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TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)
TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains Long, despite a scare on the Classic CR chart earlier thsi week.
S&P 500 Return
|S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt).|
|TrendFlex Classic CR||Long||11/08/16||+11.4%||+11.4%|
|TrendFlex Allegiance CR||Long||4/13/16||+18.0%||+18.0%|
The TrendFlex Score declined from 1.32 to 1.22 and remains below its three-week moving average. Reviewing past levels in the 1.30 area of the TrendFlex Score, the S&P 500 has corrected about 5%. We continue to interpret this level of the TrendFlex Score as a bullish extreme, especially with the .10 drop from last week.
TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)
The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.
S&P 500 Return
S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term). Score: Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0
|TrendFlex Classic TF||Uptrend||11/8/16||11.4%||11.4%||1.00|
|TrendFlex Allegiance TF||Uptrend||5/31/16||13.5%||13.5%||1.00|
Baseline Analytics Extremes
Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings. The key indicators include the following:
- CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
- TED Spread
- LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading
When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. This week, the LQD indicator remains at an extreme, expanding the gap below its moving average.
TED is also looking close to an extreme (chart below). VIX is neutral while Put/Call is barely at an extreme level (chart not presented).
The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.
|Set Stops on Longs|
|Short Overbought Equities|
|Add to Longs|
|Hedge or Reduce Shorts|
|Long Futures and Options|
*Red highlighted items are recommended strategies