TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/16/2018

 Next update will be week ending 3/16.

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal remains short..  The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/20/2018 -1.30% +1.30%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +36.30% +36.30%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased  from 1.87 to 1.69 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.    

TFS03162018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-3.70%

+3.90% 2.300
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 31.0% 31.0% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme. The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities.  There are no extreme readings following thie week's market close.   

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
441 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/2/2018

 Next update will be week ending 3/16.

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal shifted to short at the 2/20 market close.  The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/20/2018 +0.90% -0.90%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +33.30% +33.30%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased to 1.87 from 1.71 and closed above its three-week moving average.    

TFS03022018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-1.60%

+1.60% 2.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 28.10% 28.10% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme. The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities.  There are no extreme readings following thie week's market close. 

 

 

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
495 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/23/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal shifted to short at the 2/20 market close.  The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/20/2018 -1.10% +1.10%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +36.10% +36.10%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.74 to 1.71 and closed below its three-week moving average.    

TFS02232018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-3.60%

+3.70% 2.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 30.80% 30.80% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme. The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities.  There are no extreme readings following thie week's market close. 

 

 

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
531 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/16/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal shifted to long at the 2/15 market close.  The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 2/15/18 0.00% +0.00%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +35.30% +35.30%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.87 to 1.74 and remains above its three-week moving average.    

TFS02162018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF shifted to bearish at the 2/5 market close, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-3.00%

+3.10% 2.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 30.10% 30.10% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme. The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities.  There are no extreme readings following thie week's market close. 

 

 

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
553 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/9/2018

TrendFlex ScoreTrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal shifted to short at the 2/8 market close.  The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/8/18 -1.50% +1.50%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +29.70% +29.70%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.54 to 1.87 and remains above its three-week moving average.      

TFS02092018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF shifted to bearish at the 2/5 market close, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

1.10%

-1.10% 2.300
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 24.70% 24.70% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme. The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities.

 VIX02092018

 

LQD02092018

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
342 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/2/2018

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change in the TrendFlex signals this week (are you surprised)?  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +6.40% +6.40%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +36.80% +36.80%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from an extreme low of 1.12 to  1.54, closing above its three-week moving average.      

TFS02022018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

10.70%

10.70% 1.300
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 31.50% 31.50% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator hit an extreme at Friday's close. 

 VIX02022018

 

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
510 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 1/25/2018

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change in the TrendFlex signals this week (are you surprised)?  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +10.60% +10.60%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +42.30% +42.30%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.23 to 1.12, closing below its three-week moving average.  This is a score representative of extreme bullishness.    

TFS01252018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

15.10%

15.10% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 36.80% 36.80% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator remains at an extreme. All other indicators are neutral.

 

 LQD01252018

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
535 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 1/19/2018

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change in the TrendFlex signals this week.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +8.20% +8.20%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +39.20% +39.20%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.14 to 1.23 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.  

TFS01192018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

12.60%

12.60% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 33.80% 33.80% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator is at an extreme. All other indicators are neutral.

LQD01192018

 

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
619 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 1/12/2018

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change in the TrendFlex signals this week.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +7.30% +7.30%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +38.0% +38.0%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.24 to 1.14 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  It sits at an extremely low level, underscoring the risk to this level of equity prices. 

TFS01122018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

11.60%

11.60% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 32.7% 32.7% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator is at an extreme. Also shown below is VIX and Put/Call readings.  The Put/Call ratio is near an extreme, while VIX is neutral.

LQD01122018

 

 PC01122018

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
618 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 1/12/2018 Update

Note: ETF's signals are no longer updated here, and are now managed through the Market Trend portfolio of The Absolute Return, LLC. For more information about the ETF-based Market Trend Portfolio of The Absolute Return, LLC., click here.

TrendFlex signals for select index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. ETF's represent US and foreign equities, commodities, bonds and the US Dollar.

