TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 11/10/2017


TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The TrendFlex Classic CR signal shifted to a SELL on 11/9/17. There was no change to the longer-term TrendFlex Allegiance signal this week.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Sell 11/9/17 +0.10% -0.10%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +28.0% +28.0%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.42 to 1.46 and remains above its three-week moving average, underscoring the risk to long positions at this level of the S&P 500.


 TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return


S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17


3.50% 1.25
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 23.0% 23.0% 1.50
Historic Performance          


Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals (new addition to our list; we removed the TED Spread indicator as it's effectiveness has diminished.
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. 

The LQD indicator still shows a sizeable gap versus its moving average.



The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies


TrendFlex CR Sell Signal Remains in Effect
Sell Signal TrendFlex Classic CR

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