TrendFlex Score

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Technical indicators took a turn for the worse, following this week's 3.10% decline in the S&P 500.  The TrendFlex Classic I and TrendFlex Allegiance I signals shift to Downtrend at the opening on Monday, February 8.       

Performance is through market close on 2/05/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Neutral (Cash); Downtrend 2/8  1/4/2016 0.0% -7.8%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash); Downtrend 2/8 12/10/15 0.0% -8.2%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +8.9% -8.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +9.8% -9.0%

The TrendFlex Score increased from 2.39 to 2.52, and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.   

TFS02052016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.  We have removed our suggestion to add selectively to oversold longs as we anticipate another leg down in the market.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

End.

There are no changes to the TrendFlex signals this week.     

Performance is through market close on 1/29/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Neutral (Cash)  1/4/2016 0.0% -4.8%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 0.0% -5.3%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +5.6% -5.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +6.4% -6.0%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 2.54 to 2.39, and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.   

TFS01292016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.  However, adding to longs opportunistically in anticipation of a continued bounce in equities may be in order.  Likewise, protecting short positions may be timely.  Although the short-term character of the market suggests that a counter-trend rally is possible, the intermediate to long-term environment is flat to bearish. 

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

There are no changes to the TrendFlex signals this week.   Extremes in short-term readings noted here earlier this week manifested themselves in a bounce as expected; signals are mixed as to whether a trend shift will be sustained.   

Performance is through market close on 1/22/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Neutral (Cash)  1/4/2016 0.0% -6.4%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 0.0% -6.9%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +7.4% -6.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +8.3% -7.7%

The TrendFlex Score increased from 2.46 to 2.54, remaining above its three-week moving average.  It settled down from an extreme of 2.65 earlier in the week, supporting the potential for a bounce.   

TFS01222016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.  However, adding to longs opportunistically in anticipation of a bounce in equities may be in order.  Likewise, protecting short positions may be timely.  Although the short-term character of the market suggests that a counter-trend rally is possible, the intermediate to long-term environment is flat to bearish. 

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

TrendFlex Classic I and TrendFlex Allegiance I signals moved further toward extreme readings following this week's 2.17% decline in the S&P 500.  Given our continued belief of an impending bounce in equities (note this week's extreme TrendFlex Score), we will keep these signals in cash. 

There is no change to the TrendFlex Classic II and TrendFlex Allegiance II signals.    

Performance is through market close on 1/15/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Neutral (Cash)  1/4/2016 0.0% -7.7%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 0.0% -8.2%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +8.9% -8.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +9.8% -8.9%

The TrendFlex Score soared from 2.30 to 2.46 on the week, remaining above its three-week moving average.  The extreme reading of the TrendFlex Score is at a level that in the past would suggest a shift in the short-term trend. For this reason we are watching for a bounce in the equity markets.  

On the other hand, you will notice that at the lows in August, the TrendFlex Score climbed to 2.56 (week ending August 21)  yet the S&P 500 continued to fall before settling down near 1882 at the end of September, with a couple of bounces in between.  There is much techical talk about the S&P 500 finding major support at 1600.  The likelihood of that occurring will be surmized should the S&P 500 fall below current support in the 1850-1900 range (where it is today).

TFS01152016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.  However, adding to longs opportunistically in anticipation of a bounce in equities may be in order.  Likewise, protecting short positions may be timely.  Although the short-term character of the market suggests that a counter-trend rally is possible, the intermediate to long-term environment is flat to bearish. 

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

1/15/16 Intra-Day Update:

The TrendFlex Score reached 2.60 this morning, reflecting an extreme that has in the past preceded a shift in the short-term trend to Uptrend. Stay tuned for further updates this weekend.

 

1/8/2016 Update: 

As the S&P 500 declined 6% on the week, the TrendFlex Classic I and TrendFlex Allegiance I signals scored toward the extreme end of bearishness (2.50 and 2.60 on a scale of 3.0, respectively). These signals are based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. As such, we believe that this market extreme suggests that such signal bearishness is a potential (contrarian) short-term indicator for a counter-trend rally. These signals will remain in cash.

