Index & ETF Signals

Market risk assessment tools and tactical investment opportunities driven by curated financial insight

Index & ETF Signals - 09/11/2015 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major ETF's below are presented along with the Top 5 timing systems that beat "buy and hold," based on a series of 40 back-tested systems and a 6-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.

Baseline Analytics provides both the TrendFlex and MetaStock signals to look for alignment in the trend's characterization.  Also useful is to observe the weekly changes in the signals, which can provide an early indication of a trend shift.

ETF TrendFlex Signal Top 5 MetaStock Signals Comments
SPY  Short  4 Short/1 Long 

1 long added on the week 

DIA Short 3 Short/2 Long

1 long added on the week 

QQQ Short 3 Short/2 Long  Technical damage not as severe as DIA and SPY 
IWM  Short  3 Short/2 Long  2 longs added on the week 
VGK Short 3 Long/2 Short  1 long added on the week; Interesting triple bottom formation near current price 
EEM Short 41Short/1 Long 1 long added on the week 
GLD Short 3 Short/2 Long  2 longs added on the week
TLT Long 2 Long/3 Short TLT is oversold at major support; no signal changes this week
UUP  Long  3 Long/2 Short  1 long added on the week 

 

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Copy of Index & ETF Signals - 09/11/2015 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major ETF's below are presented along with the Top 5 timing systems that beat "buy and hold," based on a series of 40 back-tested systems and a 6-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.

Baseline Analytics provides both the TrendFlex and MetaStock signals to look for alignment in the trend's characterization.  Also useful is to observe the weekly changes in the signals, which can provide an early indication of a trend shift.

ETF TrendFlex Signal Top 5 MetaStock Signals Comments
SPY  Short  4 Short/1 Long 

No change on the week 

DIA Short 3 Short/2 Long

No change on the week 

QQQ Short 2 Short/3 Long  1 long added on the week
IWM  Short  3 Short/2 Long  No change on the week 
VGK Short 3 Long/2 Short  No change on the week 
EEM Short 4 Short/1 Long No change on the week 
GLD Short 2 Short/3 Long  No change on the week
TLT Long 3 Long/2 Short 1 long added on the week
UUP  Long  4 Long/1 Short  1 long added on the week 

 

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Index & ETF Signals - 09/04/2015 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major ETF's below are presented along with the Top 5 timing systems that beat "buy and hold," based on a series of 40 back-tested systems and a 6-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.

Baseline Analytics provides both the TrendFlex and MetaStock signals to look for alignment in the trend's characterization.  Also useful is to observe the weekly changes in the signals, which can provide an early indication of a trend shift.

ETF TrendFlex Signal Top 5 MetaStock Signals Comments
SPY  Short  5 Short/0 Long 

DIA Short 4 Short/1 Long

QQQ Short 3 Short/2 Long  Technical damage not as severe as DIA and SPY 
IWM  Short  5 Short/0 Long 
VGK Short 2 Long/3 Short  Interesting triple bottom formation near current price 
EEM Short 5 Short/0 Long Downtrend continues 
GLD Short 5 Short/0 Long  GLD continues to struggle to form a bottom 
TLT Long 2 Long/3 Short TLT is oversold at major support; CCI buy signal Friday
UUP  Long  2 Long/3 Short  Short-term technical buy signals for UUP 

 

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Index & ETF Signals - 08/28/2015 Update

Top 5 short-term timing systems results for major ETF's, based on a series of 40 back-tested systems, and a 3-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.  Systems can generate a plethora of trading signals (some trade once or twice in a year, others can trade several times per month).

The chart below should be used as a general view of market trend, in conjunction with an overall assessment of the markets.  The value in the signals is in assessing the shift week-to-week, as well as the overall signal weight (i.e. 4 long and 1 short = "long").  Often a frequently-trading system will flash a signal that is contrary to the majority of the signals for a particular ETF.  This represents a short-term swing trade signal and tends to follow periods of high market volatility.

Last updated following 8/28/2015 market close.

 

SignalSelect08282015

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Index & ETF Signals - 08/21/2015 Update

Top 5 short-term timing systems results for major ETF's, based on a series of 40 back-tested systems, and a 3-month time horizon. 

Last updated following 8/21/2015 market close.

 

SignalSelect08212015

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Index & ETF Signals - 08/19/2015 Update

Top 5 short-term timing systems results for major ETF's, based on a series of 40 back-tested systems, and a 3-month time horizon. 

Last updated following 8/19/2015 market close.

 

SignalSelect08192015

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Index & ETF Signals - 08/10/2015 Update

Top 5 short-term timing systems results for major ETF's, based on a series of 40 back-tested systems, and a 3-month time horizon. 

Last updated following 8/10/2015 market close.

ETF Long Short Top System

Top System Entry Date

SPY 2 3 Short  7/22/15 
QQQ 4 1 Long 7/30/15
IWM 2 3 Short 8/5/15
VGK 2 3 Long 7/29/15 
EEM 3 2 Long  7/27/15
GLD 4 1 Long  7/23/15 
TLT  0 Short  7/17/15
UUP 4 Short  8/10/15 

 

 

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Index & ETF Signals - 08/7/2015 Update

Major indices remain on Uptrend to Neutral.   

