TrendFlex Score

Market risk assessment tools and tactical investment opportunities driven by curated financial insight

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and the longer-term Allegiance signal remain on a buy.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend 9/23/16 -0.9% -0.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +6.7% +6.7%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.63 to 1.70 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. We deem this slightly bearish as the score itself is not in the low range of 1.30-1.40 that would suggest a more pronounced pullback.

TFS10072016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

There are no changes to the TrendFlex trend-following signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 0.0% -0.2% 2.100
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +2.6% +2.6% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish albeit with some hedging suggested.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and the longer-term Allegiance signal remain on a buy.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend 9/23/16 -1.9% -1.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +5.6% +5.6%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.70 to 1.73 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. 

TFS10142016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

There are no changes to the TrendFlex trend-following signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 0.0% -1.2% 2.100
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +1.6% +1.6% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish albeit with some hedging suggested.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and the longer-term Allegiance signal remain on a buy.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend 9/23/16 -0.2% -0.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +7.4% +7.4%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score declined from 1.68 to 1.63 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

TFS09302016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

TrendFlex Classic  shifted to Cash at the market open on 9/26/16. Allegiance trend-following systems remain on Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 0.0% +0.5% 1.900
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +3.2% +3.2% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish albeit with some hedging suggested.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR flipped to a BUY signal at the 9/22/16 close  (signal effective with the 9/23/16 market open). The longer-term Allegiance signal remains on a buy.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend 9/23/16 -0.4% -0.4%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +7.2% +7.2%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score declined from 1.80 to 1.68 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

TFS09232016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

TrendFlex Classic will shift to Cash at the market open on 9/26/16. Allegiance trend-following systems remain on Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Downtrend 9/9/16 -2.0% +2.1% 1.900
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +3.1% +3.1% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart is a bit more bullish this week.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

9/22/16 Market Close Update

TrendFlex Classic CR shifted to a BUY signal at today's close, which will be effective with the opening price of the S&P 500 on 9/23/16.

TFCCR09222016

 

 

 

TrendFlex Classic CR flipped to a SELL signal at the 9/9/16 close  (signal effective with the 9/12/16 market open). The longer-term Allegiance signal remains on a buy.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Downtrend  9/9/16 -0.9% +0.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +5.9% +5.9%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score declined slightly from 1.81 to 1.80 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. 

TFS09162016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

TrendFlex Classic shifted to a Downtrend at the 9/9/16 close (signal effective with the 9/12/16 market open). Allegiance trend-following systems remain on Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Downtrend 9/9/16 -0.9% +0.9% 1.625
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +1.9% +1.9% 2.30
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains a bit defensive; we have removed the "Add to Longs" suggestion as we sort through the market's recent sell-off.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR flipped to a SELL signal at Friday's close (investors were warned of shifts in the TrendFlex Classic CR trend in two recent blogs this week).  The new SELL signal will be executed at the 9/12/16 market open. The longer-term Allegiance signal remains on a buy.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend; Downtrend at 9/12 open 6/29/16 -1.9% -1.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +5.4% +5.4%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score soared from 1.45 to 1.81 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. 

TFS09092016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

TrendFlex Classic shifted to a Downtrend signal effective with the 9/12/16 market open. Allegiance trend-following systems remain on Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend; Downtrend 9/12/16 open   7/8/16 +1.0% +1.0% 1.625
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +1.3% +1.3% 2.30
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains a bit defensive; we have removed the "Add to Longs" suggestion as we sort through the market's recent sell-off.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance CR both remain on Buy signals.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend 6/29/16 +0.5% +0.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +8.0% +8.0%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.48 to 1.45 and closed below its three-week moving average, remaining bullish. 

TFS09022016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance trend-following systems remain on Buy signals.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend    7/8/16 +3.5% +3.5& 1.60
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +3.8% +3.8% 1.25
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains a bit defensive, but we will consider adding long positions in stocks that are not over-extended in price.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance CR both remain on Buy signals.  The CR signals have been quite strong, perhaps signaling the potential for a breakout of this recent trading range pattern.  The TrendFlex score improved (bullishly) this week (due in part to improved credit risk premiums).  So even though there appears to be more downside risk than upside risk at these levels, various technical signals are suggesting to hold longs (doesn't hurt to protect with some e-Mini SPX shorts either)!

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend 6/29/16 +0.0% +0.0%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +7.4% +7.4%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.54 to 1.48 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

TFS08262016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance trend-following systems remain on Buy signals.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend    7/8/16 +2.9% +2.9& 1.60
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +3.3% +3.3% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains a bit defensive, refraining from adding long positions at this time.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance CR both remain on Buy signals.    

Performance is through market close on 8/19/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend 6/29/16 +0.7% +0.7%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +8.2% +8.2%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.50 to 1.54 and remains above its three-week moving average, underscoring the risk in equities near their new highs. As can be seen from the chart below, TrendFlex Score readings at this low level have preceded setback in equity markets in the past.

TFS08192016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance trend-following systems remain on Buy signals.  Both scores turned less bullish this week; a cautionary indicator at these levels.   

Performance is through market close on 8/19/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend    7/8/16 +3.6% +3.6& 1.40
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +4.0% +4.0% 1.25
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains a bit defensive, refraining from adding long positions at this time.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance CR both remain on Buy signals.    

Performance is through market close on 8/12/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend 6/29/16 +0.7% +0.7%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +8.2% +8.2%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.47 to 1.50 and remains above its three-week moving average, underscoring the risk in equities near their new highs. As can be seen from the chart below, TrendFlex Score readings at this low level have preceded setback in equity markets in the past.

TFS08122016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance trend-following systems remain on Buy signals.  TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance both have reached its most bullish score to-date (can't get any lower - or more bullish - than a 1.0).  Market breadth remains strongly positive.  Sentiment remains at a bullish extreme and warrants some protection of capital at these levels.       

Performance is through market close on 8/5/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend    7/8/16 +3.7% +3.7& 1.000
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +4.0% +4.0% 1.000
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains a bit defensive, refraining from adding long positions at this time.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

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