Major Index ETF's 

Symbol 

     Trend

Trend Change Risk 

Observations and Rationale
 SPY

 Bullish 

Hi

Increased risk of pullback

 DBA Bearish  Med Possibly forming a higher low; watch for major trend change
 GLD Bullish Med Trending up; attractive contrarian position and hedge; resistance at 130
 VGK Bullish   Hi Overbought; more attractive value vs. US stocks
 UUP Bearish High Nearing major support; oversold; rising rates positive
 TLT Bullish   Low Clean bounce from support near 123; likely trading range
EEM Bullish   Med Overbought

Select Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi New high; overbought
XLU Bearish Low Rotation out of rate-sensitive stocks
XLI  Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback; support near 72.50
XLB Bullish Hi Overbought
XLV  Bullish Hi Overbought; support near 84
XLE Bullish Med Closing in on resistance newar 75
XLP  Bullish Med Trading range
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought; support near 101
XLF  Bullish Med Overbought; but macro trends favor sector

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
XBI SPDR Biotech ETF bounces at support after modest correction 82.28 12/7/17
PFF Long basing pattern; closed above 50-day moving avg; 5.97% yield 38.13 11/18/17
RSX Basing at 50-day moving average; attractive entry 20.49 8/24/17
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
Continue reading
595 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 1/5/2018

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change in the TrendFlex signals this week.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +5.60% +5.60%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +35.8% +35.8%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.35 to 1.24 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.

TFS01052018b

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

9.90%

9.90% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 30.6% 30.6% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator is at an extreme. 

LQD01052018

 

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
365 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 1/5/2018 Update

Note: Next update following the market close of 1/5/2018.

TrendFlex signals for select index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. ETF's represent US and foreign equities, commodities, bonds and the US Dollar.

Major Index ETF's 

Symbol 

     Trend

Trend Change Risk 

Observations and Rationale
 SPY

 Bullish 

Hi

Increased risk of pullback

 DBA Bearish  Low Correcting following short-term rally
 GLD Bullish Med Trending up; attractive contrarian position and hedge; resistance at 130
 VGK Bullish   Hi Overbought; more attractive value vs. US stocks
 UUP Bearish High Nearing major support; oversold; rising rates positive
 TLT Bullish   Med Trading range; resistance 128 support 122-123
EEM Bullish   Med Overbought

Select Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi New high; overbought
XLU Bearish Low Rotation out of rate-sensitive stocks
XLI  Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback; support near 72.50
XLB Bullish Hi Overbought
XLV  Bullish Hi Overbought; support near 84
XLE Bullish Med Approaching resistance newar 75
XLP  Bullish Med Trading range
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought; support near 99
XLF  Bullish Med Overbought; but macro trends favor sector

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
XBI SPDR Biotech ETF bounces at support after modest correction 82.28 12/7/17
PFF Long basing pattern; closed above 50-day moving avg; 5.97% yield 38.13 11/18/17
RSX Basing at 50-day moving average; attractive entry 20.49 8/24/17
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
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695 Hits

LQD Gap Indicator Supports Hedging Long Stock Positions

Our gap indicator showing the divergence between a ratio of LQD/SPX and its moving average, has expanded further below the moving average line.  See the chart below.

LQD010318

Such gaps tend to proceed a bit of profit taking in the S&P 500 (see the red dotted lines).  Interesting to note also the green dotted lines, whereby the gap is recovered (or there is a gap ABOVE the moving average), signaling a good time to be long.

Today's reading suggests that hedging long positions is in order.

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742 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 12/22/2017

 Next Update will be after the market close of 1/5/18

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change in the TrendFlex signals this week.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +3.30% +3.30%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +32.9% +32.9%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.30 to 1.20 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.

 

 TFS12222017

  TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

7.50%

7.50% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 27.8% 27.8% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator is at an extreme. 

LQD12222017

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
582 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 12/15/2017

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change in the TrendFlex signals this week.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +3.00% +3.00%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +32.5% +32.5%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.39 to 1.30 and closed  below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.

 

TFS12152017

 

  TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

7.20%

7.20% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 27.4% 27.4% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extreme indicator readings (surprisingly) this week.  

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
537 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 12/15/2017 Update

Note: Next update following the market close of 1/5/2018.

TrendFlex signals for select index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. ETF's represent US and foreign equities, commodities, bonds and the US Dollar.

