TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 11/3/2017

 

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NOTE: TrendFlex Classic CR Sell Signal to be confirmed following 11/9/2017 market close.  

TFCCR11092017b

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 9/14/17 +3.70% +3.70%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +28.2% +28.2%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.24  to 1.42 and closed above its three-week moving average, underscoring the risk to long positions at this level of the S&P 500.Given the strength of this rally, no more than a 5% correction would be a reasonable expectation.

TFS11032017

 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 9/14/17

3.70%

 

+3.70% 1.0
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +23.2% +23.2% 1.0
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals (new addition to our list; we removed the TED Spread indicator as it's effectiveness has diminished.
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. 

Notice that the NYMO and the NYSI momentum indicators shifted to red (see red dotted lines) with their respective moving average cross-overs. The LQD indicator still shows a sizeable gap versus its moving average, however that has narrowed a bit as the moving average has also been falling.

 

 NYMO11032017

 SUM11032017

 LQD11032017

 

 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.    

 

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Pending Sell Signal TrendFlex Classic CR
TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 10/27/2017

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