TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/24/2017

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TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains Long, despite a scare on the Classic CR chart earlier thsi week. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +10.6 +10.6%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +17.2% +17.2%
Historic Performance        


TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.29 to 1.32 and remains below its three-week moving average.  Reviewing past levels in the 1.30 area of the TrendFlex Score, the S&P 500 has corrected about 5%.  We continue to interpret this level of the TrendFlex Score as a bullish extreme.


TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return


S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 10.6% 10.6% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 12.7% 12.7% 1.00
Historic Performance          


Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, the LQD indicator remains at an extreme, expanding the gap below its moving average.


 TED is also looking close to an extreme (chart below).  VIX is neutral while Put/Call is barely at an extreme level (chart not presented).


 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies


Checking in on the Trend Extremes - 2/26/17
Index & Sector ETF Signals - 2/24/2017 Update

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