 

ETF Today Week Ending 7/31/15 Comments
SPY Neutral Uptrend Setback but sustains long-term uptrend; short-term neutral
DIA Neutral Uptrend

Dow continues trading range

QQQ Uptrend Uptrend Settles back from new highs
IWM Neutral Neutral Small Caps weaken
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  Uptrend continues 
EEM Downtrend Downtrend Emerging markets struggle to find support
GDX Neutral Neutral GDX turns neutral; bottoming action remains interesting
TLT Neutral Neutral TLT strengthens from support
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Index & ETF Signals - 07/31/2015 Update

Major indices remain on Uptrend. GDX appears to be forming a new bottom. EEM (Emerging Markets) continue to struggle.  

 

ETF Today Week Ending 7/24/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Uptrend Bounce on modest volume
DIA Uptrend Neutral

Dow retakes its 200-day moving average

QQQ Uptrend Uptrend Settles back from new highs
IWM Neutral Neutral Small Caps weaken
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  Uptrend continues depite recent pullback
EEM Downtrend Neutral Emerging markets struggle to find support
GDX Neutral Downtrend GDX turns neutral; bottoming action looks interesting
TLT Neutral Neutral TLT bounces from support
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Index & ETF Signals - 07/10/2015 Update

What a difference a week makes!  Major indices shifted from Neutral to Uptrend on the week, including VGK.  EEM continues to struggle; GDX broke down on the week.  TLT continues to find support in the 115-116 area. 

 

ETF Today Week Ending 7/10/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Neutral Uptrend resumed
DIA Uptrend Neutral

Uptrend resumed; a bit tentative on Friday

QQQ Uptrend Neutral Impressive breakout to new highs
IWM Uptrend Uptrend Small Caps continue to outperform
VGK Uptrend Neutral  Uptrend resumed
EEM Neutral Neutral Emerging markets remain neutral 
GDX Downtrend Neutral GDX breaks support
TLT Downtrend Downtrend TLT remains at support
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Index & ETF Signals - 07/2/2015 Update

 Major indices shifted to neutral on the week, with the exception of IWM, as small caps continue to outperform. EEM and GDX continue to struggle. TLT continues to seek support near the 115 area. 

 

ETF Today Week Ending 6/26/15 Comments
SPY Neutral Uptrend Some technical damage; TrendFlex Classic weakness 
DIA Neutral Uptrend

Dow struggles; feeble bounces and technical weakness

QQQ Neutral Uptrend Likewise technical damage with little sign of buying the dip
IWM Uptrend Uptrend Small Caps outperform; some technical damage but relative outperformance continues
VGK Nuetral Uptrend  European stocks weaken
EEM Neutral Neutral Emerging markets remain neutral 
GDX Neutral Neutral GDX continues neutral as it works on a base
TLT Downtrend Downtrend TLT continues to attempt to form a short-term bottom at 115
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Index & ETF Signals - 06/26/2015 Update

EEM and GDX continue to struggle. TLT continues to seek support near the 115 area. Uptrends remain in major stock indices. QQQ and the NASDAQ took a hit on Friday.

 

ETF Today Week Ending 6/26/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Uptrend Mild retracement from new high
DIA Uptrend Uptrend Mild retracement from new high
QQQ Uptrend Uptrend QQQ consolidates recent gains; decline on higher volume on Friday 6/26. Top 4 short-term timing systems went short 6/22-2/26,
IWM Uptrend Uptrend IWM uptrend continues; small caps outperforming
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  European stocks continue to hold up
EEM Neutral Neutral Emerging markets remain neutral 
GDX Neutral Neutral GDX continues neutral as it works on a base
TLT Downtrend Downtrend TLT continues to attempt to form a short-term bottom at 115
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Index & ETF Signals - 06/19/2015 Update

      EEM and GDX continue to struggle. TLT remains in a downtrend however continues to work on forming a bottom at 117-118 support levels. Uptrends remain in major stock indices.

 

ETF Today Week Ending 6/12/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Uptrend Mild retracement from new high
DIA Uptrend Uptrend Mild retracement from new high
QQQ Uptrend Uptrend QQQ consolidates recent gains
IWM Uptrend Uptrend IWM uptrend continues; small caps outperforming
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  European stocks firm
EEM Neutral Uptrend Emerging markets remain neutral 
GDX Neutral Neutral GDX continues neutral as it works on a base
TLT Downtrend Downtrend TLT may be forming a short-term bottom
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Index & ETF Signals - 06/12/2015 Update

      EEM, GDX and TLT continue to struggle. Uptrends remain in major stock indices despite recent weakness.

