TrendFlex Score

Market risk assessment tools and tactical investment opportunities driven by curated financial insight

All Trendflex signals remain unchanged for the week.   

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Uptrend  10/12/15 +3.6%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend  10/26/15 +0.7%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  10/19/15 +2.8%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 -1.2%

The TrendFlex Score remained unchanged at 1.64 and remains below its three-week moving average. 

TFS11202015

There is a modest bullish shift to the Portfolio Options Table this week.  

Portfolio Strategies
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Ths week's 3.63% decline in the S&P 500 was characterized by a sharp decline in the S&P 500 High-Low percentage, one of the TrendFlex signal  indicators and enough to shift the composite scores of the signals to a neutral stance (see charts in their links below).  

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Uptrend  10/12/15 +0.4%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend  10/26/15 -2.5%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  10/19/15 -0.4%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +2.1%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.66 to 1.64 and remains just barely below its three-week moving average.  A close above its moving average would signal a bearish event.

TFS11132015

The Portfolio Options Table is more cautious following this week's activity.  Suggested strategies are highlighted in red.  Click on the strategy to see more detailed options.

Portfolio Strategies
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

There are no changes to the TrendFlex signals at this week's close of the S&P 500.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic 1 Uptrend  10/12/15 +4.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend  10/26/15 +1.2%
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  10/19/15 +3.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 -1.6%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.68 to 1.66 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  

TFS11062015

The Portfolio Options Table is unchanged for the week.    

POT10302015 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

There are no changes to the TrendFlex signals at this week's close of the S&P 500 (TrendFlex Allegiance shifted to uptrend at Monday's open).  TrendFlex Allegiance II remains on downtrend, as potential resistance surfaces with the S&P 500's attempt to match its summer highs.  

 

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic 1 Uptrend  10/12/15 +3.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend  10/26/15 -0.2%
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  10/19/15 +2.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 -0.7%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.74 to 1.68 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  

TFS10302015

The Portfolio Options Table is more bullish.  Caution is suggested however as the bounce from the August lows is appearing overbought and facing resistance.  An e-Mini S&P 500 short may be in order to hedge long positions.  

POT10302015 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

The bullish market profile continues to improve.  TrendFlex Allegiance shifts to uptrend at Monday's open.  TrendFlex Allegiance II remains on downtrend, underscoring the potential resistance we may see should the S&P 500 attempt to match its summer highs.  

 

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic 1 Uptrend  10/12/15 +3.0%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Downtrend; shift to Uptrend 10/26  8/24/15 -5.8%
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  10/19/15 +2.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 -0.5%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.90 to 1.74 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  

TFS10232015

There is no change to the Portfolio Options Table this week.  

POT10092015 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

The TrendFlex Classic score shifted to Uptrend at Monday 10/12 open.  The TrendFlex Classic II Score (our bond-based risk premium model)  will shift to an Uptrend on Monday, 10/19.  The longer-term Allegiance signals remain at Downtrend.

The Classic scores, turning bullish within the last two weeks, demonstrate how short-term technical signals can convey a bullish position within an overall bearish-looking landscape (as indicated by the longer-term Allegiance scores).  On a short-term basis, the odds of further gains to the upside appear favorable, given the relatively high TrendFlex Score.  Although the score closed at 1.90 on Friday (see chart below), it remains below its three-week moving average (a bullish development).  In addition, the score has a ways to go before it becomes risky to add to long positions (1.60 or lower may suffice as a low score in this environment).  For longer-term investors, we anticipate further resistance pressure should the S&P 500 approach its summer highs. In conclusion, the recent upside in the markets appear to be a countertrend rally.  A firm and sustained close above the summer highs is needed to shift this characterization of the equity markets.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic 1 Uptrend  08/24/15 +0.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Downtrend  8/24/15 -3.9%
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend; shift to Uptrend 10/19 9/28/15 -5.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +1.6%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.98 to 1.90 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  

TFS10162015

There is no change to the Portfolio Options Table this week.  

POT10092015 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

The TrendFlex Classic score improved to Uptrend on the week (entry price will be Monday's opening price of the S&P 500).  All other TrendFlex signals remain in downtrends, despite the 3.26% gain in the S&P 500 this week, as technical resistance points loom further ahead on the upside.  

Most major indices have entered overbought levels following the August selloff.  Many market technicians are viewing this current bounce as a counter-trend rally.  

 

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic 1 Downtrend; Shift to Uptrend 10/12 08/24/15 -2.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Downtrend  8/24/15 -3.0%
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend 9/28/15 -4.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +2.5%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 2.32 to 1.98 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  

TFS10092015

There is a more bullish shift to the Portfolio Options Table this week.  

POT10092015 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

The Trendflex Allegiance signal shifts from Cash to Downtrend at Monday's open.   TrendFlex Classic shifted to a Downtrend effective with Monday's market open.  Other signals remain unchanged.  

Despite an impressive bounce from near the August lows, technical damage supports continued range-trading.  Surpassing the 2000 level on the S&P 500 will be key as to whether a sustained uptrend can be established.  We have been selling covered calls and identifying some opportunistic shorts to help hedge long positions.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic 1 Downtrend 08/24/15 -0.7%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash, shift to Downtrend 10/5/15 8/24/15 +0.0%
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend 9/28/15 -1.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +5.8%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 2.36 to 2.32 (from Monday's intra-week update), while closing above its three-week moving average.  

TFS10022015

There is no change to the Portfolio Options Table this week.  

POT09182015 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Monday's TrendFlex Score closed at 2.36, nearing heights previously associated with short-term bottoms in the equity markets.  Despite the technical carnage (which is clearly self-reinforcing as chart-followers and technical trading algorithms all follow the same tune - have we heard enough about that death cross yet?), stocks with compelling valuations are beginning to surface.  We prefer to see a reading in the 2.50 range to add to longs, but we may dabble a bit at this juncture.

See the chart below, where peaks in the TrendFlex Score coincide with trend shifts to the upside.

TFS09282015

 

 

 

9/25/15 Update:

Classic Traditional will shift to a downtrend at Monday's open, following a brief uptrend signal.  There are no signal changes othewise for this week.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic 1 Downtrend 08/24/15 +1.8%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash 8/24/15 +0.0%
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend; shift to Downtrend on 9/28 9/9/15 -0.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +6.9%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 2.23 to 2.17, while closing even with its three-week moving average.  

 TFS09252015  

There is no change to the Portfolio Options Table this week.  

POT09182015 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Classic Traditional will shift to a downtrend at Monday's open, following a brief uptrend signal.  There are no signal changes othewise for this week.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic 1 Downtrend 08/24/15 +1.8%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash 8/24/15 +0.0%
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend; shift to Downtrend on 9/28 9/9/15 -0.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +6.9%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 2.23 to 2.17, while closing even with its three-week moving average.  

 TFS09252015  

There is no change to the Portfolio Options Table this week.  

POT09182015 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

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