Index & ETF Signals

Market risk assessment tools and tactical investment opportunities driven by curated financial insight

Index & ETF Signals - 12/04/2015 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major ETF's below are presented along with the Top 5 timing systems that beat "buy and hold," based on a series of 40 back-tested systems and a 6-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.

Baseline Analytics provides both the TrendFlex and MetaStock signals to look for alignment in the trend's characterization.  Also useful is to observe the weekly changes in the signals, which can provide an early indication of a trend shift.

ETF TrendFlex Signal Top 5 MetaStock Signals Comments
SPY  Long  1 Short/4 Long 

DIA Long 1 Short/4 Long

QQQ Long 0 Short/5 Long 
IWM  Long 2 Short/3 Long 
VGK Neutral 3 Long/2 Short   
EEM Neutral 4 Short/1 Long
GLD Short 4 Short/2 Long 
TLT Long 3 Long/2 Short  
UUP  Long 4 Long/1 Short 
595 Hits
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Index & ETF Signals - 11/27/2015 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major ETF's below are presented along with the Top 5 timing systems that beat "buy and hold," based on a series of 40 back-tested systems and a 6-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.

Baseline Analytics provides both the TrendFlex and MetaStock signals to look for alignment in the trend's characterization.  Also useful is to observe the weekly changes in the signals, which can provide an early indication of a trend shift.

ETF TrendFlex Signal Top 5 MetaStock Signals Comments
SPY  Long  1 Short/4 Long 

DIA Long 2 Short/3 Long

QQQ Long 0 Short/5 Long 
IWM  Long 2 Short/3 Long 
VGK Neutral 3 Long/2 Short   
EEM Neutral 4 Short/1 Long
GLD Short 4 Short/2 Long 
TLT Long 3 Long/2 Short  
UUP  Long 4 Long/1 Short 

 

561 Hits
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Index & ETF Signals - 11/20/2015 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major ETF's below are presented along with the Top 5 timing systems that beat "buy and hold," based on a series of 40 back-tested systems and a 6-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.

Baseline Analytics provides both the TrendFlex and MetaStock signals to look for alignment in the trend's characterization.  Also useful is to observe the weekly changes in the signals, which can provide an early indication of a trend shift.

ETF TrendFlex Signal Top 5 MetaStock Signals Comments
SPY  Long  1 Short/4 Long 

DIA Long 2 Short/3 Long

QQQ Long 0 Short/5 Long 
IWM  Neutral 2 Short/3 Long 
VGK Neutral 3 Long/2 Short   
EEM Neutral 4 Short/1 Long
GLD Short 4 Short/2 Long 
TLT Long 3 Long/2 Short  
UUP  Long 4 Long/1 Short 
635 Hits
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Index & ETF Signals - 11/13/2015 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major ETF's below are presented along with the Top 5 timing systems that beat "buy and hold," based on a series of 40 back-tested systems and a 6-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.

Baseline Analytics provides both the TrendFlex and MetaStock signals to look for alignment in the trend's characterization.  Also useful is to observe the weekly changes in the signals, which can provide an early indication of a trend shift.

ETF TrendFlex Signal Top 5 MetaStock Signals Comments
SPY  Long  3 Short/2 Long 

 Short-term setback Thu and Fri

DIA Long 2 Short/3 Long

 Short-term setback Thu and Fri

QQQ Long 1 Short/4 Long 
IWM  Neutral 3 Short/2 Long 
VGK Neutral 3 Long/2 Short   
EEM Neutral 4 Short/1 Long
GLD Short 4 Short/2 Long  Further weakness emerges 
TLT Long 3 Long/2 Short  
UUP  Long 4 Long/1 Short 
526 Hits
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Index & ETF Signals - 11/06/2015 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major ETF's below are presented along with the Top 5 timing systems that beat "buy and hold," based on a series of 40 back-tested systems and a 6-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.

Baseline Analytics provides both the TrendFlex and MetaStock signals to look for alignment in the trend's characterization.  Also useful is to observe the weekly changes in the signals, which can provide an early indication of a trend shift.

ETF TrendFlex Signal Top 5 MetaStock Signals Comments
SPY  Long  2 Short/3 Long 

DIA Long 2 Short/3 Long

QQ Long 1 Short/4 Long 
IWM  Long 2 Short/3 Long 
VGK Neutral 4 Long/1 Short   
EEM Neutral 4 Short/1 Long
GLD Short 3 Short/2 Long 
TLT Long 3 Long/2 Short  
UUP  Long 4 Long/1 Short 
512 Hits
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Index & ETF Signals - 10/23/2015 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major ETF's below are presented along with the Top 5 timing systems that beat "buy and hold," based on a series of 40 back-tested systems and a 6-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.