There is no change to the TrendFlex Classic II and TrendFlex Allegiance II signals.    

Performance is through market close on 1/8/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Neutral (Cash)  1/4/2016 0.00% -5.7%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 +0.0% -6.1%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +6.6% -6.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +7.4% -6.9%

The TrendFlex Score soared from 1.82 to 2.30 on the week, closing above its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  The extreme reading of the TrendFlex Score is at a level that in the past would suggest a shift in the short-term trend.  For this reason we are watching for a bounce in the equity markets.

TFS1082016 

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.  However, adding to longs opportunistically in anticipation of a bounce in equities may be in order.  Likewise, protecting short positions may be timely.  Although the short-term character of the market suggests that a counter-trend rally is possible, the intermediate to long-term environment is flat to bearish. 

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

The TrendFlex Classic I signal will shift to neutral (cash) at Monday's open, as market internal indicators improved a bit on the week.  All other signals remain unchanged.   

Performance is through market close on 12/24/15.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Downtrend (Neutral 1/4/16)  12/21/15 -1.6% +1.7%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 +0.0% -1.2%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +0.2% +0.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +1.0% +1.0%

The TrendFlex Score declined from 1.87 to 1.82 on the week, and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  

 TFS12312015

Given the bullish shift in the short-term TrendFlex Score and the TrendFlex Classic 1 signal, cautiously adding to long positions may be in order.   

Portfolio Strategies
Reduce ongs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

The TrendFlex Classic I signal shifted to Downtrend at Monday's open.  All other signals remain unchanged.   

Performance is through market close on 12/24/15.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Downtrend  12/21/15 -2.5% +2.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 +0.0% +0.6%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 -0.6% +0.6%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +0.2% -0.2%

The TrendFlex Score declined from 2.18 to 1.87on the week, and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  

 TFS12242015

Given the bullish shift in the short-term TrendFlex Score, cautiously adding to long positions may be in order.   

Portfolio Strategies
Reduce ongs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

The TrendFlex Classic I signal shifted to Downtrend following this week's activity. All other signals remain unchanged.   

Performance is through market close on 12/18/15.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Neutral (Cash); shift to Downtrend 12/21. 12/10/15 +0.0% -2.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 +0.0% -2.1%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +2.1% -2.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +3.0% -2.9%

The TrendFlex Score climbed from 1.89 to 2.18 on the week, remaining above its three-week moving average.  

TFS12182015

Capital preservation is suggested at this juncture in the market.  We will again be looking for a potential bounce this week and perhaps a smoother ride into year-end.   

Portfolio Strategies
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

As noted in our Wednesday night update, the TrendFlex Classic I signals shifted to Neutral (Cash), while TrendFlex Classic II signal shifted to Downtrend, all at the market open on Thursday, 12/10. . TrendFlex Allegiance II remains in a Downtrend. Performance results of the closed signals can be found in the link below.   

Performance is through market close on 12/11/15.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 +0.0% -1.7%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 +0.0% -1.7%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +1.8% -1.7%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +2.6% -2.5%

The TrendFlex Score climbed to 1.89 on the week, closing above its three-week moving average.  

TFS12112015

Capital preservation is suggested at this juncture in the market.  We will be looking for a potential bounce this week and perhaps a smoother ride into year-end.   

Portfolio Strategies
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Following the market close of 12/9/2015, the TrendFlex Classic Traditional (credit risk premium-based signal) shifted to Downtrend. TrendFlex Classic and TrendFlex Allegiance shifted to Neutral (Cash). TrendFlex Allegiance Traditional remains in a Downtrend. The closing price of the current signals (and opening price of new signals) will be based on the opening price of the S&P 500 on Thursday, 12/10.  

Updates to the TrendFlex Score and Portfolio Strategies will be provided following the market close on 12/11/2015.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Uptrend;shift to  Neutral 12/10  10/12/15 +1.6%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend; shift to Neutral 12/10 10/26/15 -1.3%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend; shift to Downtrend 12/10 10/19/15 +0.8%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 -0.8%

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