TrendFlex Score

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The TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance scores improved on the week, and both maintain their uptrend signals. As the short-term market bounce approaches the top of its recent trading range, we are becoming more cautious.  Not sure what catalyst can propel the indices to new highs as we continue through a traditionally weak season.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic Uptrend 05/15/15 -0.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance Uptrend  11/03/14  +4.2% 

The TrendFlex Score increased from 2.13 to 2.20  and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. The market bounced at the recent score high of 2.42 as reported in our intra-week update, which turned out to be a profitable short term bullish trade. The weekly TrendFlex Score has languished over 2.0 and does not display any strong indication of a strong uptrend resuming.

TFS07312015  

 The Portfolio Options Table remains bullish but increasingly cautious.  We recommend keeping stops in place and raising income with covered call writing on profitable holdings.  We are cautious toward adding any long positions at this time.

POT07242015 

Click here for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

The TrendFlex Score jumped from 2.13 to 2.42 following Monday's close, suggesting that the equity markets are ripe for a bounce.  This level of the score has in the past coincided with a resumption in the short-term uptrend.  We caution however that any bounce may be followed by resistance pressure from traders looking for an exit, as we may simply see a "tradeable rally."

TFS07272015  

Equity markets continue their wide trading range. One noteworthy development is the shift in the S&P 500 "High-Low" percentage, which dipped into negative territory with Friday's close and nearly matches the low reached in October, 2014.  Both TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals weakened following this week's 2.21% decline in the S&P 500.    The Classic score shifted from neutral to bearish, although the S&P 500 remains in a wide-ranging trading range.  Our Classic signal may shift to Downtrend pending Monday's activity. The Allegiance score increased slightly (a bearish development) but remains in Uptrend.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic Uptrend 05/15/15 -2.0%
TrendFlex Allegiance Uptrend  11/03/14  +3.0% 

The TrendFlex Score incraeased from 1.98 to 2.13  and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. 

TFS07242015  

 The Portfolio Options Table remains bullish but increasingly cautious.  We recommend keeping stops in place and raising income with covered call writing on profitable holdings.  

POT07242015 

Click here for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Both TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend mode following this week's 2.41% climb in the S&P 500.    The Classic score improved from neutral to bullish, while the Allegiance score remained unchanged.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic Uptrend 05/15/15 +0.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance Uptrend  11/03/14  +5.4% 

The TrendFlex Score declined from 2.24 to 1.98 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. Now that the TrendFlex Score is in a bullish mode, its relatively high level of 1.98 provides ample room for further upside action in the market before it reaches a level considered risky for continuation of the uptrend.

TFS07172015  

 The Portfolio Options Table remains bullish  We recommend keeping stops in place and raising income with covered call writing on profitable holdings.  We suggest cautiously adding to long positions. On our StockStash page, check out our updated stock scans and their downloadable Excel files for timely long opportunities.

POT07182015 

Click here for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Both TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend mode following this week's 0.01% decline in the S&P 500.    The Classic and Allegiance scores remained unchanged.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic Uptrend 05/15/15 -2.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance Uptrend  11/03/14  +2.9% 

The TrendFlex Score declined slightly from 2.26 to 2.24 and remains above its three-week moving average. We would be looking for a decent fall below its 3-week moving average to add to long positions.  

 TFS07102015

The Portfolio Options Table remains bullish on a long term basis. We recommend keeping stops in place and raising income with covered call writing on profitable holdings.  We refrain from "adding to longs" as we await volatility to settle down and the TrendFlex Score to dip closer to the 2.0 area. We continue to suggest some opportunitstic short positions, given the potential for seasonal weakness.

POT07022015b 

Click here for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Both TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend mode following this week's 1.18% decline in the S&P 500.    The Classic signal score at 2.40 is slightly bearish. Caution toward long positions remains. Allegiance remains long-term bullish.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic Uptrend 05/15/15 -2.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance Uptrend  11/03/14  +2.9% 

The TrendFlex Score climbed slightly from 2.06 to 2.26 and remains above its three-week moving average. As noted last week, a closing TrendFlex Score near the 2.0 area in the recent past has preceded a market bounce and recovery to new highs.  We'll be looking for a bounce in the market at these levels. 

