Index & ETF Signals

Market risk assessment tools and tactical investment opportunities driven by curated financial insight

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 2/24/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi Breakout to new high; overbought
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 New high; overbought

 QQQ Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 IWM Bullish Med Settled back a bit from highs
 DBA Bearish Med Setback from forming from long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Hi Near resistance; overbought
 VGK Bullish Low Positive momentum; firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Med Trading range but looking healthy
 TLT Bearish Med Resistance near 122
EEM Bullish Low Break to highs; overbought; entery near 37.5


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi New highs; overbought
XLU Bullish Med Broke resistance at 51; overbought
XLI  Bullish Hi Bullish breakout; overbought
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend forming; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Med Nice breakout; firm uptrend; resistance 75.50
XLE Bullish Low Attractive entry following consolidation 
XLP  Bullish Med Nice rally; resumption of uptrend; a bit overbought
XLY Bullish Med Bullish breakout
XLF  Bullish Hi Bullish breakout


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 2/24/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1036 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 2/10/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med Breakout to new high; overbought
 SPY  Bullish Med

 New high; overbought

 QQQ Bullish Med New high; overbought
 IWM Bullish Med  Break out to new high
 DBA Bullish Lo Uptrend forming from long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Hi Near resistance; overbought
 VGK Bullish Low Positive momentum; firm uptrend
 UUP Bullish Med Hitting resistance
 TLT Bearish Med Testing December lows
EEM Bullish Low Rallying; long way to new highs; nice long potential


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med New highs; overbought
XLU Bullish Hi Consolidating recent gains; looking to resume uptrend
XLI  Bullish Med Bullish breakout; overbought
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend forming; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Hi Hitting resistance and overbought 
XLE Bullish Low Attractive entry following consolidation 
XLP  Bullish Low Uptrend firming; attractive entry
XLY Bullish Med Bullish breakout
XLF  Bullish Med Bullish breakout


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 2/3/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1021 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 2/3/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med Breakout to new high
 SPY  Bullish Med

 New high

 QQQ Bullish Med New high 
 IWM Bullish Med  Break out
 DBA Bearish Lo Uptrend forming
 GLD Bullish Low Positive moving average cross; long run potential 
 VGK Bullish Low Positive momentum; firm uptrend
 UUP Bullish Low Modest retracement; attractive entry 
 TLT Bearish Med Testing December lows
EEM Bullish Low Rallying to new highs


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med New highs 
XLU Bullish Hi Consolidating recent gains; looking to resume uptrend
XLI  Bullish Med Bullish breakout
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend forming; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Low Returning to an uptrend 
XLE Bullish Low Attractive entry 
XLP  Bullish Low Uptrend firming; attractive entry
XLY Bullish Med Bullish breakout
XLF  Bullish Med Bullish breakout


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 2/3/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1011 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 1/27/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med Breakout to new high
 SPY  Bullish Med

 New high

 QQQ Bullish Med New high 
 IWM Bullish Med  Break out
 DBA Bearish Lo Rally looking tired
 GLD Bullish Low Positive moving average cross 
 VGK Bullish Low Positive momentum; firm uptrend
 UUP Bullish Low Modest retracement; attractive entry 
 TLT Bearish Med Testing December lows
EEM Bullish Low Resumption of uptrend


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med New highs 
XLU Bullish Hi Consolidating recent gains
XLI  Bullish Med Bullish breakout
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend forming
XLV  Bullish Low Slowly returning to an uptrend 
XLE Bullish Low Attractive entry 
XLP  Bullish Low Uptrend firming; attractive entry
XLY Bullish Med Bullish breakout
XLF  Bullish Med Bullish breakout


