Index & ETF Signals

Market risk assessment tools and tactical investment opportunities driven by curated financial insight

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 9/22/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 Increased risk of pullback

 QQQ Bullish Med Tradding range; attractive entry
 IWM Bullish Med New high; overbought
 DBA Bearish Low Way oversold; can't seem to find a bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position; attractive entry point
 VGK Bullish Low Working toward new high
 UUP Bearish High Looking for a bounce
 TLT Bullish Med Attractive entry point
EEM Bullish Med Overbought


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Overbought
XLU Bullish Low Attractive entry
XLI  Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback
XLB Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLE Bullish Low New uptrend; may see trading range
XLP  Bullish Hi Threatening support
XLY Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLF  Bullish Hi Overbought


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
6 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 9/15/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 Increased risk of pullback

 QQQ Bullish Med Tradding range; attractive entry
 IWM Bullish Med Bouncing from support
 DBA Bearish Low Way oversold; can't seem to find a bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position; but lingering trading range
 VGK Bullish Low Working toward new high
 UUP Bearish Med Seeking major support
 TLT Bullish Med Continued trading range
EEM Bullish Low Bullish breakout


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med Atttractive entry
XLU Bullish Hi Overbought
XLI  Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback
XLB Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLE Bearish Hi At major support; potential bounce here
XLP  Bullish Hi Threatening support
XLY Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry after modest pullback


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
21 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 9/08/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 Increased risk of pullback

 QQQ Bullish Med Tradding range; attractive entry
 IWM Bullish Med Bouncing from support
 DBA Bearish Low Way oversold; can't seem to find a bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position; but lingering trading range
 VGK Bullish Low Working toward new high
 UUP Bearish Med Seeking major support
 TLT Bullish Med Continued trading range
EEM Bullish Low Bullish breakout


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med Atttractive entry
XLU Bullish Hi Overbought
XLI  Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback
XLB Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLE Bearish Hi At major support; potential bounce here
XLP  Bullish Hi Threatening support
XLY Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry after modest pullback


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
31 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 9/01/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 Increased risk of pullback

 QQQ Bullish Med Tradding range; attractive entry
 IWM Bullish Med Bouncing from support
 DBA Bearish Low Way oversold; can't seem to find a bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position; but lingering trading range
 VGK Bullish Low Working toward new high
 UUP Bearish Med Seeking major support
 TLT Bullish Med Continued trading range
EEM Bullish Low Bullish breakout


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med Atttractive entry
XLU Bullish Hi Overbought
XLI  Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback
XLB Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLE Bearish Hi At major support; potential bounce here
XLP  Bullish Hi Threatening support
XLY Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry after modest pullback


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 7/9/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income                     
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
37 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 8/25/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 Increased risk of pullback

 QQQ Bullish Med Tradding range; attractive entry
 IWM Bullish Med Bouncing from support
 DBA Bearish Low Way oversold; can't seem to find a bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position; but lingering trading range
 VGK Bullish Low Working toward new high
 UUP Bearish Med Seeking major support
 TLT Bullish Med Continued trading range
EEM Bullish Low Bullish breakout


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med Atttractive entry
XLU Bullish Hi Overbought
XLI  Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback
XLB Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLE Bearish Hi At major support; potential bounce here
XLP  Bullish Hi Threatening support
XLY Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry after modest pullback


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 7/9/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income                     
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
41 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 7/14/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi New high; increased risk of pullback
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 New high; increased risk of pullback

 QQQ Bullish Hi Nice pullback; attractive entry
 IWM Bullish Med Pushing toward resistance
 DBA Bearish Low Recent surge as USD weakens, overhead resistance
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Low Working toward new high
 UUP Bullish Low Looking for support
 TLT Bullish Med Continued trading range
EEM Bullish Low Pushing toward new high; recent trading range


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med Atttractive entry
XLU Bullish Hi Threatening major support
XLI  Bullish Hi Trading range; increased risk of pullback
XLB Bullish Low Pushing toward high
XLV  Bullish Low Attractive entry
XLE Bearish Med Looking for support; possibly formed a higher low
XLP  Bullish Hi Threatening support
XLY Bullish Hi Trading range; increased risk of pullback
XLF  Bullish Hi New high; beware double top


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 7/9/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income                     
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1352 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 7/7/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi Trading range; increased risk of pullback
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 Trading range; increased risk of pullback

 QQQ Bullish Hi Nice pullback; attractive entry
 IWM Bullish Med Pushing toward resistance
 DBA Bearish Low Recent surge as USD weakens, overhead resistance
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Low Working toward new high
 UUP Bullish Low Looking for support
 TLT Bullish Med Continued trading range
EEM Bullish Low Pushing toward new high; recent trading range


