TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 1/12/2018

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change in the TrendFlex signals this week.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +7.30% +7.30%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +38.0% +38.0%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.24 to 1.14 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  It sits at an extremely low level, underscoring the risk to this level of equity prices. 

TFS01122018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

11.60%

11.60% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 32.7% 32.7% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator is at an extreme. Also shown below is VIX and Put/Call readings.  The Put/Call ratio is near an extreme, while VIX is neutral.

LQD01122018

 

 PC01122018

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 1/19/2018
Index & Sector ETF Signals - 1/12/2018 Update

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