Index & Sector ETF Signals - 5/12/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Low Consolidating gains; attractive entry
 SPY  Bullish Low

 Consolidating gains; overbought

 QQQ Bullish Med Pushing to new highs; overbought
 IWM Bullish Med Trading range
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Modest retracement; attractive entry
 VGK Bullish Low Firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Attractive entry following consolidation
 TLT Bearish Hi Broke resistance near 122.
EEM Bullish Low Overbought


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; overbought
XLU Bullish Med Trading range
XLI  Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLB Bullish Low consolidating gains; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Low Firm uptrend; attactive entry following pullback 
XLE Bullish Low Consolidated gains; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Strong uptrend
XLY Bullish Hi Bullish breakout; nearing overbought
XLF  Bullish Low Attractive entry


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 5/5/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
2144 Hits

Dow Theory Divergence - Short Term Risk to Equities?

Note the divergence between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, reaching to new highs, and the lagging Transports. Another signal to hedge longs at this time.

dow

Continue reading
757 Hits

Extremes Suggesting a Hedge is in Order

Two measures we follow to spot extremes in equities are flashing red, suggesting time to put on a hedge.

First, the VIX and Equity Put/Call Ratio are close to approaching extreme levels that in the past have presaged a decline in equities:

Vix

Secondly, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator is begining to shift to a negative moving average cross.  Note the dotted lines (green bullish red bearish) and the slower-to-confirm solid lines, below:

nymo

Continue reading
918 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 5/5/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 +1.8% +1.8%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +18.8% +18.8%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.52 to 1.50 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.

TFS05052017 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    Both Classic and Allegiance are strongly bullish.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 +12.1% +12.1% 1.000
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +14.2% +14.2% 1.000
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  There are no extremes this week. Importantly, VIX and the Put/Call ratio do not show a bullish extreme (which would trigger aggressive hedging of long positions).  

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
943 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 5/5/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Low Consolidating gains; attractive entry
 SPY  Bullish Low

 Consolidating gains; attractive entry

 QQQ Bullish Med Pushing to new highs
 IWM Bullish Med Trading range
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Modest retracement; attractive entry
 VGK Bullish Low Firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Attractive entry following consolidation
 TLT Bearish Hi Broke resistance near 122.
EEM Bullish Low Attractive entry


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; nearing overbought
XLU Bullish Med Backed off resistance at 53; trading range
XLI  Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Low Firm uptrend; attactive entry following pullback 
XLE Bullish Low Consolidated gains; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Strong uptrend
XLY Bullish Hi Bullish breakout; nearing overbought
XLF  Bullish Low Near major support; attractive entry


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 5/5/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1759 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 4/28/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 +1.2% +1.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +18.1% +18.1%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased 1.57 to 1.52 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.

TFS04282017 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 +11.4% +11.4% 1.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +13.5% +13.5% 1.125
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  There are no extremes this week, as all indicators are at neutral readings. 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.  A short position in an S&P 500 e-mini future contract, for example, is one strategy to help hedge long positions.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
888 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 4/28/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Low Consolidating gains; attractive entry
 SPY  Bullish Low

 Consolidating gains; attractive entry

 QQQ Bullish Med Pushing to new highs
 IWM Bullish Med Trading range
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Modest retracement; attractive entry
 VGK Bullish Low Firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Attractive entry following consolidation
 TLT Bearish Hi Broke resistance near 122.
EEM Bullish Low Attractive entry


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; nearing overbought
XLU Bullish Med Backed off resistance at 53; trading range
XLI  Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Low Firm uptrend; attactive entry following pullback 
XLE Bullish Low Consolidated gains; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Strong uptrend
XLY Bullish Hi Bullish breakout; nearing overbought
XLF  Bullish Low Near major support; attractive entry


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 4/21/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1803 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 4/21/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 -0.3% -0.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +16.3% +16.3%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.61 to 1.57 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.

TFS04212017 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.   Modest improvements in the scores this week suggest a potential breakout from the recent trading range. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 +9.8% +9.8% 1.900
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +11.8% +11.8% 1.125
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  There are no extremes this week, as all indicators are at neutral readings. 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.  A short position in an S&P 500 e-mini future contract, for example, is one strategy to help hedge long positions.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
1031 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 4/14/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

there was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 -1.2% -1.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +15.3% +15.3%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased to 1.61 and remains slightly above its three-week moving average.  