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 1/13/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1040 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 1/20/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med Trading-range pattern, looking to break out 
 SPY  Bullish Med  Trading-range pattern, looking to break out
 QQQ Bullish Med New highs 
 IWM Bullish Med  Trading-range pattern, looking to break out
 DBA Bearish Lo Rally looking tired
 GLD Bullish Low Positive moving average cross 
 VGK Bullish Low Positive momentum; firm uptrend
 UUP Bullish Low Modest retracement; attractive entry 
 TLT Bearish Med Testing December lows
EEM Bullish Low Resumption of uptrend


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med New highs 
XLU Bullish Hi Consolidating recent gains
XLI  Bullish Med Trading-range pattern, looking to break out 
XLB Bullish Low Trading-range pattern, looking to break out 
XLV  Bullish Low Slowly returning to an uptrend 
XLE Bullish Low Attractive entry 
XLP  Bullish Low Uptrend firming; attractive entry
XLY Bullish Med Overbought 
XLF  Bullish Med Trading-range pattern, looking to break out


 

ETF Wrapper Reports

Baseline Analytics searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software to identify technical patterns that suggest timely trading opportunities. Click on the wrapper   icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find ideal setups.  Date represents data from that day's market close.  Visit frequently, as this table is updated throughout the week.

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Bullish ETF's ETF's trading in an uptrend, not overbought, actively-traded, price>$10. Excludes leveraged ETF's wrapper 12/02/16

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 1/13/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1031 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 1/13/17 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med Trading-range pattern, looking to break out 
 SPY  Bullish Med  Trading-range pattern, looking to break out
 QQQ Bullish Med New highs 
 IWM Bullish Med  Trading-range pattern, looking to break out
 DBA Bearish Lo Rally looking tired
 GLD Bearish Low Overbought 
 VGK Bullish Low Positive momentum; firm uptrend
 UUP Bullish Low Modest retracement; attractive entry 
 TLT Bearish Med Oversold 
EEM Bullish Low Resumption of uptrend


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med New highs 
XLU Bullish Hi Consolidating recent gains
XLI  Bullish Med Trading-range pattern, looking to break out 
XLB Bullish Low Trading-range pattern, looking to break out 
XLV  Bullish Low Slowly returning to an uptrend 
XLE Bullish Low  
XLP  Bullish Med Uptrend looking tired
XLY Bullish Med  
XLF  Bullish Med Trading-range pattern, looking to break out


 

ETF Wrapper Reports

Baseline Analytics searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software to identify technical patterns that suggest timely trading opportunities. Click on the wrapper   icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find ideal setups.  Date represents data from that day's market close.  Visit frequently, as this table is updated throughout the week.

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Bullish ETF's ETF's trading in an uptrend, not overbought, actively-traded, price>$10. Excludes leveraged ETF's wrapper 12/02/16

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 1/13/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1012 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 1/6/17 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med  
 SPY  Bullish Med  
 QQQ Bullish Med  
 IWM Bullish Low  
 DBA Bearish Hi Bottoming process 
 GLD Bearish Med  
 VGK Bullish Low Positive momentum; firm uptrend
 UUP Bullish Low  
 TLT Bearish Med Oversold 
EEM Bullish Low Firm uptrend


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med  
XLU Bullish Med Resuming its uptrend 
XLI  Bullish Med  
XLB Bullish Low  
XLV  Bullish Low  
XLE Bullish Low  
XLP  Bullish Low Uptrend catching on 
XLY Bullish Med  
XLF  Bullish Med  


 

ETF Wrapper Reports

Baseline Analytics searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software to identify technical patterns that suggest timely trading opportunities. Click on the wrapper   icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find ideal setups.  Date represents data from that day's market close.  Visit frequently, as this table is updated throughout the week.

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Bullish ETF's ETF's trading in an uptrend, not overbought, actively-traded, price>$10. Excludes leveraged ETF's wrapper 12/02/16

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 1/1/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
974 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 12/23/16 Update

No Updates planned for 12/30 market close.

