TrendFlex Classic Remains on Sell Signal

As can be seen by the chart below, the TrendFlex Classic signal remains bearish.  Note the sharpness of the decline vs. its moving average.  The sell signal of 5/22 remains intact.  Hedge positions remain in place for longs.

 

Trendflex061918

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3 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 6/8/2018

 Next Update: Week ending 6/22.

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term and long term TrendFlex Classic signals are short. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 5/22/2018 -0.40% +0.40%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Short 5/212018 -0.10% +0.10%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score is at 1.58 and is slightly above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. 

TFS06082018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance are in uptrend mode.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 5/4/18

+2.70%

+2.70% 1.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +30.20% +30.20% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extreme readings this week. 

  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

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27 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 6/1/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term and long term TrendFlex Classic signals are short. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 5/22/2018 -0.40% +0.40%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Short 5/212018 -0.10% +0.10%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score is at 1.59 and is slightly above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. 

 TFS06012018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance are in uptrend mode.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 5/4/18

+2.70%

+2.70% 1.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +30.20% +30.20% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extreme readings this week. 

  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
37 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 5/18/2018

 Next Update: Week ending 6/1.

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term and long term TrendFlex Classic signals are long. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 5/10/2018 -0.40% -0.40%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 5/4/2018 +1.90% +1.90%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score is at 1.52 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

 TFS05182018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 2/5/18

+1.90%

+1.90% 1.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +29.20% +29.20% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extreme readings this week. 

  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
45 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 5/11/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term and long term TrendFlex Classic signals are long. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 5/10/2018 +0.20% +0.20%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 5/4/2018 +2.40% +2.40%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score is at 1.65 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

 TFS05112018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 2/5/18

+2.40%

+2.40% 1.700
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +29.90% +29.90% 1.125
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. VIX is showing an extreme (complacency) but may have a while at these levels befire a trend shift occurs.

VIX05112018  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
77 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 4/27/2018

 Next Update: Market close week ending 5/11/18.

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal shifted to short on 4/18. The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 4/18/2018 +1.50% -1.40%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 3/26/2018 +0.40% +040%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score is unchanged at 1.69 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

 TFS04272018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-.80%

+.80% 2.400
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 27.10% 27.10% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extremes this week.  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
77 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 4/13/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal shifted to long on 4/5. The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 4/05/2018 -0.20% -0.20%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 3/26/2018 -0.10% -0.10%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score is at 1.87 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

 TFS04132018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-.30%

+.30% 2.600
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 26.50% 26.50% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extremes this week.  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
91 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/30/2018

Next Update 4/13 market close

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal remains short.. The longer term Allegiance signal shifted back to a long position on 3/26.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/20/2018 +2.90% -2.80%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 3/26/2018 -0.70% -0.70%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score remained flat at 1.97 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development but nearing an extreme where a bullish bounce may occur.

 TFS03302018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

+.30%

-.30% 2.800
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 25.70% 25.70% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extremes this week.  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
154 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/23/2018

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal remains short.. The longer term Allegiance signal shifted to a short position also, that date is marked at the market close of 3/14.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/20/2018 +4.90% -4.70%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Short 3/14/2018 +6.10% -5.70%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased  from 1.67 to 1.91 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.    

TFS03232018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

+2.30%

-2.30% 2.400
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 23.20% 23.20% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme (especially the Put/Call ratio). The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities. 

vix03232018  

 

lqd03232018

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
185 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/16/2018

 Next update will be week ending 3/16.

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal remains short..  The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/20/2018 -1.30% +1.30%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +36.30% +36.30%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased  from 1.87 to 1.69 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.    

TFS03162018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-3.70%

+3.90% 2.300
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 31.0% 31.0% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme. The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities.  There are no extreme readings following thie week's market close.   

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
188 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/2/2018

 Next update will be week ending 3/16.

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal shifted to short at the 2/20 market close.  The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/20/2018 +0.90% -0.90%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +33.30% +33.30%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased to 1.87 from 1.71 and closed above its three-week moving average.    

TFS03022018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-1.60%

+1.60% 2.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 28.10% 28.10% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme. The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities.  There are no extreme readings following thie week's market close. 

 

 

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
249 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/23/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal shifted to short at the 2/20 market close.  The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/20/2018 -1.10% +1.10%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +36.10% +36.10%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.74 to 1.71 and closed below its three-week moving average.    

