TrendFlex Score

Market risk assessment tools and tactical investment opportunities driven by curated financial insight

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 -0.3% -0.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +16.3% +16.3%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.61 to 1.57 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.

TFS04212017 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.   Modest improvements in the scores this week suggest a potential breakout from the recent trading range. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 +9.8% +9.8% 1.900
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +11.8% +11.8% 1.125
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  There are no extremes this week, as all indicators are at neutral readings. 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.  A short position in an S&P 500 e-mini future contract, for example, is one strategy to help hedge long positions.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

there was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 -1.2% -1.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +15.3% +15.3%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased to 1.61 and remains slightly above its three-week moving average.  

TFS04142017 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     The Classic signal remains near a neutral score.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 +8.9% +8.9% 2.10
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +10.9% +10.9% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, the VIX reading hit an extreme (suggesting a potential bounce in equities).  The LQD chart shows a bearish shift above its moving average.

VIX04142017 

LQD04142017

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.  A short position in an S&P 500 e-mini future contract, for example, is one strategy to help hedge long positions.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

there was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.  TrendFlex Classic CR was rather volatile but ended bullish for the week.   

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 +0.0% -0.0%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +16.7% +16.7%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score remained unchanged at 1.58 and remains slightly above its three-week moving average.  

TFS04072017 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     The Classic signal remains near a neutral score.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 +10.1% +10.1% 1.70
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +12.2% +12.2% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, there are no extreme readings in the Extremes technical indicators charts. 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.  A short position in an S&P 500 e-mini future contract, for example, is one strategy to help hedge long positions.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR signal shifted to Buy at the 3/28 market close (opening trade price at 3/29 market open). The short trade gained 0.4%. The longer-term Allegiance signal remains Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 +0.3% -0.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +17.0% +17.0%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased to 1.58 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.  

TFS03312017 

TrendFlex rlowing Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     The Classic signal remains near a neutral score.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 +10.4% +10.4% 1.70
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +12.5% +12.5% 1.25
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, there are no extreme readings in the Extremes technical indicators charts. 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.  A short position in an S&P 500 e-mini future contract, for example, is one strategy to help hedge long positions.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

3/28/17 Update:

The TrendFlex Classic CR signal shifted to a BUY at today's close.

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR signal remains at a Sell.  The longer-term Allegiance signal remains Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 3/09/17 +0.9% -0.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +16.1% +16.1%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score remained unchanged at 1.55, sitting above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.  

TFS03242017 

TrendFlex rlowing Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     The Classic signal is nearing a neutral score.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 +9.6% +9.6% 1.70
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +11.6% +11.6% 1.25
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, the LQD indicator moved from an extreme to a bearish position above its moving average (see bottom portion of chart below).

LQD03242017  

VIX and Put/Call bolted sharply above their respective moving averages, a sign that the short term weakness in equities may reverse.  However, they are not at extreme readings which would presage a strong rally.

VIX03252017

 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.  A short position in an S&P 500 e-mini future contract, for example, is one strategy to help hedge long positions.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR signal remains at a Sell.  The longer-term Allegiance signal remains Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 3/09/17 -0.6% +0.6%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +17.8% +17.8%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score climbed from 1.44 to 1.55 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.  

TFS03172017 

TrendFlex rlowing Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 11.2% 11.2% 1.10
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 13.2 13.2% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, the LQD indicator continues to remain at an extreme, expanding the gap below its moving average.

LQD03102017  

TED closed in on an extreme (chart below), which could suggest a rebound soon.  As we hone in on the timing of its signals, the TED red zones can persist during a short-term downtrend.  We would look for a shift back up through the "0" line on the oscillator indicator (bottom of chart) to suggest that a pullback in the S&P500 has ended. VIX and Put/Call are neutral (chart not presented).

ted03102017

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.  A short position in an S&P 500 e-mini future contract, for example, is one strategy to help hedge long positions.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR signal shifted to a Sell at the market close of /9/16.  The Allegiance signal remains Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 3/09/17 -0.3% +0.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +17.5% +17.5%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score surged from 1.22 to 1.44 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. This coincides with the shift in the TrendFlex Classic CR score to a Sell signal. 

TFS03102017

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 10.9% 10.9% 1.10
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 13.0% 13.0% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, the LQD indicator continues to remain at an extreme, expanding the gap below its moving average.

LQD03102017  

TED closed in on an extreme (chart below), which could suggest a rebound soon.  As we hone in on the timing of its signals, the TED red zones can persist during a short-term downtrend.  We would look for a shift back up through the "0" line on the oscillator indicator (bottom of chart) to suggest that a pullback in the S&P500 has ended. VIX and Put/Call are neutral (chart not presented).

ted03102017

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.  A short position in an S&P 500 e-mini future contract, for example, is one strategy to help hedge long positions.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains Long, despite a scare on the Classic CR chart earlier thsi week. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +11.4% +11.4%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +18.0% +18.0%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score declined from 1.32 to 1.22 and remains below its three-week moving average.  Reviewing past levels in the 1.30 area of the TrendFlex Score, the S&P 500 has corrected about 5%.  We continue to interpret this level of the TrendFlex Score as a bullish extreme, especially with the .10 drop from last week.

TFS03032017

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 11.4% 11.4% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 13.5% 13.5% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, the LQD indicator remains at an extreme, expanding the gap below its moving average.

LQD03032017  

 TED is also looking close to an extreme (chart below).  VIX is neutral while Put/Call is barely at an extreme level (chart not presented).

ted03032017

 

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains Long, despite a scare on the Classic CR chart earlier thsi week. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +10.6 +10.6%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +17.2% +17.2%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.29 to 1.32 and remains below its three-week moving average.  Reviewing past levels in the 1.30 area of the TrendFlex Score, the S&P 500 has corrected about 5%.  We continue to interpret this level of the TrendFlex Score as a bullish extreme.

TFS02242017

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 10.6% 10.6% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 12.7% 12.7% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, the LQD indicator remains at an extreme, expanding the gap below its moving average.

LQD02242017  

 TED is also looking close to an extreme (chart below).  VIX is neutral while Put/Call is barely at an extreme level (chart not presented).

ted02242017

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains Long, despite a scare on the Classic CR chart earlier thsi week. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +9.9 +9.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +16.4% +16.4%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score declined from 1.38 to 1.29 remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  Reviewing past levels in the 1.30 area of the TrendFlex Score, the S&P 500 has corrected about 5%.  We would interpret this level of the TrendFlex Score as a bullish extreme.

TFS02172017

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 9.9% 9.9% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 12.0% 12.0% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, the LQD indicator remains at an extreme, expanding the gap below its moving average.

LQD02172017  

 

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

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