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish High Overbought 
 SPY  Bullish Med  
 QQQ Bullish Med  
 IWM Bullish Low  
 DBA Bearish Med Bottoming process 
 GLD Bearish Med 100-102 major support; attractive cost-avg. entry 
 VGK Bullish Low Positive momentum; nice entry point 
 UUP Bullish Low  
 TLT Bearish Hi Oversold 
EEM Bearish Med Laggard searching for a bottom 


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Low  
XLU Neutral Hi Resuming its uptrend 
XLI  Bullish High  
XLB Bullish Low  
XLV  Bullish Low Attractive entry 
XLE Bullish Low Overbought 
XLP  Bullish Low New uptrend 
XLY Bullish Med  
XLF  Bullish Med Overbought 


 

ETF Wrapper Reports

Baseline Analytics searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software to identify technical patterns that suggest timely trading opportunities. Click on the wrapper   icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find ideal setups.  Date represents data from that day's market close.  Visit frequently, as this table is updated throughout the week.

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Bullish ETF's ETF's trading in an uptrend, not overbought, actively-traded, price>$10. Excludes leveraged ETF's wrapper 12/02/16

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 12/16/2016   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
963 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 12/16/16 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med Breakout to highs
 SPY  Bullish Med Breakout to highs 
 QQQ Bullish Low Finally catching up to the broader market
 IWM Bullish Low Strong breakout to highs; bullish for equities overall
 DBA Bearish Med Struggling to find a base
 GLD Bearish Med Deeply oversold but technically weak
 VGK Bullish Low Bounced from 40-45 support; crossed 50-day average
 UUP Bullish Low Clear uptrend but overbought
 TLT Bearish Hi Remains near major support near 117; oversold
EEM Bearish Low  Weak technicals; support near 34

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Low  Attractive entry point following setback
XLU Neutral Hi

Oversold; at major support

XLI  Bullish Low Bullish breakout
XLB Bullish Low Bullish breakou; attractive entry point
XLV  Bullish Low Still an attractive entry point 
XLE Bullish Low Overbought
XLP  Bullish Low Uptrend resumed
XLY Bullish Med Bounced as expected; now overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Overbought 

 

 

ETF Wrapper Reports

Baseline Analytics searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software to identify technical patterns that suggest timely trading opportunities. Click on the wrapper   icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find ideal setups.  Date represents data from that day's market close.  Visit frequently, as this table is updated throughout the week.

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Bullish ETF's ETF's trading in an uptrend, not overbought, actively-traded, price>$10. Excludes leveraged ETF's wrapper 12/02/16

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 12/16/2016   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
963 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 12/09/16 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med Breakout to highs
 SPY  Bullish Med Breakout to highs 
 QQQ Bullish Low Finally catching up to the broader market
 IWM Bullish Low Strong breakout to highs; bullish for equities overall
 DBA Bearish Med Double bottom failure
 GLD Bearish Med Deeply oversold but technically weak; consider small long adds
 VGK Bullish Low Bounced from 40-45 support; crossed 50-day average
 UUP Bullish Low Clear uptrend but overbought
 TLT Bearish Hi Remains near major weekly support; oversold
EEM Bearish Med  Sharp selloff; bounce may be weakening

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Low  Attractive entry point following setback
XLU Neutral Hi

Oversold; at major support

XLI  Bullish Low Bullish breakout
XLB Bullish Low Bullish breakout 
XLV  Bullish Low Still an attractive entry point 
XLE Bullish Low Overbought
XLP  Neutral Hi Oversold; at major support;  look for recovery 
XLY Bullish Med Bounced as expected; now overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Overbought 

 

 

ETF Wrapper Reports

Baseline Analytics searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software to identify technical patterns that suggest timely trading opportunities. Click on the wrapper   icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find ideal setups.  Date represents data from that day's market close.  Visit frequently, as this table is updated throughout the week.

