TrendFlex Score

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  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains  Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +2.0% +2.0%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +8.1% +8.1%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score remained unchanged at 1.64 and closed equal to its three-week moving average.  

TFS11182016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 2.0% 2.0% 1.300
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 3.9% 3.9% 1.125
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.

LQDGap111816

A large gap in the LQD/SPX ratio vs. its moving average suggests that the recent rally may need a breather. Likewise, the CBOE VIX reading has fallen well below its moving average (see top portion of chart below), although Put/Call is neutral.  The VIX extreme is worth watching, however it can meander at this low level for several days. 

VIX111816

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, especially with regards to recent market strength and positive seasonality.  Partial hedges to long positions may be in order though as we observe the two Extremes indicators noted above.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR signal shifted to Long at the market close of 11/8, as noted in our intra-week update. The longer-term Allegiance signal remains  Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +1.2% +1.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +7.2% +7.2%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.83 to 1.64 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. This week we saw some market improvement in indicators that have lagged for a while: our Copper/US Bond ratio leaped above its 200-day moving average, and the SPX/US Bond ratio pushed to a new high. 

TFS11112016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF signal shifted from Cash to Long this week. The longer-term Allegiance signal remained in Uptrend. Both are strongly bullish with scores of 1.30 and 1.125, respectively.   

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 1.2% 1.2% 1.300
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 3.1% 3.1% 1.125
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX Reading
  2. CBOE Put/Call Ratio
  3. TED Spread
  4. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.

LQD Gap

A large gap in the LQD/SPX ratio vs. its moving average suggests that the recent rally may need a breather. 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish. Given recent market strength and positive seasonality, hedging long positions is less encouraging at this time.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

11/10/2016 Intra-Week Update:

Markets sure can move fast!  TrendFlex Classic CR shifted to a Buy signal at the market close of 11/8/16.  We will belatedly note the opening price of 11/9 as the new signal timing.

TFCCR11102016

 

TrendFlex Classic CR signal shifted to Short at the market open on 10/31. The longer-term Allegiance signal remains  Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 10/31/16 +2.1% -2.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +3.3% +3.3%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.81 to 1.83 and remains above its three-week moving average. Despite the weakness in several momentum indicators, the TrendFlex Score has not shot upward much as two contrarian indicators, namely VIX and Put/Call, remain at elevated extremes (their score components are bullish). 

TFS11042016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

There are no changes to the TrendFlex trend-following signals this week.  TrendFlex Classic TF is slightly bearish at 2.30, however, we will keep that one in cash based on the TrendFlex Score holding its own.   

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 0.0% -3.4% 2.300
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 -0.7% -0.7% 1.625
Historic Performance          

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish albeit with some hedging suggested.  Given recent market volatility, hedging a long portfolio with e-Mini S&P 500 futures shorts may be a prudent short-term strategy.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR signal closed below its moving average on Friday, 10/28.  The signal shifts to Short at the opening price of the S&P 500 on 10/31. The longer-term Allegiance signal remains  Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long (Short at 10/31 open) 9/23/16 -2.2% -2.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +5.3% +5.3%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.73 to 1.81 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. 

TFS10282016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

There are no changes to the TrendFlex trend-following signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 0.0% -1.5% 2.100
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +1.3% +1.3% 1.625
Historic Performance          

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish albeit with some hedging suggested.  Given recent market volatility, hedging a long portfolio with e-Mini S&P 500 futures shorts may be a prudent short-term strategy.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and the longer-term Allegiance signal remain on a buy.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend 9/23/16 -1.5% -1.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +6.0% +6.0%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score remained unchanged for the week at 1.73 and is even with its three-week moving average. 

TFS10212016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

There are no changes to the TrendFlex trend-following signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 0.0% -0.8% 2.100
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +2.0% +2.0% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish albeit with some hedging suggested.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and the longer-term Allegiance signal remain on a buy.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend 9/23/16 -0.9% -0.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +6.7% +6.7%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.63 to 1.70 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. We deem this slightly bearish as the score itself is not in the low range of 1.30-1.40 that would suggest a more pronounced pullback.

TFS10072016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

There are no changes to the TrendFlex trend-following signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 0.0% -0.2% 2.100
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +2.6% +2.6% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish albeit with some hedging suggested.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and the longer-term Allegiance signal remain on a buy.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend 9/23/16 -1.9% -1.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +5.6% +5.6%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.70 to 1.73 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. 

TFS10142016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

There are no changes to the TrendFlex trend-following signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 0.0% -1.2% 2.100
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +1.6% +1.6% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish albeit with some hedging suggested.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and the longer-term Allegiance signal remain on a buy.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend 9/23/16 -0.2% -0.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +7.4% +7.4%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score declined from 1.68 to 1.63 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

TFS09302016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

TrendFlex Classic  shifted to Cash at the market open on 9/26/16. Allegiance trend-following systems remain on Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 0.0% +0.5% 1.900
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +3.2% +3.2% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish albeit with some hedging suggested.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR flipped to a BUY signal at the 9/22/16 close  (signal effective with the 9/23/16 market open). The longer-term Allegiance signal remains on a buy.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend 9/23/16 -0.4% -0.4%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +7.2% +7.2%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score declined from 1.80 to 1.68 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

TFS09232016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

TrendFlex Classic will shift to Cash at the market open on 9/26/16. Allegiance trend-following systems remain on Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Downtrend 9/9/16 -2.0% +2.1% 1.900
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +3.1% +3.1% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart is a bit more bullish this week.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

9/22/16 Market Close Update

TrendFlex Classic CR shifted to a BUY signal at today's close, which will be effective with the opening price of the S&P 500 on 9/23/16.

TFCCR09222016

 

 

 

TrendFlex Classic CR flipped to a SELL signal at the 9/9/16 close  (signal effective with the 9/12/16 market open). The longer-term Allegiance signal remains on a buy.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Downtrend  9/9/16 -0.9% +0.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +5.9% +5.9%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score declined slightly from 1.81 to 1.80 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. 

TFS09162016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

TrendFlex Classic shifted to a Downtrend at the 9/9/16 close (signal effective with the 9/12/16 market open). Allegiance trend-following systems remain on Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Downtrend 9/9/16 -0.9% +0.9% 1.625
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +1.9% +1.9% 2.30
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains a bit defensive; we have removed the "Add to Longs" suggestion as we sort through the market's recent sell-off.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

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