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med Atttractive entry
XLU Bullish Hi Threatening major support
XLI  Bullish Hi Trading range; increased risk of pullback
XLB Bullish Low Pushing toward high
XLV  Bullish Low Attractive entry
XLE Bearish Med Looking for support; possibly formed a higher low
XLP  Bullish Hi Threatening support
XLY Bullish Hi Trading range; increased risk of pullback
XLF  Bullish Hi New high; beware double top


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 7/9/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income                     
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1432 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 6/30/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 New high, overbought

 QQQ Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 IWM Bullish Med Pushing toward resistance
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Med Working toward new high
 UUP Bullish Low Consolidating
 TLT Bullish Med Working on new uptrend; trading range more likely
EEM Bullish Med Pushing toward new high


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; overbought
XLU Bullish Hi Overbought
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Med Pushing toward high
XLV  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLE Bearish Med Looking for support
XLP  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry at support


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 6/2/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1360 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 6/23/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 New high, overbought

 QQQ Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 IWM Bullish Med Pushing toward resistance
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Med Working toward new high
 UUP Bullish Low Consolidating
 TLT Bullish Med Working on new uptrend; trading range more likely
EEM Bullish Med Pushing toward new high


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; overbought
XLU Bullish Hi Overbought
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Med Pushing toward high
XLV  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLE Bearish Med Looking for support
XLP  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry at support


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 6/2/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1338 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 6/162017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 New high, overbought

 QQQ Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 IWM Bullish Med Pusing toward resistance
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Med Working toward new high
 UUP Bullish Low Consolidating
 TLT Bullish Med Working on new uptrend; trading range more likely
EEM Bullish Med Pushing toward new high


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; overbought
XLU Bullish Hi Overbought
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Med Pushing toward high
XLV  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLE Bearish Med Looking for support
XLP  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry at support


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 6/2/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1346 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 6/9/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 New high, overbought

 QQQ Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 IWM Bullish Med Pusing toward resistance
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Med Working toward new high
 UUP Bullish Low Consolidating
 TLT Bullish Med Working on new uptrend; trading range more likely
EEM Bullish Med Pushing toward new high


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; overbought
XLU Bullish Hi Overbought
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Med Pushing toward high
XLV  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLE Bearish Med Looking for support
XLP  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry at support


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 6/2/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1329 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 6/2/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 New high, overbought

 QQQ Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 IWM Bullish Med Pusing toward resistance
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Med Working toward new high
 UUP Bullish Low Consolidating
 TLT Bullish Med Working on new uptrend; trading range more likely
EEM Bullish Med Pushing toward new high


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; overbought
XLU Bullish Hi Overbought
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Med Pushing toward high
XLV  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLE Bearish Med Looking for support
XLP  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry at support


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 6/2/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1340 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 5/26/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med New high; nearing overbought
 SPY  Bullish Med

 New high, nearing overbought

 QQQ Bullish Med New high; overbought
 IWM Bullish Med At support; attractive entry
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Low Firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Attractive entry following consolidation
 TLT Bearish Hi Broke resistance near 122.
EEM Bullish Low Overbought


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med Strong trend; overbought
XLU Bullish Med Trading range
XLI  Bullish Med Overbought
XLB Bullish Med Consolidating gains; at resistance
XLV  Bullish Low Attactive entry following pullback 
XLE Bullish Low Consolidated gains; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Strong uptrend
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry at support


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 5/5/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1331 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 5/19/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med Consolidating gains; overhead resistance
 SPY  Bullish Med

 Consolidating gains; resistance

 QQQ Bullish Med Consolidating gains, overhead resistance
 IWM Bullish Med At support; attractive entry
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Low Firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Attractive entry following consolidation
 TLT Bearish Hi Broke resistance near 122.
EEM Bullish Low Overbought


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med Strong trend; overbought
XLU Bullish Med Trading range
XLI  Bullish Med Overhead resistance
XLB Bullish Med Consolidating gains; at resistance
XLV  Bullish Low Attactive entry following pullback 
XLE Bullish Low Consolidated gains; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Strong uptrend
XLY Bullish Hi At resistance
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry at support


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 5/5/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1332 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 5/12/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Low Consolidating gains; attractive entry
 SPY  Bullish Low

 Consolidating gains; overbought

 QQQ Bullish Med Pushing to new highs; overbought
 IWM Bullish Med Trading range
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Modest retracement; attractive entry
 VGK Bullish Low Firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Attractive entry following consolidation
 TLT Bearish Hi Broke resistance near 122.
EEM Bullish Low Overbought