TFS04142017 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     The Classic signal remains near a neutral score.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 +8.9% +8.9% 2.10
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +10.9% +10.9% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, the VIX reading hit an extreme (suggesting a potential bounce in equities).  The LQD chart shows a bearish shift above its moving average.

VIX04142017 

LQD04142017

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.  A short position in an S&P 500 e-mini future contract, for example, is one strategy to help hedge long positions.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
954 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 4/14/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med Consolidating gains; attractive entry
 SPY  Bullish Med

 Consolidating gains; attractive entry

 QQQ Bullish Med Consolidating gains; attractiv entry
 IWM Bullish Med Trading range
 DBA Bearish Med Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Hi Settling back from resistance; attractive entry
 VGK Bullish Low Positive momentum; firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Firm uptrend
 TLT Bearish Med Support near 116.
EEM Bullish Low Attractive entry at 36.50


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Overbought
XLU Bullish Med Backed off resistance at 51; trading range
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend forming; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Med Firm uptrend; attactive entry following pullback 
XLE Bullish Low Consolidated gains; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Nice rally; resumption of uptrend; a bit overbought
XLY Bullish Med Bullish breakout; overbought
XLF  Bullish Low Near major support; attractive entry


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 4/7/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1617 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 4/21/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Low Consolidating gains; attractive entry
 SPY  Bullish Low

 Consolidating gains; attractive entry

 QQQ Bullish Med Pushing to new highs
 IWM Bullish Med Trading range
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Hi Settled back from resistance near 123
 VGK Bullish Low Firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Attractive entry following consolidation
 TLT Bearish Hi Broke resistance near 122.
EEM Bullish Low Attractive entry


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; nearing overbought
XLU Bullish Med Backed off resistance at 53; trading range
XLI  Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Low Firm uptrend; attactive entry following pullback 
XLE Bullish Low Consolidated gains; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Strong uptrend
XLY Bullish Hi Bullish breakout; nearing overbought
XLF  Bullish Low Near major support; attractive entry


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 4/21/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1479 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 4/7/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

there was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.  TrendFlex Classic CR was rather volatile but ended bullish for the week.   

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 +0.0% -0.0%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +16.7% +16.7%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score remained unchanged at 1.58 and remains slightly above its three-week moving average.  

TFS04072017 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     The Classic signal remains near a neutral score.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 +10.1% +10.1% 1.70
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +12.2% +12.2% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, there are no extreme readings in the Extremes technical indicators charts. 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.  A short position in an S&P 500 e-mini future contract, for example, is one strategy to help hedge long positions.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
933 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 4/7/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med Consolidating gains; attractive entry
 SPY  Bullish Med

 Consolidating gains;  attractive entry

 QQQ Bullish Med Consolidating gains; attractiv entry
 IWM Bullish Med Trading range
 DBA Bearish Med Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Hi Settling back from resistance; attractive entry
 VGK Bullish Low Positive momentum; firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Firm uptrend
 TLT Bearish Med Support near 116.
EEM Bullish Low Attractive entry at 36.50


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Overbought
XLU Bullish Med Backed off resistance at 51; trading range
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend forming; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Med Firm uptrend; attactive entry following pullback 
XLE Bullish Low Consolidated gains; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Nice rally; resumption of uptrend; a bit overbought
XLY Bullish Med Bullish breakout; overbought
XLF  Bullish Low Near major support; attractive entry


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 4/7/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      

 

Continue reading
1412 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/31/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR signal shifted to Buy at the 3/28 market close (opening trade price at 3/29 market open). The short trade gained 0.4%. The longer-term Allegiance signal remains Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 +0.3% -0.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +17.0% +17.0%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased to 1.58 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.  