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Bullish ETF's ETF's trading in an uptrend, not overbought, actively-traded, price>$10. Excludes leveraged ETF's wrapper 12/02/16

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 12/02/2016   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials      ♦     
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
969 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 12/02/16 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med Strong breakout to highs
 SPY  Bullish Med Breakout to highs 
 QQQ Bullish Low Flat trading range; oversold, long opportunity
 IWM Bullish Low Strong breakout to highs; bullish for equities overall
 DBA Bearish Med Double bottom failure
 GLD Bearish Med Deeply oversold but technically weak; consider small long adds
 VGK Neutral Hi Meandering near 44-45 support; looking for shift to upside
 UUP Bullish Low Clear uptrend but overbought
 TLT Bearish Hi Near major weekly support; positive divergence forming; contrarian buy?
EEM Bearish Med  Sharp selloff; avoid for now; nearing oversold

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Low  Attractive entry point following setback
XLU Neutral Hi Oversold; look for recovery
XLI  Bullish Low Bullish breakout
XLB Bullish Low Bullish breakout 
XLV  Bullish Low Still an attractive entry point 
XLE Bullish Low Firm uptrend
XLP  Neutral Hi Oversold; look for recovery 
XLY Bullish Low Modest pullback; attractive entry 
XLF  Bullish Med Overbought 

 

 

ETF Wrapper Reports

Baseline Analytics searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software to identify technical patterns that suggest timely trading opportunities. Click on the wrapper   icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find ideal setups.  Date represents data from that day's market close.  Visit frequently, as this table is updated throughout the week.

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Bullish ETF's ETF's trading in an uptrend, not overbought, actively-traded, price>$10. Excludes leveraged ETF's wrapper 12/02/16

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 12/02/2016   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials      ♦     
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
962 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 11/25/16 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. The "Trend Risk" column characterizes the risk of a change in the trend. "Prior Signal" column is reset following each week's close.

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med Strong breakout to highs
 SPY  Bullish Med Breakout to highs 
 QQQ Bullish Low Flat trading range; attempting to breakout
 IWM Bullish Low Strong breakout to highs; bullish for equities overall
 DBA Neutral Low Long base forming; potential double bottom bears watching
 GLD Bearish Med Nearing oversold levels but technically weak
 VGK Neutral Med Meandering near 44-45 support 
 UUP Bullish Low Clear uptrend but overbought
 TLT Bearish Hi Near major weekly support; positive divergence forming
EEM Bearish Low  Sharp selloff; avoid for now; nearing oversold

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Low  Attractive entry point
XLU Neutral Hi Oversold; look for recovery
XLI  Bullish Med New high
XLB Bullish Low Bullish breakout 
XLV  Bullish Low Attractive entry point 
XLE Bullish Low Attractive entry point 
XLP  Neutral Hi Oversold; look for recovery 
XLY Bullish Low  
XLF  Bullish Med Overbought 

 

 

ETF Wrapper Reports

Baseline Analytics searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software to identify technical patterns that suggest timely trading opportunities. Click on the wrapper   icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find ideal setups.  Date represents data from that day's market close.  Visit frequently, as this table is updated throughout the week.

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Bullish ETF's ETF's with a new buy signal and trading in an uptrend. Not overbought, actively-traded, price>$10. Excludes leveraged ETF's wrapper 11/7/16

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table of stock symbols represents ETF's that are either in bullish or bearish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points. Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Click on the stock symbol for the chart.  

ETF Technical Leaders 

Prime Technical Leaders represent companies with impressive fundamental financial criteria and a technically-attractive entry point.  Leaders are added as opportunities arise from our nightly screening.  Please note that this list is time-sensitive due to market volatility.

None at this time

Symbol Rationale Date Close Date Added
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day) 11/11/16  70.49 11/11/16 
          

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 11/18/2016   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities          
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials      ♦     
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
965 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 11/18/16 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. The "Trend Risk" column characterizes the risk of a change in the trend. "Prior Signal" column is reset following each week's close.