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; overbought
XLU Bullish Med Trading range
XLI  Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLB Bullish Low consolidating gains; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Low Firm uptrend; attactive entry following pullback 
XLE Bullish Low Consolidated gains; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Strong uptrend
XLY Bullish Hi Bullish breakout; nearing overbought
XLF  Bullish Low Attractive entry


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 5/5/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1404 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 5/5/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Low Consolidating gains; attractive entry
 SPY  Bullish Low

 Consolidating gains; attractive entry

 QQQ Bullish Med Pushing to new highs
 IWM Bullish Med Trading range
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Modest retracement; attractive entry
 VGK Bullish Low Firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Attractive entry following consolidation
 TLT Bearish Hi Broke resistance near 122.
EEM Bullish Low Attractive entry


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; nearing overbought
XLU Bullish Med Backed off resistance at 53; trading range
XLI  Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Low Firm uptrend; attactive entry following pullback 
XLE Bullish Low Consolidated gains; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Strong uptrend
XLY Bullish Hi Bullish breakout; nearing overbought
XLF  Bullish Low Near major support; attractive entry


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 5/5/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1423 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 4/28/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Low Consolidating gains; attractive entry
 SPY  Bullish Low

 Consolidating gains; attractive entry

 QQQ Bullish Med Pushing to new highs
 IWM Bullish Med Trading range
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Modest retracement; attractive entry
 VGK Bullish Low Firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Attractive entry following consolidation
 TLT Bearish Hi Broke resistance near 122.
EEM Bullish Low Attractive entry


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; nearing overbought
XLU Bullish Med Backed off resistance at 53; trading range
XLI  Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Low Firm uptrend; attactive entry following pullback 
XLE Bullish Low Consolidated gains; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Strong uptrend
XLY Bullish Hi Bullish breakout; nearing overbought
XLF  Bullish Low Near major support; attractive entry


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 4/21/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1359 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 4/21/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Low Consolidating gains; attractive entry
 SPY  Bullish Low

 Consolidating gains; attractive entry

 QQQ Bullish Med Pushing to new highs
 IWM Bullish Med Trading range
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Hi Settled back from resistance near 123
 VGK Bullish Low Firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Attractive entry following consolidation
 TLT Bearish Hi Broke resistance near 122.
EEM Bullish Low Attractive entry


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; nearing overbought
XLU Bullish Med Backed off resistance at 53; trading range
XLI  Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Low Firm uptrend; attactive entry following pullback 
XLE Bullish Low Consolidated gains; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Strong uptrend
XLY Bullish Hi Bullish breakout; nearing overbought
XLF  Bullish Low Near major support; attractive entry


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 4/21/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1231 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 4/14/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med Consolidating gains; attractive entry
 SPY  Bullish Med

 Consolidating gains; attractive entry

 QQQ Bullish Med Consolidating gains; attractiv entry
 IWM Bullish Med Trading range
 DBA Bearish Med Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Hi Settling back from resistance; attractive entry
 VGK Bullish Low Positive momentum; firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Firm uptrend
 TLT Bearish Med Support near 116.
EEM Bullish Low Attractive entry at 36.50


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Overbought
XLU Bullish Med Backed off resistance at 51; trading range
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend forming; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Med Firm uptrend; attactive entry following pullback 
XLE Bullish Low Consolidated gains; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Nice rally; resumption of uptrend; a bit overbought
XLY Bullish Med Bullish breakout; overbought
XLF  Bullish Low Near major support; attractive entry


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 4/7/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
1359 Hits
0 Comments

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 4/7/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med Consolidating gains; attractive entry
 SPY  Bullish Med

 Consolidating gains;  attractive entry

 QQQ Bullish Med Consolidating gains; attractiv entry
 IWM Bullish Med Trading range
 DBA Bearish Med Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Hi Settling back from resistance; attractive entry
 VGK Bullish Low Positive momentum; firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Firm uptrend
 TLT Bearish Med Support near 116.
EEM Bullish Low Attractive entry at 36.50


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Overbought
XLU Bullish Med Backed off resistance at 51; trading range
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend forming; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Med Firm uptrend; attactive entry following pullback 
XLE Bullish Low Consolidated gains; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Nice rally; resumption of uptrend; a bit overbought
XLY Bullish Med Bullish breakout; overbought
XLF  Bullish Low Near major support; attractive entry


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 4/7/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      

 

1188 Hits
0 Comments