Next Update 4/13 market close
TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)
The short term TrendFlex Classic signal remains short.. The longer term Allegiance signal shifted back to a long position on 3/26. Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.
| TrendFlex Signal | Trend | Date | Return |
S&P 500 Return |
| S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). | ||||
| TrendFlex Classic CR | Short | 2/20/2018 | +2.90% | -2.80% |
| TrendFlex Allegiance CR | Long | 3/26/2018 | -0.70% | -0.70% |
| Historic Performance | ||||
TrendFlex Score
The TrendFlex Score remained flat at 1.97 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development but nearing an extreme where a bullish bounce may occur.
TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)
The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.
| TrendFlex Signal | Trend | Date | Return |
S&P 500 Return |
Score |
|
S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term). Score: Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0 |
|||||
| TrendFlex Classic TF | Bearish | 2/5/18 |
+.30% |
-.30% | 2.800 |
| TrendFlex Allegiance TF | Uptrend | 5/31/16 | 25.70% | 25.70% | 1.625 |
| Historic Performance | |||||
Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators
Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings. The key indicators include the following:
- CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
- Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
- LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading
When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extremes this week.
Portfolio Strategy Table
The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.
| Portfolio Strategies* |
| Reduce Longs |
| Sell Calls |
| Hedge Longs |
| Set Stops on Longs |
| Short Overbought Equities |
| Add to Longs |
| Sell Puts |
| Hedge or Reduce Shorts |
| Long Futures and Options |
*Red highlighted items are recommended strategies