TFS02232018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-3.60%

+3.70% 2.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 30.80% 30.80% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme. The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities.  There are no extreme readings following thie week's market close. 

 

 

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
235 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/16/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal shifted to long at the 2/15 market close.  The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 2/15/18 0.00% +0.00%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +35.30% +35.30%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.87 to 1.74 and remains above its three-week moving average.    

TFS02162018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF shifted to bearish at the 2/5 market close, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-3.00%

+3.10% 2.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 30.10% 30.10% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme. The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities.  There are no extreme readings following thie week's market close. 

 

 

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
286 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/9/2018

TrendFlex ScoreTrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal shifted to short at the 2/8 market close.  The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/8/18 -1.50% +1.50%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +29.70% +29.70%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.54 to 1.87 and remains above its three-week moving average.      

TFS02092018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF shifted to bearish at the 2/5 market close, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

1.10%

-1.10% 2.300
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 24.70% 24.70% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme. The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities.

 VIX02092018

 

LQD02092018

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
204 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/2/2018

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change in the TrendFlex signals this week (are you surprised)?  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +6.40% +6.40%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +36.80% +36.80%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from an extreme low of 1.12 to  1.54, closing above its three-week moving average.      

TFS02022018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

10.70%

10.70% 1.300
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 31.50% 31.50% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator hit an extreme at Friday's close. 

 VIX02022018

 

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
310 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 1/25/2018

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change in the TrendFlex signals this week (are you surprised)?  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +10.60% +10.60%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +42.30% +42.30%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.23 to 1.12, closing below its three-week moving average.  This is a score representative of extreme bullishness.    

TFS01252018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

15.10%

15.10% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 36.80% 36.80% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator remains at an extreme. All other indicators are neutral.

 

 LQD01252018

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
321 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 1/19/2018

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change in the TrendFlex signals this week.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +8.20% +8.20%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +39.20% +39.20%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.14 to 1.23 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.  

TFS01192018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

12.60%

12.60% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 33.80% 33.80% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator is at an extreme. All other indicators are neutral.

LQD01192018

 

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
351 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 1/12/2018

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change in the TrendFlex signals this week.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +7.30% +7.30%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +38.0% +38.0%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.24 to 1.14 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  It sits at an extremely low level, underscoring the risk to this level of equity prices. 

TFS01122018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

11.60%

11.60% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 32.7% 32.7% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator is at an extreme. Also shown below is VIX and Put/Call readings.  The Put/Call ratio is near an extreme, while VIX is neutral.

LQD01122018

 

 PC01122018

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
400 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 1/12/2018 Update

Note: ETF's signals are no longer updated here, and are now managed through the Market Trend portfolio of The Absolute Return, LLC. For more information about the ETF-based Market Trend Portfolio of The Absolute Return, LLC., click here.

TrendFlex signals for select index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. ETF's represent US and foreign equities, commodities, bonds and the US Dollar.

Major Index ETF's 

Symbol 

     Trend

Trend Change Risk 

Observations and Rationale
 SPY

 Bullish 

Hi

Increased risk of pullback

 DBA Bearish  Med Possibly forming a higher low; watch for major trend change
 GLD Bullish Med Trending up; attractive contrarian position and hedge; resistance at 130
 VGK Bullish   Hi Overbought; more attractive value vs. US stocks
 UUP Bearish High Nearing major support; oversold; rising rates positive
 TLT Bullish   Low Clean bounce from support near 123; likely trading range
EEM Bullish   Med Overbought

Select Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi New high; overbought
XLU Bearish Low Rotation out of rate-sensitive stocks
XLI  Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback; support near 72.50
XLB Bullish Hi Overbought
XLV  Bullish Hi Overbought; support near 84
XLE Bullish Med Closing in on resistance newar 75
XLP  Bullish Med Trading range
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought; support near 101
XLF  Bullish Med Overbought; but macro trends favor sector

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
XBI SPDR Biotech ETF bounces at support after modest correction 82.28 12/7/17
PFF Long basing pattern; closed above 50-day moving avg; 5.97% yield 38.13 11/18/17
RSX Basing at 50-day moving average; attractive entry 20.49 8/24/17
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
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375 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 1/5/2018

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change in the TrendFlex signals this week.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +5.60% +5.60%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +35.8% +35.8%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.35 to 1.24 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.

TFS01052018b

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

9.90%

9.90% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 30.6% 30.6% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator is at an extreme. 

LQD01052018

 

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
260 Hits