TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend.
Major Index ETF's
Trend Change Risk
|DIA||Bullish||Med||Strong breakout to highs|
|SPY||Bullish||Med||Breakout to highs|
|QQQ||Bullish||Low||Flat trading range; oversold, long opportunity|
|IWM||Bullish||Low||Strong breakout to highs; bullish for equities overall|
|DBA||Bearish||Med||Double bottom failure|
|GLD||Bearish||Med||Deeply oversold but technically weak; consider small long adds|
|VGK||Neutral||Hi||Meandering near 44-45 support; looking for shift to upside|
|UUP||Bullish||Low||Clear uptrend but overbought|
|TLT||Bearish||Hi||Near major weekly support; positive divergence forming; contrarian buy?|
|EEM||Bearish||Med||Sharp selloff; avoid for now; nearing oversold|
Sector SPDR ETF's
Trend Change Risk
|XLK||Bullish||Low||Attractive entry point following setback|
|XLU||Neutral||Hi||Oversold; look for recovery|
|XLV||Bullish||Low||Still an attractive entry point|
|XLP||Neutral||Hi||Oversold; look for recovery|
|XLY||Bullish||Low||Modest pullback; attractive entry|
ETF Wrapper Reports
Baseline Analytics searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software to identify technical patterns that suggest timely trading opportunities. Click on the icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find ideal setups. Date represents data from that day's market close. Visit frequently, as this table is updated throughout the week.
|Wrapper Name||Description||Wrapper Link||Date|
|Bullish ETF's||ETF's trading in an uptrend, not overbought, actively-traded, price>$10. Excludes leveraged ETF's||12/02/16|
ETF Technical Leaders
The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list.
|EWI||iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed||22.13||12/02/16|
|XLY||Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point||81.44||12/02/16|
|XLV||Post-election catch-up; nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)||70.49||11/11/16|
Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis. Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon. Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.
Asset Allocation Strategy - 12/02/2016