TrendFlex Score

Market risk assessment tools and tactical investment opportunities driven by curated financial insight

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains Long, despite a scare on the Classic CR chart earlier thsi week. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +8.3 +8.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +14.7% +14.7%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score declined to 1.38 from 1.39 and closed slightly below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  

 TFS02102017

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 8.3% 8.3% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 10.3% 10.3% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, the LQD indicator remains at an extreme, with the continued potential of a double bottom flashing a warning sign to long equity positions.  

 

 LQD02102017

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains Long, as the major indices continue to flirt with new highs.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +7.34 +7.4%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +13.8% +13.8%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.39 to 1.40 and is slightly above its three-week moving average.  

 TFS02032017

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 7.4% 7.4% 1.20
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 9.4% 9.4% 1.25
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, the VIX and Put/call ratios pushed back to mildly extreme readings.  

 VIX02032017

 Although the LQD indicator has narrowed the gap vs. its moving average, it appears to be working on a double-bottom, which could suggest risk to equities in the near future.

LQD02032016

 

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains Long, as the major indices continue to flirt with new highs.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +7.3% +7.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +13.6% +13.6%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.35 to 1.39 and is even with its three-week moving average.  

 TFS01272017

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 7.3% 7.3% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 9.3% 9.3% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week all three indicators are at extremes.  

LQD01272016 

 

ted0127

 

VIX01272017

 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains Long, as the major indices continue to flirt with new highs.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +6.2% +6.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +12.5% +12.5%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.41 to 1.35 and closed below its three-week moving average (a bullish development).  

 TFS01212017

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 6.3% 6.3% 1.125
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 8.3% 8.3% 1.200
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week none of the three indicators are at extremes.  

 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains Long, as the major indices continue to flirt with new highs.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +6.3% +6.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +12.6% +12.6%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.37 to 1.41 and is slightly above its three-week moving average (barely bearish).  

TFS01132017

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 6.3% 6.3% 1.125
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 8.3% 8.3% 1.125
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.

The VIX indicator (below) remains at an extreme reading, partly offset by a neutral reading on Put/Call.  The other two Extremes indicators are neutral.  

VIX01132017

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains Long, as the major indices continue to flirt with new highs.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +6.4% +6.4%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +12.8% +12.8%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.28 (12/30/16) to 1.37 and remains about even with its three-week moving average.  It continues to rest at a level that in the past has preceded setbacks in equities.

TFS01062017

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 6.4% 6.4% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 8.4% 8.4% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.

The large gap in the LQD/SPX ratio vs. its moving average that was previously printed in late December has narrowed to a non-extreme reading. The TED Spread is also neutral. The VIX indicator (below) has shifted to an extreme reading.  

VIX01062017

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish. Hedges to long positions are in order given the extreme market readings and the low TrendFlex Score.  We would refrain from adding longs, waiting for a breather in the markets.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

No Updates planned for 12/30 market close.

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains Long, as the major indices continue to flirt with new highs.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +5.8% +5.8%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +12.1% +12.1%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.30 to 1.28 and remains below its three-week moving average.  It is resting at a level that in the past has preceded setbacks in equities.

TFS12232016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 5.8% 5.8% 1.20
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 7.8% 7.8% 1.25
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.

LQD Gap 12232016

A large gap in the LQD/SPX ratio vs. its moving average gets larger, suggesting that the recent rally may need a breather. The VIX indicator (below) has shifted to an extreme reading. 

VIX12232016

The TED Spread indicator has moved toward an extreme reading.

TED12232016

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish. Hedges to long positions are in order given the extreme market readings and the low TrendFlex Score.  We would refrain from adding longs, waiting for a breather in the markets.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains Long, as the major indices continue to flirt with new highs.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +5.5% +5.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +11.8% +11.8%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.33 to 1.30 and remains below its three-week moving average.  It is resting at a level that in the past has preceded setbacks in equities.

TFS12162016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.  Both remain at a "perfect" 1.0 score.   

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 5.5% 5.5% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 7.5% 7.5% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.

LQD Gap 121616

A large gap in the LQD/SPX ratio vs. its moving average gets larger, suggesting that the recent rally may need a breather. The VIX Put/Call indicator (below) has settled to a neutral reading. 

VIX12162016

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish. Hedges to long positions are in order given the extreme market readings and the low TrendFlex Score.  We would refrain from adding longs, waiting for a breather in the markets.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains Long, as the major indices hit new highs.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +5.6% +5.6%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +11.9% +11.9%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.53 to 1.33 and remains below its three-week moving average.  It is resting at a level that in the past has preceded setbacks in equities.

TFS12092016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.  Both have improved and once again achieved a "perfect" 1.0 score.   

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 5.6% 5.6% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 7.6% 7.6% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.

LQD Gap 120916

A large gap in the LQD/SPX ratio vs. its moving average gets larger, suggesting that the recent rally may need a breather. The VIX Put/Call indicator (below) has also moved to an extreme, pointing to an increased likelihood of a setback in equities.

VIX12092016

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish. Hedges to long positions are in order given the extreme market readings and the low TrendFlex Score.  We would refrain from adding longs, waiting for a breather in the markets.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains  Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +2.4% +2.4%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +8.6% +8.6%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.48 to 1.53, and remains bullishly below its three-week moving average.  

TFS12022016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.  Both have weakened slightly from their "perfect" 1.0 scores from last week.   

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 2.4% 2.4% 1.30
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 4.4% 4.4% 1.25
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.

LQDGap1202016

A large gap in the LQD/SPX ratio vs. its moving average suggests that the recent rally may need a breather.  Thegap was a max before this week's modest setback. The VIX Put/Call Extreme has shifted from extreme (pointing to the resulting setback in equities) to neutral, following this week's consolidation of recent gains.

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, especially with regards to recent market strength and positive seasonality.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

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