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Low Strong breakout to highs
 SPY  Bullish Low  
 QQQ Bullish Low Flat trading range; look for breakout
 IWM Bullish Low Strong breakout to highs; bullish for equities overall
 DBA Neutral Low Long base forming; potential double bottom bears watching
 GLD Bearish Med Nearing oversold levels
 VGK Neutral Med  
 UUP Bullish Low Major breakout 
 TLT Bearish Hi Near major weekly support
EEM Bearish Low  Sharp selloff; avoid for now; nearing oversold

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Low  Attractive entry point
XLU Neutral Hi Oversold 
XLI  Bullish Low  
XLB Bullish Low Potential bullish breakout 
XLV  Bullish Low Attractive entry point 
XLE Bullish Low Attractive entry point 
XLP  Neutral Hi Oversold 
XLY Bullish Low  
XLF  Bullish Med Overbought 

 

 

ETF Wrapper Reports

Baseline Analytics searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software to identify technical patterns that suggest timely trading opportunities. Click on the wrapper   icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find ideal setups.  Date represents data from that day's market close.  Visit frequently, as this table is updated throughout the week.

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Bullish ETF's ETF's with a new buy signal and trading in an uptrend. Not overbought, actively-traded, price>$10. Excludes leveraged ETF's wrapper 11/7/16

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table of stock symbols represents ETF's that are either in bullish or bearish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points. Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Click on the stock symbol for the chart.  

ETF Technical Leaders 

Prime Technical Leaders represent companies with impressive fundamental financial criteria and a technically-attractive entry point.  Leaders are added as opportunities arise from our nightly screening.  Please note that this list is time-sensitive due to market volatility.

None at this time

Symbol Rationale Entry Date Added
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
        

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 11/18/2016   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities          
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps           

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials      ♦     
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
963 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 11/11/16 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. The "Trend Risk" column characterizes the risk of a change in the trend. "Prior Signal" column is reset following each week's close.

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Low Strong breakout to highs
 SPY  Bullish Low  
 QQQ Bullish Low Flat trading range; look for breakout
 IWM Bullish Low Strong breakout to highs
 DBA Bearish Low  
 GLD Bearish Med Nearing oversold levels
 VGK Neutral Med  
 UUP Bullish Low  
 TLT Bearish Hi Near major weekly support
EEM Bearish Low  Sharp selloff; avoid for now

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Low  Attractive entry point
XLU Neutral Hi Oversold 
XLI  Bullish Low  
XLB Bearish Low  
XLV  Bullish Low Attractive entry point 
XLE Bullish Low Attractive entry point 
XLP  Neutral Hi Oversold 
XLY Bullish Low  
XLF  Bullish Low Sharp jump; overbought 

 

 

ETF Wrapper Reports

Baseline Analytics searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software to identify technical patterns that suggest timely trading opportunities. Click on the wrapper   icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find ideal setups.  Date represents data from that day's market close.  Visit frequently, as this table is updated throughout the week.

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Bullish ETF's ETF's with a new buy signal and trading in an uptrend. Not overbought, actively-traded, price>$10. Excludes leveraged ETF's wrapper 11/7/16

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table of stock symbols represents ETF's that are either in bullish or bearish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points. Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Click on the stock symbol for the chart.  

ETF Technical Leaders 

Prime Technical Leaders represent companies with impressive fundamental financial criteria and a technically-attractive entry point.  Leaders are added as opportunities arise from our nightly screening.  Please note that this list is time-sensitive due to market volatility.

None at this time

Symbol Rationale Entry Date Added
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
        

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 11/5/2016   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities          
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps           

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials      ♦     
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
971 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 11/4/16 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. The "Trend Risk" column characterizes the risk of a change in the trend. "Prior Signal" column is reset following each week's close.

