Index & ETF Signals

Market risk assessment tools and tactical investment opportunities driven by curated financial insight

Top 5 short-term timing systems results for major ETF's, based on a series of 40 back-tested systems, and a 3-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.  Systems can generate a plethora of trading signals (some trade once or twice in a year, others can trade several times per month).

The chart below should be used as a general view of market trend, in conjunction with an overall assessment of the markets.  The value in the signals is in assessing the shift week-to-week, as well as the overall signal weight (i.e. 4 long and 1 short = "long").  Often a frequently-trading system will flash a signal that is contrary to the majority of the signals for a particular ETF.  This represents a short-term swing trade signal and tends to follow periods of high market volatility.

Last updated following 8/28/2015 market close.

 

SignalSelect08282015

Top 5 short-term timing systems results for major ETF's, based on a series of 40 back-tested systems, and a 3-month time horizon. 

Last updated following 8/21/2015 market close.

 

SignalSelect08212015

Top 5 short-term timing systems results for major ETF's, based on a series of 40 back-tested systems, and a 3-month time horizon. 

Last updated following 8/19/2015 market close.

 

SignalSelect08192015

Top 5 short-term timing systems results for major ETF's, based on a series of 40 back-tested systems, and a 3-month time horizon. 

Last updated following 8/10/2015 market close.

ETF Long Short Top System

Top System Entry Date

SPY 2 3 Short  7/22/15 
QQQ 4 1 Long 7/30/15
IWM 2 3 Short 8/5/15
VGK 2 3 Long 7/29/15 
EEM 3 2 Long  7/27/15
GLD 4 1 Long  7/23/15 
TLT  0 Short  7/17/15
UUP 4 Short  8/10/15 

 

 

Major indices remain on Uptrend to Neutral.   

 

ETF Today Week Ending 7/31/15 Comments
SPY Neutral Uptrend Setback but sustains long-term uptrend; short-term neutral
DIA Neutral Uptrend

Dow continues trading range

QQQ Uptrend Uptrend Settles back from new highs
IWM Neutral Neutral Small Caps weaken
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  Uptrend continues 
EEM Downtrend Downtrend Emerging markets struggle to find support
GDX Neutral Neutral GDX turns neutral; bottoming action remains interesting
TLT Neutral Neutral TLT strengthens from support

Major indices remain on Uptrend. GDX appears to be forming a new bottom. EEM (Emerging Markets) continue to struggle.  

 

ETF Today Week Ending 7/24/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Uptrend Bounce on modest volume
DIA Uptrend Neutral

Dow retakes its 200-day moving average

QQQ Uptrend Uptrend Settles back from new highs
IWM Neutral Neutral Small Caps weaken
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  Uptrend continues depite recent pullback
EEM Downtrend Neutral Emerging markets struggle to find support
GDX Neutral Downtrend GDX turns neutral; bottoming action looks interesting
TLT Neutral Neutral TLT bounces from support

What a difference a week makes!  Major indices shifted from Neutral to Uptrend on the week, including VGK.  EEM continues to struggle; GDX broke down on the week.  TLT continues to find support in the 115-116 area. 

 

ETF Today Week Ending 7/10/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Neutral Uptrend resumed
DIA Uptrend Neutral

Uptrend resumed; a bit tentative on Friday

QQQ Uptrend Neutral Impressive breakout to new highs
IWM Uptrend Uptrend Small Caps continue to outperform
VGK Uptrend Neutral  Uptrend resumed
EEM Neutral Neutral Emerging markets remain neutral 
GDX Downtrend Neutral GDX breaks support
TLT Downtrend Downtrend TLT remains at support

 Major indices shifted to neutral on the week, with the exception of IWM, as small caps continue to outperform. EEM and GDX continue to struggle. TLT continues to seek support near the 115 area. 

 

ETF Today Week Ending 6/26/15 Comments
SPY Neutral Uptrend Some technical damage; TrendFlex Classic weakness 
DIA Neutral Uptrend

Dow struggles; feeble bounces and technical weakness

QQQ Neutral Uptrend Likewise technical damage with little sign of buying the dip
IWM Uptrend Uptrend Small Caps outperform; some technical damage but relative outperformance continues
VGK Nuetral Uptrend  European stocks weaken
EEM Neutral Neutral Emerging markets remain neutral 
GDX Neutral Neutral GDX continues neutral as it works on a base
TLT Downtrend Downtrend TLT continues to attempt to form a short-term bottom at 115

EEM and GDX continue to struggle. TLT continues to seek support near the 115 area. Uptrends remain in major stock indices. QQQ and the NASDAQ took a hit on Friday.

 

ETF Today Week Ending 6/26/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Uptrend Mild retracement from new high
DIA Uptrend Uptrend Mild retracement from new high
QQQ Uptrend Uptrend QQQ consolidates recent gains; decline on higher volume on Friday 6/26. Top 4 short-term timing systems went short 6/22-2/26,
IWM Uptrend Uptrend IWM uptrend continues; small caps outperforming
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  European stocks continue to hold up
EEM Neutral Neutral Emerging markets remain neutral 
GDX Neutral Neutral GDX continues neutral as it works on a base
TLT Downtrend Downtrend TLT continues to attempt to form a short-term bottom at 115

      EEM and GDX continue to struggle. TLT remains in a downtrend however continues to work on forming a bottom at 117-118 support levels. Uptrends remain in major stock indices.

 

ETF Today Week Ending 6/12/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Uptrend Mild retracement from new high
DIA Uptrend Uptrend Mild retracement from new high
QQQ Uptrend Uptrend QQQ consolidates recent gains
IWM Uptrend Uptrend IWM uptrend continues; small caps outperforming
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  European stocks firm
EEM Neutral Uptrend Emerging markets remain neutral 
GDX Neutral Neutral GDX continues neutral as it works on a base
TLT Downtrend Downtrend TLT may be forming a short-term bottom