 

ETF Today Week Ending 5/29/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Uptrend Mild retracement from new high
DIA Uptrend Uptrend Mild retracement from new high
QQQ Uptrend Uptrend QQQ consolidates recent gains
IWM Uptrend Uptrend IWM uptrend continues; small caps outperforming
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  European stocks firm
EEM Neutral Uptrend Emerging markets remain neutral 
GDX Neutral Neutral GDX continues neutral as it works on a base
TLT Downtrend Downtrend TLT may be forming a short-term bottom
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Index & ETF Signals - 06/05/2015 Update

      EEM, GDX and TLT continue to struggle. Uptrends remain in major stock indices despite recent weakness.

 

ETF Today Week Ending 5/29/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Uptrend Mild retracement from new high
DIA Uptrend Uptrend Mild retracement from new high
QQQ Uptrend Uptrend QQQ pushes toward new high
IWM Uptrend Uptrend IWM uptrend continues
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  European stocks consolidate recent gains
EEM Neutral Uptrend Emerging markets remain neutral 
GDX Neutral Neutral GDX turns neutral as it works on a base
TLT Downtrend Downtrend Mild retracement of downtrend offset with a new decline
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Index & ETF Signals - 05/29/2015 Update

EEM oulls back 3.8% this week, turning neutral.      

ETF Today Week Ending 5/22/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Uptrend Mild pullback from new high
DIA Uptrend Uptrend Mild pullback from new high
QQQ Uptrend Uptrend QQQ pushes toward new high
IWM Uptrend Uptrend IWM uptrend continues
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  European stocks consolidate recent gains
EEM Neutral Uptrend Emerging markets turn neutral 
GDX Neutral Neutral GDX working on a resumption of uptrend
TLT Downtrend Downtrend Mild retracement of downtrend with weak bounce
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Index & ETF Signals - 05/22/2015 Update

No changes to the ETF signals this week.  TLT (and LQD, not listed here), look poised to bounce.     

ETF Today Week Ending 5/15/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Uptrend Near new high
DIA Uptrend Uptrend Near new High
QQQ Uptrend Uptrend QQQ pushes toward new high
IWM Uptrend Uptrend IWM uptrend continues
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  European stocks continue their uptrend
EEM Uptrend Uptrend Emerging markets show a convincing breakout; resistance at 45
GDX Neutral Neutral GDX working on a resumption of uptrend
TLT Downtrend Downtrend Weak bounce does not make for a new uptrend; opportunists may trade a bounce at this stage, as TLT is oversold.
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Index & ETF Signals - 05/15/2015 Update

IWM (iShares Russell 2000) shifted to an uptrend thsi week. GDX appears on the verge of an uptrend. TLT bounced on Friday but remains in a downtrend.    

ETF Today Week Ending 5/08/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Uptrend New high
DIA Uptrend Uptrend New High
QQQ Uptrend Uptrend QQQ pushes toward new high
IWM Uptrend Downtrend IWM bounces off support and establishes a new uptrend 
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  European stocks continue their uptrend
EEM Uptrend Uptrend Emerging markets show a convincing breakout; resistance at 45
GDX Neutral Downtrend GDX working on a resumption of uptrend
TLT Downtrend Downtrend Weak bounce does not make for a new uptrend
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Index & ETF Signals - 05/08/2015 Update

IWM (iShares Russell 2000) managed to bounce from its recent selloff, albeit on lighter volume. took a notable hit this week as price action closed below trendline support on higher volume. GDX continues its fits and starts, unable to establish an uptrend.  TLT bounced on Friday but has entered a downtrend.    

ETF Today Week Ending 5/01/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Uptrend SPY retraces recent gains
DIA Uptrend Uptrend DIA resumes its trading range
QQQ Uptrend Uptrend QQQ retraces recent gains
IWM Downtrend Uptrend IWM sharply reverses, breaking trendline support 
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  European stocks continue their new uptrend
EEM Uptrend Uptrend Emerging markets show a convincing breakout; resistance at 45.
GDX Downtrend Downtrend Still working at bottoming action; tough resistance at 20.
TLT Downtrend Neutral TLT gaps lower; closed below 50-day moving average on 4/22.
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Index & ETF Signals - 05/01/2015 Update

IWM (iShares Russell 2000) took a notable hit this week as price action closed below trendline support on higher volume.  This has caused our overall market sentiment to shift to short-term bearishness (as seen by the change in the TrendFlex Classic signal). GDX continues its fits and starts, unable to establish an uptrend.  TLT gapped down and remains in a trading range.    

ETF Today Week Ending 4/24/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Uptrend SPY retraces recent gains
DIA Uptrend Uptrend DIA resumes its trading range
QQQ Uptrend Uptrend QQQ retraces recent gains
IWM Downtrend Uptrend IWM sharply reverses, breaking trendline support 
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  European stocks continue their new uptrend
EEM Uptrend Uptrend Emerging markets show a convincing breakout; resistance at 45.
GDX Downtrend Downtrend Still working at bottoming action; tough resistance at 20.
TLT Neutral Neutral TLT gaps lower; closed below 50-day moving average on 4/22.
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