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend  Date

Trend Change Risk

 DIA BULLISH  11/7/16 HI
 SPY  BULLISH 6/29/16 HI
 QQQ BULLISH 7/8/16 MED
 IWM  BULLISH  3/1/16 MED
 DBA BEARISH 7/8/16 MED
 GLD BEARISH 9/20/16 LOW
 VGK BEARISH 9/23/16 LOW
 UUP BULLISH 9/16/16 LOW
 TLT BULLISH  9/23/16 HI
EEM BULLISH 5/6/16 MED

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend  Date

Trend Change Risk

XLK BULLISH 6/29/16 LOW
XLU BULLISH 9/23/16  HI
XLI  BEARISH 11/4/16 LOW
XLB BEARISH 9/12/16 LOW
XLV  BEARISH 11/4/16 LOW
XLE  BULLISH 3/2/16 MED
XLP  BULLISH 9/30/16 HI
XLY BEARISH 11/4/16 LOW
XLF  BULLISH 7/13/16 LOW

 

 

ETF Wrapper Reports

Baseline Analytics searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software to identify technical patterns that suggest timely trading opportunities. Click on the wrapper   icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find ideal setups.  Date represents data from that day's market close.  Visit frequently, as this table is updated throughout the week.

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Bullish ETF's ETF's with a new buy signal and trading in an uptrend. Not overbought, actively-traded, price>$10. Excludes leveraged ETF's wrapper 11/7/16

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table of stock symbols represents ETF's that are either in bullish or bearish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points. Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Click on the stock symbol for the chart.  

ETF Technical Leaders 

Prime Technical Leaders represent companies with impressive fundamental financial criteria and a technically-attractive entry point.  Leaders are added as opportunities arise from our nightly screening.  Please note that this list is time-sensitive due to market volatility.

None at this time

Symbol Symbol & Chart Rationale Sector Ranking Entry Initial Target Stop Date Added
             
               
                

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 11/5/2016   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities      ♦     
Fixed Income                 
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps        

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials      ♦     
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
988 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 10/28 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. The "Trend Risk" column characterizes the risk of a change in the trend. "Prior Signal" column is reset following each week's close.

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend  Date

Trend Change Risk

 DIA BULLISH  9/30/16 MED
 SPY  BULLISH 6/29/16 MED
 QQQ BULLISH 7/8/16 LOW
 IWM  BULLISH  3/1/16 MED
 DBA BEARISH 7/8/16 LOW
 GLD BEARISH 9/20/16 LOW
 VGK BEARISH 9/23/16 LOW
 UUP BULLISH 9/16/16 LOW
 TLT BULLISH  9/23/16 HI
EEM BULLISH 5/6/16 LOW

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend  Date

Trend Change Risk

XLK BULLISH 6/29/16 LOW
XLU BULLISH 9/23/16  HI
XLI  BULLISH 9/30/16 MED
XLB BEARISH 9/12/16 LOW
XLV  BULLISH 9/25/16 HI
XLE  BULLISH 3/2/16 LOW
XLP  BULLISH 9/30/16 HI
XLY BULLISH 9/30/16 HI
XLF  BULLISH 7/13/16 LOW

 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 11/4/2016   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities      ♦     
Fixed Income                 
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps        

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials      ♦     
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
947 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 10/21 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. The "Trend Risk" column characterizes the risk of a change in the trend. "Prior Signal" column is reset following each week's close.

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend  Date

Trend Change Risk

 DIA BULLISH  9/30/16 MED
 SPY  BULLISH 6/29/16 MED
 QQQ BULLISH 7/8/16 LOW
 IWM  BULLISH  3/1/16 MED
 DBA BEARISH 7/8/16 LOW
 GLD BEARISH 9/20/16 LOW
 VGK BEARISH 9/23/16 LOW
 UUP BULLISH 9/16/16 LOW
 TLT BULLISH  9/23/16 HI
EEM BULLISH 5/6/16 LOW

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend  Date

Trend Change Risk

XLK BULLISH 6/29/16 LOW
XLU BULLISH 9/23/16  HI
XLI  BULLISH 9/30/16 MED
XLB BEARISH 9/12/16 LOW
XLV  BULLISH 9/25/16 HI
XLE  BULLISH 3/2/16 LOW
XLP  BULLISH 9/30/16 HI
XLY BULLISH 9/30/16 HI
XLF  BULLISH 7/13/16 LOW
934 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 10/14 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. The "Trend Risk" column characterizes the risk of a change in the trend. "Prior Signal" column is reset following each week's close.

