TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 11/17/2017

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short-term TrendFlex Classic CR signal remains in SELL mode. There was no change to the longer-term TrendFlex Allegiance signal this week, which remains on a long-term buy.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Sell 11/9/17 +0.20% -0.20%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +27.7% +27.7%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.46 to 1.54 and remains above its three-week moving average, underscoring the risk to long positions at this level of the S&P 500.

TFS11172017

  TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

3.350%

3.30% 1.30
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 22.8% 22.8% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator had shown a sizeable gap versus its moving average, which anticipated the recent decline in the S&P 500.  The gap has narrowed a bit, and no longer represents an extreme reading.  

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

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