Baseline Analytics provides both the TrendFlex and MetaStock signals to look for alignment in the trend's characterization.  Also useful is to observe the weekly changes in the signals, which can provide an early indication of a trend shift.

ETF TrendFlex Signal Top 5 MetaStock Signals Comments
SPY  Long  0 Short/5 Long 

DIA Long 1 Short/4 Long

QQQ Long 0 Short/5 Long  Powerful outperformance on 10/23
IWM  Neutral  2 Short/3 Long  Remains 2eaker than the other sector indices 
VGK Neutral 4 Long/1 Short   
EEM Neutral 2 Short/3 Long Still struggling to form a firm uptrend 
GLD Long 1 Short/4 Long  Retraced from 114 resistance
TLT Long 3 Long/2 Short  
UUP  Long 4 Long/1 Short  Outperformance this week due to global credit easing 

531 Hits
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Index & ETF Signals - 10/16/2015 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major ETF's below are presented along with the Top 5 timing systems that beat "buy and hold," based on a series of 40 back-tested systems and a 6-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.

Baseline Analytics provides both the TrendFlex and MetaStock signals to look for alignment in the trend's characterization.  Also useful is to observe the weekly changes in the signals, which can provide an early indication of a trend shift.

ETF TrendFlex Signal Top 5 MetaStock Signals Comments
SPY  Neutral  1 Short/4 Long 

Improvement but nearing overbought 

DIA Neutral 1 Short/4 Long

 Reaching overbought level since August bottom

QQQ Long 0 Short/5 Long  Stronger price action
IWM  Neutral  2 Short/3 Long  Weaker than the other sector indices 
VGK Neutral 4 Long/1 Short   
EEM Short 2 Short/3 Long Double bottom formed; now overbought 
GLD Short 1 Short/4 Long  Resistance near 113-114; weekly charts underscore downtrend
TLT Long 3 Long/2 Short  
UUP  Neutral 3 Long/2 Short  Struggling to maintain upside 

486 Hits
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Index & ETF Signals - 10/09/2015 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major ETF's below are presented along with the Top 5 timing systems that beat "buy and hold," based on a series of 40 back-tested systems and a 6-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.

Baseline Analytics provides both the TrendFlex and MetaStock signals to look for alignment in the trend's characterization.  Also useful is to observe the weekly changes in the signals, which can provide an early indication of a trend shift.

Impressive comback for equity ETF's, however resistance (and overbought levels) cloud the reversal from the August lows.

ETF TrendFlex Signal Top 5 MetaStock Signals Comments
SPY  Short  1 Short/4 Long 

Nearing overbought 

DIA Short 1 Short/4 Long

 Reaching overbought level since August bottom

QQQ Short 0 Short/5 Long  Hitting resistance near 107
IWM  Short  2 Short/3 Long 
VGK Neutral 5 Long/0 Short   
EEM Short 2 Short/3 Long Double bottom formed; now overbought 
GLD Short 2 Short/3 Long  Resistance near 111
TLT Long 3 Long/2 Short  
UUP  Neutral 3 Long/2 Short  Struggling to maintain upside 

508 Hits
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Index & ETF Signals - 10/02/2015 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major ETF's below are presented along with the Top 5 timing systems that beat "buy and hold," based on a series of 40 back-tested systems and a 6-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.

Baseline Analytics provides both the TrendFlex and MetaStock signals to look for alignment in the trend's characterization.  Also useful is to observe the weekly changes in the signals, which can provide an early indication of a trend shift.

This week, UUP shifted from Long to Neutral.  The dollar is experiencing some new pressure as US rate increases look less imminent. VGK shifted from Short to Neutral. Although most ETF's have bounced from support at the August lows, more upside is needed to shift their trends to a more neutral/bullish character.

