TrendFlex Score

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TrendFlex Classic I and Allegiance I signals moved to cash at the Monday, 5/2. The TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance II signals remain unchanged for the week, although both have weakened through Friday's market activity. 

Performance is through market close on 5/06/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Cash    5/2/16 +0.0% -0.5% 2.100
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash  5/2/16 +0.0% -0.5% 1.875
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +6.2% +6.2%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +1.9% +1.9%  

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.50 to 1.63 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. As pointed out over the last two weeks and evident in the chart below, this level may indicate a shift in equities to a downtrend. We would not be buyers in this market at present, and have added short positions in e-Mini S&P 500 futures to hedge a long portfolio.

TFS05062016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

Signifying short-term market weakness, the TrendFlex Classic I and Allegiance I signals move to cash at the Monday, 5/2 opening price of the S&P 500. The TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance II signals remain unchanged for the week; these signals tend to have a longer-term perspective based on developments in the credit markets.

Performance is through market close on 4/29/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Uptrend; to Cash 5/2   3/2/16 +4.5% +4.5% 1.900
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend; to Cash 5/2 3/31/16 +0.1% +0.1% 1.875
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +6.6% +6.6%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +2.3% +2.3%  

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.52 to 1.50 and remains below its three-week moving average. As still evident in the chart below, this level may indicate a shift in equities to a downtrend. We would not be buyers in this market at present, and have added short positions in e-Mini S&P 500 futures to hedge a long portfolio.

 TFS04292016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

The TrendFlex signals remain unchanged for the week.     

Performance is through market close on 4/22/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Uptrend   3/2/16 +5.8% +5.8% 1.500
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend 3/31/16 +1.3% +1.3% 1.875
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +8.0% +8.0%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +3.6% +3.6%  

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.59 to 1.52 and remains below its three-week moving average. As evident in the chart below, this level may indicate a shift in equities to a downtrend. We would not be buyers in this market at present.

 TFS04222016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

The TrendFlex signals remain unchanged for the week, improving slightly following this week's 1.6% gain in the S&P 500.     

Performance is through market close on 4/15/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Uptrend   3/2/16 +5.3% +5.3% 1.500
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend 3/31/16 +0.8% +0.8% 1.875
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +7.4% +7.4%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +3.0% +3.0%  

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.55 to 1.59 and remains even with its three-week moving average. As evident in the chart below, this level may indicate a shift in equities to a downtrend. We would not be buyers in this market at present.

 TFS04152016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

The TrendFlex signals remain unchanged for the week, although Allegiance I has been waffling between neutral and long, and Classic I slipped markedly but remains long.    

Performance is through market close on 4/08/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Uptrend   3/2/16 +3.6% +3.6% 1.700
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend 3/31/16 -0.8% -0.8% 1.875
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +5.7 +5.7%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +1.4% +1.4%  

The TrendFlex Score declined from 1.60 to 1.55, and remains below its three-week moving average. Based on performance during the essentially flat market since May 2015, this level may indicate a shift in equities to a downtrend. Considering the reading in the Classis I and Allegiance I scores, hedging longs may now be in order.

 TFS04082016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.  We have removed the "add to longs" suggestion, added "sell calls"  and removed "hedge or reduce shorts."    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

The TrendFlex signals remain unchanged for the week.    

Performance is through market close on 4/01/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

Current

Trend

Score

Prior

Trend

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Trend Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Uptrend   3/2/16 +4.9% +4.9% 1.100 1.100
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend 3/31/16 0..4% +0.4% 1.625 1.875
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +7.10 +7.0%    
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +2.6% +2.6%    

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.57 to 1.60, and remains slightly below its three-week moving average.   

 TFS04012016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital, however we suggest selectively adding to long positions given the improved reading in the TrendFlex Score.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

Intra-Week Update

The TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Signal shifted to Uptrend, effective with the market open on 3/31.  The S&P 500 High/Low Percentage indicator shifted strongly (bullishly) to the upside, causing the Trend Score to decrease from 1.875 to 1.625.

 

3/25/16 Update:

The TrendFlex signals remain unchanged for the week.    

Performance is through market close on 3/25/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

Current

Trend

Score

Prior

Trend

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Trend Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Uptrend   3/2/16 +3.0% +3.0% 1.300 1.100
TrendFlex Allegiance 1  Neutral (Cash) 3/10/16 0.0% +2.3% 1.875 1.875
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +5.1% +5.1%    
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +0.8% +0.8%    

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.66 to 1.57, and remains below its three-week moving average.   

TFS03252016 

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital, however we suggest selectively adding to long positions given the improved reading in the TrendFlex Score.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

The TrendFlex signals remain unchanged for the week.    

Performance is through market close on 3/18/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

Current

Trend

Score

Prior

Trend

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Trend Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Uptrend   3/2/16 +3.7% +3.7% 1.100 1.300
TrendFlex Allegiance 1  Neutral (Cash) 3/10/16 0.0% +2.9% 1.875 2.125
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +5.8% +5.8%    
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +1.5% +1.5%    

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.72 to 1.66, and remains below its three-week moving average.   

TFS03182016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital, however we suggest selectively adding to long positions given the improved reading in the TrendFlex Score.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

TrendFlex Allegiance I shifted to Neutral (Cash) this week, while Allegiance II shifted to Uptrend. Classic signals remain in Uptrend.   

Performance is through market close on 3/11/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

Current

Trend

Score

Prior

Trend

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).

Trend Score Guide:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Uptrend   3/2/16 +2.3% +2.3% 1.300 1.400
TrendFlex Allegiance 1  Neutral (Cash) 3/10/16 0.0% +1.6% 2.125 2.375
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +4.4% +4.4%    
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend (3/14 open) 4/6/15 +2.1% -2.1%    

The TrendFlex Score decreased slightly from 1.73 to 1.72, and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.   

TFS03112016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital, however we suggest selectively adding to long positions given the improved reading in the TrendFlex Score.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

Both TrendFlex Classic signals shifted to uptrends this week.  The longer-term Allegiance signals remain in downtrends (although Allegiance 1 is closing on to a neutral signal).  

Performance is through market close on 3/04/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

Current

Trend

Score

Prior

Trend

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).

Trend Score Guide:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Uptrend   3/2/16 +1.2% +1.2% 1.400 2.300
TrendFlex Allegiance 1  Downtrend  2/8/16 -5.2% +5.5% 2.375 2.625
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +3.2% +3.2%    
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +3.2% -3.1%    

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 2.08 to 1.73, and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.   

TFS03042016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital, however we suggest selectively adding to long positions given the improved reading in the TrendFlex Score.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

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