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NOTE: TrendFlex Classic CR Sell Signal to be confirmed following 11/9/2017 market close.
TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)
There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.
S&P 500 Return
|S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt).|
|TrendFlex Classic CR||Long||9/14/17||+3.70%||+3.70%|
|TrendFlex Allegiance CR||Long||4/13/16||+28.2%||+28.2%|
The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.24 to 1.42 and closed above its three-week moving average, underscoring the risk to long positions at this level of the S&P 500.Given the strength of this rally, no more than a 5% correction would be a reasonable expectation.
TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)
The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.
S&P 500 Return
S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term). Score: Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0
|TrendFlex Classic TF||Uptrend||9/14/17||
|TrendFlex Allegiance TF||Uptrend||5/31/16||+23.2%||+23.2%||1.0|
Baseline Analytics Extremes
Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings. The key indicators include the following:
- CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
- Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals (new addition to our list; we removed the TED Spread indicator as it's effectiveness has diminished.
- LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading
When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.
Notice that the NYMO and the NYSI momentum indicators shifted to red (see red dotted lines) with their respective moving average cross-overs. The LQD indicator still shows a sizeable gap versus its moving average, however that has narrowed a bit as the moving average has also been falling.
The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.
|Set Stops on Longs|
|Short Overbought Equities|
|Add to Longs|
|Hedge or Reduce Shorts|
|Long Futures and Options|
*Red highlighted items are recommended strategies