Major Index ETF's 

Symbol 

     Trend

Trend Change Risk 

Observations and Rationale
 SPY

 Bullish 

Hi

Increased risk of pullback

 DBA Bearish  Low New lows' attempted bottoming action appears unconvincing
 GLD Bullish Low Trending up; attractive contrarian position and hedge
 VGK Bullish   Hi Attractive entry during basing pattern; nice value vs. US stocks
 UUP Bearish High Attemtin to resume uptrend; breakout above 24.80 sets bullish trend
 TLT Bullish   Med Meeting up with resistance near 128
EEM Bullish   Med Basing pattern; attractive entry near 45

Select Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi New high
XLU Bullish Low Attractive entry near 55
XLI  Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback; support near 72
XLB Bullish Med Backing off from resistance near 60
XLV  Bullish Med Backing off from resistance near 84; attractive entry 81-82
XLE Bullish Low Firming uptrend, support at 67
XLP  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Strong breakout; macro trend favor financials; backing off from overbought

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
XBI SPDR Biotech ETF bounces at support after modest correction 82.28 12/7/17
PFF Long basing pattern; closed above 50-day moving avg; 5.97% yield 38.13 11/18/17
RSX Basing at 50-day moving average; attractive entry 20.49 8/24/17
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
Continue reading
596 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 12/8/2017

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change in the TrendFlex signals this week.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +2.10% +2.10%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +31.3% +31.3%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.38 to 1.39 and closed slightly above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.

TFS12082017

 

  TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

6.20%

6.20% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 26.3% 26.3% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator shows a sizeable gap versus its moving average: 

LQD12082017 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
570 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 12/1/2017

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short-term TrendFlex Classic CR signal shifted to BUY mode at the market close on 11/22, as the 11/9 SELL signal was rather short-lived  There was no change in the TrendFlex signals thsi week.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +1.70% +1.70%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +30.9% +30.9%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.43  to 1.38 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.

TFS12012017

  TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

5.90%

5.90% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 25.8% 25.8% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator shows a sizeable gap versus its moving average: 

LQD12012017  

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
736 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 12/1/2017 Update

Note: Next update following the market close of 12/15/2017.

TrendFlex signals for select index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. ETF's represent US and foreign equities, commodities, bonds and the US Dollar.

Major Index ETF's 

Symbol 

     Trend

Trend Change Risk 

Observations and Rationale
 SPY

 Bullish 

Hi

Increased risk of continued pullback

 DBA Bearish  Low Attempted bottoming action appears unconvincing
 GLD Bullish Low Trending up; attractive contrarian position and hedge
 VGK Bullish   Hi Attractive US alternative' holding to 50-day 
 UUP Bearish High Correcting from recent rally; 50 day moving avg. resistance. Breakout above 24.80 sets bullish trend
 TLT Bullish   Med Attractive entry point; resistance near 128
EEM Bullish   Med Basing pattern; attractive entry near 45

Select Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Volatile; attractive entry near 61.
XLU Bullish Low Potential topping; resistance near 57.
XLI  Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback; support near 71
XLB Bullish Low Possible double top; resistance naer 60
XLV  Bullish Med Correcting; Attractive entry near 80
XLE Bullish Low Firming uptrend, support at 67
XLP  Bullish Hi Resistance near 67; topping pattern
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Strong breakout; macro trend favor financials; nearing poverbought

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
XBI SPDR Biotech ETF bounces at support after modest correction 82.28 12/7/17
PFF Long basing pattern; closed above 50-day moving avg; 5.97% yield 38.13 11/18/17
RSX Basing at 50-day moving average; attractive entry 20.49 8/24/17
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
Continue reading
817 Hits

Unwinding of Tech (and Re-winding of Financials)

Today there was quite a reversal in financial stocks at the "expense" of technology.  The chart below plots a ratio of the XLF Finance SPDR vs. the XLK Technology SPDR.  Note today's surge:

xlfxlk

What is interesting is the "fits and starts" seen over the plotted timeframe since April.  This leads us to assess that what we saw today was merely a reversion to the mean for tech, and a resumption of the uptrend (along with the broader market) for financials.

Note the smaller charts below: XLK (Tech) is settling near its 50-day moving average (not there yet so some more potential downside in store). Financials (XLF), with their strong surge moves their index back to the "up" trendline.

So in our view, just a bit of sector rotation unwiding the excesses we have seen in tech, with laggard financials catching up.  

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642 Hits