ETF TrendFlex Signal Top 5 MetaStock Signals Comments
SPY  Short  1 Short/4 Long 

Short-term MetaStock buy signals surfaced this week 

DIA Short 1 Short/4 Long

 Short-term MetaStock buy signals surfaced this week

QQQ Short 0 Short/5 Long  Looking healthier this week
IWM  Short  3 Short/2 Long  Weaker bounce compared to other index ETF's 
VGK Neutral 5 Long/0 Short  Impressive short-term shift this week;  
EEM Short 2 Short/3 Long Double bottom; possible long swing trade opportunity 
GLD Short 3 Short/2 Long  Still struggling to print an uptrend
TLT Long 3 Long/2 Short  
UUP  Neutral 3 Long/2 Short  Struggling to maintain upside 

482 Hits
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Index & ETF Signals - 09/25/2015 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major ETF's below are presented along with the Top 5 timing systems that beat "buy and hold," based on a series of 40 back-tested systems and a 6-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.

Baseline Analytics provides both the TrendFlex and MetaStock signals to look for alignment in the trend's characterization.  Also useful is to observe the weekly changes in the signals, which can provide an early indication of a trend shift.

TLT is showing divergence from our TrendFlex signal.  Although its long-term trend remains positive, short-term volatility has applied some recent pressure to the signal.

ETF TrendFlex Signal Top 5 MetaStock Signals Comments
SPY  Short  3 Short/2 Long 

1 long added on the week 

DIA Short 3 Short/2 Long

No change on the week 

QQQ Short 1 Short/4 Long  1 long added on the week
IWM  Short  4 Short/1 Long  1 short added on the week 
VGK Short 1 Long/4 Short  2 shorts added on the week 
EEM Short 5 Short/0 Long 1 short added on the week 
GLD Short 3 Short/2 Long  1 short added on the week
TLT Long 0 Long/5 Short 3 shorts added on the week; long term trend remains positive
UUP  Long  3 Long/2 Short  1 short added on the week 

 

456 Hits
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Index & ETF Signals - 09/11/2015 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major ETF's below are presented along with the Top 5 timing systems that beat "buy and hold," based on a series of 40 back-tested systems and a 6-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.

Baseline Analytics provides both the TrendFlex and MetaStock signals to look for alignment in the trend's characterization.  Also useful is to observe the weekly changes in the signals, which can provide an early indication of a trend shift.

ETF TrendFlex Signal Top 5 MetaStock Signals Comments
SPY  Short  4 Short/1 Long 

1 long added on the week 

DIA Short 3 Short/2 Long

1 long added on the week 

QQQ Short 3 Short/2 Long  Technical damage not as severe as DIA and SPY 
IWM  Short  3 Short/2 Long  2 longs added on the week 
VGK Short 3 Long/2 Short  1 long added on the week; Interesting triple bottom formation near current price 
EEM Short 41Short/1 Long 1 long added on the week 
GLD Short 3 Short/2 Long  2 longs added on the week
TLT Long 2 Long/3 Short TLT is oversold at major support; no signal changes this week
UUP  Long  3 Long/2 Short  1 long added on the week 

 

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Copy of Index & ETF Signals - 09/11/2015 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major ETF's below are presented along with the Top 5 timing systems that beat "buy and hold," based on a series of 40 back-tested systems and a 6-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.

Baseline Analytics provides both the TrendFlex and MetaStock signals to look for alignment in the trend's characterization.  Also useful is to observe the weekly changes in the signals, which can provide an early indication of a trend shift.

ETF TrendFlex Signal Top 5 MetaStock Signals Comments
SPY  Short  4 Short/1 Long 

No change on the week 

DIA Short 3 Short/2 Long

No change on the week 

QQQ Short 2 Short/3 Long  1 long added on the week
IWM  Short  3 Short/2 Long  No change on the week 
VGK Short 3 Long/2 Short  No change on the week 
EEM Short 4 Short/1 Long No change on the week 
GLD Short 2 Short/3 Long  No change on the week
TLT Long 3 Long/2 Short 1 long added on the week
UUP  Long  4 Long/1 Short  1 long added on the week 

 

472 Hits
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Index & ETF Signals - 09/04/2015 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major ETF's below are presented along with the Top 5 timing systems that beat "buy and hold," based on a series of 40 back-tested systems and a 6-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.

Baseline Analytics provides both the TrendFlex and MetaStock signals to look for alignment in the trend's characterization.  Also useful is to observe the weekly changes in the signals, which can provide an early indication of a trend shift.