 TFS07022015

The Portfolio Options Table remains bullish on a long term basis. We recommend keeping stops in place and raising income with covered call writing on profitable holdings.  We have removed "adding to longs" as we await volatility to settle down. We continue to suggest some opportunitstic short positions, given the potential for seasonal weakness.

POT07022015b 

Click here for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

This week's 1.8% decline in the S&P 500 has done technical damage to the TrendFlex indicators.  The short-term TrendFlex Classic increased to a bearish range, closing at 2.60 (2.25 to 3.0 is considered bearish). TrendFlex Allegiance remains bullish but has weakened to 1.625. The TrendFlex Score increased from 2.06 to 2.17.

Any noteworthy bounce in equities may likely face selling pressure in the short-term (today's follow-through buying was pitifully anemic). As we write this update, the S&P 500 futures are up 17 points.  Our suggestion would be to wait out the balance of the week for stability and a reduction in volatility.  A few indicators are pushing to extreme levels (i.e. VIX) which would normally encourage a resumption of the uptrend. Again, given the potential for seasonal weakness, a trading range environment can continue through the July/August time frame.  We are not eagerly looking for buying opportunities (but we have provided an updated Volume Surge searchable screen for stocks on our StockStash page).. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic Uptrend 05/15/15 -2.8%
TrendFlex Allegiance Uptrend  11/03/14  +2.2% 

Here is the updated TrendFlex Score chart:  

 TFS06302015

Both TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend mode following this week's 0.40% decline in the S&P 500.    The Classic signal score increased from 1.70 to 2.10 which is a short term neutral rating. Particular weakness in the NASDAQ on Friday (driven by semiconductor stocks) and continued Dow Theory non-confirmation causes concern. In addition, market breadth has waned while the S&P 500 attempted a new high on June 22. For these reasons, we suggest further downside protection (i.e. hedge with S&P 500 e-mini futures).

In addition, several short-term timing signals have flashed short signals (see the note on QQQ on the Index and ETF Signals page). We track the major index ETF's using timing systems to help confirm the TrendFlex signals.  

Allegiance edged upward from 1.125 to 1.375 but remain long-term bullish.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic Uptrend 05/15/15 -1.0%
TrendFlex Allegiance Uptrend  11/03/14  +4.1% 

The TrendFlex Score climbed slightly from 2.04 to 2.06 and remains above its three-week moving average. As noted last week, a closing TrendFlex Score near the 2.0 area in the recent past has preceded a market bounce and recovery to new highs.  

 TFS06192015

The Portfolio Options Table remains bullish on a long term basis. We recommend keeping stops in place and raising income with covered call writing on profitable holdings.  We suggest adding selectively to long positions that are not over-extended.  Given this week's deterioration in the TrendFlex Classic signal, we continue to suggest some opportunitstic short positions, given the potential for seasonal weakness.

POT06052015

Click here for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Both TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend mode following this week's .76% gain in the S&P 500.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic Uptrend 05/15/15 -0.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance Uptrend  11/03/14  +4.2% 

The TrendFlex Score climbed slightly from 2.03 to 2.04 and remains above its three-week moving average. As noted last week, a closing TrendFlex Score near the 2.0 area in the recent past has preceded a market bounce and recovery to new highs.  

 TFS06192015

The Portfolio Options Table remains bullish on a long term basis. We recommend keeping stops in place and raising income with covered call writing on profitable holdings.  We suggest adding selectively to long positions that are not over-extended (check out our StockStash page for opportunities).  For the venturesome, opportunitstic short positions may be in order, given the potential for seasonal weakness.

POT06052015

 

Click here for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Despite the S&P 500's .70% decline this week (just like last week), the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend mode.      

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic Uptrend 05/15/15 -1.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance Uptrend  11/03/14  +3.8% 

The TrendFlex Score climbed to from 1.88 to 2.03 and remains above its three-week moving average.   Similar to our comment last week, given the strength of the bull market and its continued dancing around new highs, the TrendFlex Score of 2.03 suggests that a buying opportunity may be fast approaching. As can be seen in the chart below, similar leaps to near the 2.0 area preceded a market bounce and recovery to new highs.  

 TFS06122015

The Portfolio Options Table remains bullish on a long term basis. We recommend keeping stops in place and raising income with covered call writing on profitable holdings.  We suggest adding selectively to long positions (check out our StockStash page for opportunities).

POT06052015

 

Click here for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

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