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TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)
There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.
S&P 500 Return
|S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt).|
|TrendFlex Classic CR||Long||3/28/17||+1.1%||+1.1%|
|TrendFlex Allegiance CR||Long||4/13/16||+18.0%||+18.0%|
The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.55 to 1.57 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.
TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)
The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend. Classic is moving to cash at the market open on 5/22. Allegiance remains bullish.
S&P 500 Return
S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term). Score: Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0
|TrendFlex Classic TF||Uptrend; Cash 5/22||11/8/16||+11.3%||+11.3%||1.900|
|TrendFlex Allegiance TF||Uptrend||5/31/16||+13.4%||+13.4%||1.375|
Baseline Analytics Extremes
Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings. The key indicators include the following:
- CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
- TED Spread
- LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading
When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX reading achieved an extreme reading earlier this week, but has since turned neutral. There are no extremes this week. Importantly, VIX and the Put/Call ratio do not show a bullish extreme (which would trigger aggressive hedging of long positions).
The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.
|Set Stops on Longs|
|Short Overbought Equities|
|Add to Longs|
|Hedge or Reduce Shorts|
|Long Futures and Options|
*Red highlighted items are recommended strategies