ETF TrendFlex Signal Top 5 MetaStock Signals Comments
SPY  Short  5 Short/0 Long 

DIA Short 4 Short/1 Long

QQQ Short 3 Short/2 Long  Technical damage not as severe as DIA and SPY 
IWM  Short  5 Short/0 Long 
VGK Short 2 Long/3 Short  Interesting triple bottom formation near current price 
EEM Short 5 Short/0 Long Downtrend continues 
GLD Short 5 Short/0 Long  GLD continues to struggle to form a bottom 
TLT Long 2 Long/3 Short TLT is oversold at major support; CCI buy signal Friday
UUP  Long  2 Long/3 Short  Short-term technical buy signals for UUP 

 

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Index & ETF Signals - 08/28/2015 Update

Top 5 short-term timing systems results for major ETF's, based on a series of 40 back-tested systems, and a 3-month time horizon.  The timing systems are pre-defined in MetaStock based on traditional technical analysis tools and proprietary systems built by market technicians and offered in MetaStock.  Systems can generate a plethora of trading signals (some trade once or twice in a year, others can trade several times per month).

The chart below should be used as a general view of market trend, in conjunction with an overall assessment of the markets.  The value in the signals is in assessing the shift week-to-week, as well as the overall signal weight (i.e. 4 long and 1 short = "long").  Often a frequently-trading system will flash a signal that is contrary to the majority of the signals for a particular ETF.  This represents a short-term swing trade signal and tends to follow periods of high market volatility.

Last updated following 8/28/2015 market close.

 

SignalSelect08282015

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Index & ETF Signals - 08/21/2015 Update

Top 5 short-term timing systems results for major ETF's, based on a series of 40 back-tested systems, and a 3-month time horizon. 

Last updated following 8/21/2015 market close.

 

SignalSelect08212015

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Index & ETF Signals - 08/19/2015 Update

Top 5 short-term timing systems results for major ETF's, based on a series of 40 back-tested systems, and a 3-month time horizon. 

Last updated following 8/19/2015 market close.

 

SignalSelect08192015

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Index & ETF Signals - 08/10/2015 Update

Top 5 short-term timing systems results for major ETF's, based on a series of 40 back-tested systems, and a 3-month time horizon. 

Last updated following 8/10/2015 market close.

ETF Long Short Top System

Top System Entry Date

SPY 2 3 Short  7/22/15 
QQQ 4 1 Long 7/30/15
IWM 2 3 Short 8/5/15
VGK 2 3 Long 7/29/15 
EEM 3 2 Long  7/27/15
GLD 4 1 Long  7/23/15 
TLT  0 Short  7/17/15
UUP 4 Short  8/10/15 

 

 

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Index & ETF Signals - 08/7/2015 Update

Major indices remain on Uptrend to Neutral.   

 

ETF Today Week Ending 7/31/15 Comments
SPY Neutral Uptrend Setback but sustains long-term uptrend; short-term neutral
DIA Neutral Uptrend

Dow continues trading range

QQQ Uptrend Uptrend Settles back from new highs
IWM Neutral Neutral Small Caps weaken
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  Uptrend continues 
EEM Downtrend Downtrend Emerging markets struggle to find support
GDX Neutral Neutral GDX turns neutral; bottoming action remains interesting
TLT Neutral Neutral TLT strengthens from support
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Index & ETF Signals - 07/31/2015 Update

Major indices remain on Uptrend. GDX appears to be forming a new bottom. EEM (Emerging Markets) continue to struggle.  

 

ETF Today Week Ending 7/24/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Uptrend Bounce on modest volume
DIA Uptrend Neutral

Dow retakes its 200-day moving average

QQQ Uptrend Uptrend Settles back from new highs
IWM Neutral Neutral Small Caps weaken
VGK Uptrend Uptrend  Uptrend continues depite recent pullback
EEM Downtrend Neutral Emerging markets struggle to find support
GDX Neutral Downtrend GDX turns neutral; bottoming action looks interesting
TLT Neutral Neutral TLT bounces from support
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Index & ETF Signals - 07/10/2015 Update

What a difference a week makes!  Major indices shifted from Neutral to Uptrend on the week, including VGK.  EEM continues to struggle; GDX broke down on the week.  TLT continues to find support in the 115-116 area. 

 

ETF Today Week Ending 7/10/15 Comments
SPY Uptrend Neutral Uptrend resumed
DIA Uptrend Neutral

Uptrend resumed; a bit tentative on Friday

QQQ Uptrend Neutral Impressive breakout to new highs
IWM Uptrend Uptrend Small Caps continue to outperform
VGK Uptrend Neutral  Uptrend resumed
EEM Neutral Neutral Emerging markets remain neutral 
GDX Downtrend Neutral GDX breaks support
TLT Downtrend Downtrend TLT remains at support
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