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend  Date

Trend Change Risk

 DIA BULLISH  9/30/16 MED
 SPY  BULLISH 6/29/16 MED
 QQQ BULLISH 7/8/16 LOW
 IWM  BULLISH  3/1/16 MED
 DBA BEARISH 7/8/16 LOW
 GLD BEARISH 9/20/16 LOW
 VGK BEARISH 9/23/16 LOW
 UUP BULLISH 9/16/16 LOW
 TLT BULLISH  9/23/16 MED
EEM BULLISH 5/6/16 LOW

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend  Date

Trend Change Risk

XLK BULLISH 6/29/16 LOW
XLU BULLISH 9/23/16  HI
XLI  BULLISH 9/30/16 MED
XLB BEARISH 9/12/16 LOW
XLV  BULLISH 9/25/16 HI
XLE  BULLISH 3/2/16 LOW
XLP  BULLISH 9/30/16 HI
XLY BULLISH 9/30/16 HI
XLF  BULLISH 7/13/16 MED
922 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 10/7 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. The "Trend Risk" column characterizes the risk of a change in the trend. "Prior Signal" column is reset following each week's close.

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend  Date

Trend Change Risk

Prior Signal; New Signal Date
 DIA BULLISH  9/30/16 MED  
 SPY  BULLISH 6/29/16 LOW  
 QQQ BULLISH 7/8/16 LOW  
 IWM  BULLISH  3/1/16 LOW  
 DBA BEARISH 7/8/16 LOW  
 GLD BULLISH 9/20/16 MED  
 VGK BEARISH 9/23/16 MED  
 UUP BULLISH 9/16/16 LOW  
 TLT BULLISH  9/23/16 MED  
EEM BULLISH 5/6/16 LOW  

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend  Date

Trend Change Risk

Prior Signal; New Signal Date
XLK BULLISH 6/29/16 LOW  
XLU BULLISH 9/23/16  HI  
XLI  BULLISH 9/30/16 MED  
XLB BULLISH 9/12/16 HI  
XLV  BULLISH 9/25/16 MED  
XLE  BULLISH 3/2/16 LOW  
XLP  BULLISH 9/30/16 HI  
XLY BULLISH 9/30/16 HI  
XLF  BULLISH 7/13/16 LOW  
918 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 10/3 Thru 10/7 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. The "Trend Risk" column characterizes the risk of a change in the trend. "Prior Signal" column is reset following each week's close.

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend  Date

Trend Change Risk

Prior Signal; New Signal Date
 DIA BULLISH  9/30/16 MED  
 SPY  BULLISH 6/29/16 LOW  
 QQQ BULLISH 7/8/16 LOW  
 IWM  BULLISH  3/1/16 LOW  
 DBA BEARISH 7/8/16 LOW  
 GLD BULLISH 9/20/16 MED  
 VGK BEARISH 9/23/16 MED  
 UUP BULLISH 9/16/16 LOW  
 TLT BULLISH  9/23/16 MED  
EEM BULLISH 5/6/16 LOW  

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend  Date

Trend Change Risk

Prior Signal; New Signal Date
XLK BULLISH 6/29/16 MED  
XLU BULLISH 9/23/16  MED  
XLI  BULLISH 9/30/16 MED  
XLB BULLISH 9/12/16 MED  
XLV  BULLISH 9/25/16 MED  
XLE  BULLISH 3/2/16 LOW  
XLP  BULLISH 9/30/16 MED  
XLY BULLISH 9/30/16 MED  
XLF  BULLISH 7/13/16 MED  
918 Hits
0 Comments