TFS03312017 

TrendFlex rlowing Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     The Classic signal remains near a neutral score.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 +10.4% +10.4% 1.70
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +12.5% +12.5% 1.25
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, there are no extreme readings in the Extremes technical indicators charts. 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.  A short position in an S&P 500 e-mini future contract, for example, is one strategy to help hedge long positions.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
915 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 3/31/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi Consolidating gains; consider entry near 205
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 Consolidating gains;  long entry near 226

 QQQ Bullish Hi Overbought; entry near 128
 IWM Bullish Med At major support; Look for entry near 133
 DBA Bearish Med Setback from forming from long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Hi Settling back from resistance; attractive entry
 VGK Bullish Low Positive momentum; firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Sitting at major support; attractive entry
 TLT Bearish Med Support near 116.
EEM Bullish Low Attractive entry at 36.50


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Overbought
XLU Bullish Med Backed off resistance at 51; possible trading range
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend forming; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Med Nice breakout; firm uptrend; breaking resistance 
XLE Bullish Low 13% correction from recent high; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Nice rally; resumption of uptrend; a bit overbought
XLY Bullish Med Bullish breakout; overbought
XLF  Bullish Low Near major support; attractive entry


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 2/24/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1645 Hits

Short-term Potential Buy Setup

Market close update: The TrendFlex Classic CR signal has shifted to a BUY.

TrendFlex Classic CR is setting up for a potential buy at today's close.  See the chart below:

TFCCR03282017

Continue reading
727 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/24/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

3/28/17 Update:

The TrendFlex Classic CR signal shifted to a BUY at today's close.

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR signal remains at a Sell.  The longer-term Allegiance signal remains Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 3/09/17 +0.9% -0.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +16.1% +16.1%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score remained unchanged at 1.55, sitting above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.  

TFS03242017 

TrendFlex rlowing Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     The Classic signal is nearing a neutral score.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 +9.6% +9.6% 1.70
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +11.6% +11.6% 1.25
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, the LQD indicator moved from an extreme to a bearish position above its moving average (see bottom portion of chart below).

LQD03242017  

VIX and Put/Call bolted sharply above their respective moving averages, a sign that the short term weakness in equities may reverse.  However, they are not at extreme readings which would presage a strong rally.

VIX03252017

 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.  A short position in an S&P 500 e-mini future contract, for example, is one strategy to help hedge long positions.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
977 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/17/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR signal remains at a Sell.  The longer-term Allegiance signal remains Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 3/09/17 -0.6% +0.6%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +17.8% +17.8%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score climbed from 1.44 to 1.55 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.  

TFS03172017 

TrendFlex rlowing Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 11.2% 11.2% 1.10
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 13.2 13.2% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  This week, the LQD indicator continues to remain at an extreme, expanding the gap below its moving average.

LQD03102017  

TED closed in on an extreme (chart below), which could suggest a rebound soon.  As we hone in on the timing of its signals, the TED red zones can persist during a short-term downtrend.  We would look for a shift back up through the "0" line on the oscillator indicator (bottom of chart) to suggest that a pullback in the S&P500 has ended. VIX and Put/Call are neutral (chart not presented).

ted03102017

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.  A short position in an S&P 500 e-mini future contract, for example, is one strategy to help hedge long positions.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
1022 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 3/17/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi Overbought; consider entry near 205
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 Overbought; long entry near 225

 QQQ Bullish Hi Overbought; entry near 128
 IWM Bullish Med Look for entry near 133
 DBA Bearish Med Setback from forming from long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Hi Settling back from resistance; attractive entry
 VGK Bullish Low Positive momentum; firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Med Trading range but looking healthy
 TLT Bearish Med Support near 116.
EEM Bullish Low Attractive entry at 36.50


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Overbought
XLU Bullish Med Backed off resistance at 51; possible trading range
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend forming; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Med Nice breakout; firm uptrend; breaking resistance 
XLE Bullish Low Attractive entry following consolidation 
XLP  Bullish Med Nice rally; resumption of uptrend; a bit overbought
XLY Bullish Med Bullish breakout; overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 2/24/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1451 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 3/24/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi Consolidating gains; consider entry near 205
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 Consolidating gains;  long entry near 226

 QQQ Bullish Hi Overbought; entry near 128
 IWM Bullish Med At major support; Look for entry near 133
 DBA Bearish Med Setback from forming from long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Hi Settling back from resistance; attractive entry
 VGK Bullish Low Positive momentum; firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Sitting at major support; attractive entry
 TLT Bearish Med Support near 116.
EEM Bullish Low Attractive entry at 36.50


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Overbought
XLU Bullish Med Backed off resistance at 51; possible trading range
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Low Strong bullish trend forming; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Med Nice breakout; firm uptrend; breaking resistance 
XLE Bullish Low 13% correction from recent high; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Nice rally; resumption of uptrend; a bit overbought
XLY Bullish Med Bullish breakout; overbought
XLF  Bullish Low Near major support; attractive entry


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 2/24/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1448 Hits