TrendFlex Score

Market risk assessment tools and tactical investment opportunities driven by curated financial insight

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance CR both remain on Buy signals.        

Performance is through market close on 7/22/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend 6/29/16 +6.5% +6.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +7.7% +7.7%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.48 to 1.41 and remain even with its three-week moving average. As can be seen from the chart below, TrendFlex Score readings at this low level have preceded setback in equity markets in the past.

TFS07232016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance trend-following systems remain on Buy signals.  TrendFlex Classic TF has reached its most bullish score to-date (can't get any lower - or more bullish - than a 1.0).  Market breadth remains strongly positive.  Sentiment remains at a bullish extreme and warrants some protection of capital at these levels.       

Performance is through market close on 7/22/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend    7/8/16 +3.2% +3.2& 1.000
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +3.6% +3.6% 1.250
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains a bit defensive, refraining from adding long positions at this time.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

All TrendFlex signals are long.  Updates have been posted on the TrendFlex Results (link below) for trades between 6/17 and 7/15, based on backtested results.  The TrendFlex Classic II signal experienced a fair amount of whip-saw action following the Brexit news.  Since settling down at the end of June, however, signals have been firmly bullish.  The risk now is a short-term overbought condition as noted in the TrendFlex Score below.      

Performance is through market close on 7/15/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Uptrend    7/8/16 +2.6% +2.6& 1.200
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend  5/31/16 +2.9% +2.9% 1.250
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend 6/29/16 +5.8% +5.8%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  4/13/16 +4.2% +4.2%  

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.35 to 1.48 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development indicating short-term risk to equities.

TFS07152016 

 The Portfolio Strategies chart is a bit more defensive.        

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

TrendFlex Classic II shifted to a sell signal effective (backdated) at the 6/13 market close.  TrendFlex Classic I shifts from long to neutral at the 6/17 market close.     

Performance is through market close on 6/17/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Cash    6/17/16 0.0% 0.0% 1.900
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend  5/31/16 -1.4% -1.4% 1.375
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend 6/13/16 +0.4% -0.4%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +2.6% +2.6%  

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.60 to 1.66 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.

TFS06172016 

 The Portfolio Strategies chart is a bit more defensive.        

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

The next update to the TrendFlex Score and Signals will be following the market close of 7/15/16.

 

There are no changes to the signals this week.    

Performance is through market close on 6/10/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Cash; Uptrend 5/31    5/31/16 -0.2% -0.2% 1.100
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash; Uptrend 5/31  5/31/16 -0.2% -0.2% 1.375
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +8.2% +8.2%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +3.8% +3.8%  

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.62 to 1.60 and is even with its three-week moving average. 

 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains supportive of the bullish trend.        

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

The TrendFlex Classic I and Allegiance I signals moved to Uptrend on Monday.  There are no other changes to the signals this week.    

Performance is through market close on 6/03/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Cash; Uptrend 5/31    5/2/16 +0.0% +0.0% 1.100
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash; Uptrend 5/31  5/2/16 +0.0% +0.0% 1.375
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +8.4% +8.4%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +4.0% +4.0%  

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.59 to 1.62 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

 TFS06032016

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains supportive of the bullish trend.        

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

The TrendFlex Classic I and Allegiance I signals improved markedly this week.  Both will shift from cash to Uptrend at Tuesday's opening.   

Performance is through market close on 5/27/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Cash; Uptrend 5/31    5/2/16 +0.0% +1.5% 1.100
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash; Uptrend 5/31  5/2/16 +0.0% +1.5% 1.375
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +8.4% +8.4%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +4.0% +4.0%  

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.67 to 1.59 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

 TFS05272016

The Portfolio Strategies chart recommends adding to long positions at this time.       

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

There is no change to the TrendFlex signals this week.   

Performance is through market close on 5/20/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Cash    5/2/16 +0.0% -0.7% 1.900
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash  5/2/16 +0.0% -0.7% 1.875
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +5.9% +5.9%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +1.6% +1.6%  

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.63 to 1.67 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. Further weakness in momentum signals have caused the score to increase.

 TFS05202016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

TrendFlex Classic I and Allegiance I signals remain in cash as of Monday, 5/2. The TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance II signals remain unchanged for the week, although both have continued to weaken (the shorter-term Classic signal is approaching a sell signal for the S&P 500.  

Performance is through market close on 5/13/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Cash    5/2/16 +0.0% -1.0% 2.100
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash  5/2/16 +0.0% -1.0% 1.875
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +5.7% +5.7%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +1.4% +1.4%  

The TrendFlex Score remained unchanged at 1.63 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. As pointed out over the last three weeks and evident in the chart below, this level suggested a shift in equities to a downtrend. 

TFS05132016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

TrendFlex Classic I and Allegiance I signals moved to cash at the Monday, 5/2. The TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance II signals remain unchanged for the week, although both have weakened through Friday's market activity. 

Performance is through market close on 5/06/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Cash    5/2/16 +0.0% -0.5% 2.100
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash  5/2/16 +0.0% -0.5% 1.875
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +6.2% +6.2%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +1.9% +1.9%  

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.50 to 1.63 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. As pointed out over the last two weeks and evident in the chart below, this level may indicate a shift in equities to a downtrend. We would not be buyers in this market at present, and have added short positions in e-Mini S&P 500 futures to hedge a long portfolio.

TFS05062016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

Signifying short-term market weakness, the TrendFlex Classic I and Allegiance I signals move to cash at the Monday, 5/2 opening price of the S&P 500. The TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance II signals remain unchanged for the week; these signals tend to have a longer-term perspective based on developments in the credit markets.

Performance is through market close on 4/29/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Uptrend; to Cash 5/2   3/2/16 +4.5% +4.5% 1.900
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend; to Cash 5/2 3/31/16 +0.1% +0.1% 1.875
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +6.6% +6.6%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +2.3% +2.3%  

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.52 to 1.50 and remains below its three-week moving average. As still evident in the chart below, this level may indicate a shift in equities to a downtrend. We would not be buyers in this market at present, and have added short positions in e-Mini S&P 500 futures to hedge a long portfolio.

 TFS04292016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

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