TrendFlex Score

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/17/2017

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TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains Long, despite a scare on the Classic CR chart earlier thsi week. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +9.9 +9.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +16.4% +16.4%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score declined from 1.38 to 1.29 remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  Reviewing past levels in the 1.30 area of the TrendFlex Score, the S&P 500 has corrected about 5%.  We would interpret this level of the TrendFlex Score as a bullish extreme.

TFS02172017

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 9.9% 9.9% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 12.0% 12.0% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, the LQD indicator remains at an extreme, expanding the gap below its moving average.

LQD02172017  

 

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 2/24/2017 Update
TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/10/2017

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