TrendFlex Score

Market risk assessment tools and tactical investment opportunities driven by curated financial insight

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/24/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

3/28/17 Update:

The TrendFlex Classic CR signal shifted to a BUY at today's close.

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR signal remains at a Sell.  The longer-term Allegiance signal remains Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 3/09/17 +0.9% -0.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +16.1% +16.1%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score remained unchanged at 1.55, sitting above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.  

TFS03242017 

TrendFlex rlowing Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     The Classic signal is nearing a neutral score.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 +9.6% +9.6% 1.70
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +11.6% +11.6% 1.25
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, the LQD indicator moved from an extreme to a bearish position above its moving average (see bottom portion of chart below).

LQD03242017  

VIX and Put/Call bolted sharply above their respective moving averages, a sign that the short term weakness in equities may reverse.  However, they are not at extreme readings which would presage a strong rally.

VIX03252017

 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.  A short position in an S&P 500 e-mini future contract, for example, is one strategy to help hedge long positions.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Mr. Palmerton is the Founder of Baseline Analytics, and has 30 years of experience spanning corporate finance, asset management and financial markets research. He has held positions as CFO, Director of Finance, and Financial Management and Analysis roles for Fortune 500 and multi-national firms (ADP, Honeywell, Linde Group) as well as for early-stage and emerging growth ventures).

Bob founded Baseline Analytics in 2005. With the objective to utilize technical analysis of the financial markets, coupled with macro-economic trends, Baseline Analytics strives to keep investors on the right side of the market at all times. Bob developed the TrendFlex indicator, comprised of a blend of financial indicators that assess the risk of a change in market trend. Baseline Analytics’ TrendFlex models are utilized as the basis for asset allocation strategies of The Absolute Return Market Trend Portfolio. Mr. Palmerton’s articles and blogs can be found on Seeking Alpha, Finding Technicals and Baseline Analytics.

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