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Short-term Negative Momentum Signals

At Baseline Analyitcs, we review about 30 key charts per day.  Two charts recently have flashed negative (bearish) indicators.

We track the momentum activity printed by the NYSE McClellan Oscillator. Note on the chart below, the vertical lines: green being bullish, red being bearish.  Note on our NYMO chart below, the solid red line on the right, which corresponded quite well with a "near peak" in the S&P 500 (pink line). Other bullish and bearish signals can be compared to recent levels of the S&P 500. 

NYMO07102017 

Our next chart is the % of stocks in the S&P 500 trading over their 50-day moving average.  We have recently seen a shift of that indicator below its 34-day exponential moving average.  Note the grren and red vertical lines and how they correspond with short-term peaks and troughs in the S&P 500.

 

50R07102017

 We utilize indicators such as these in order to decide whether to hedge equities in a positive or negative fashion.

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1323 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 7/7/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 +2.9% +2.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +20.1% +20.1
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.42 to 1.47 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. 

TFS07072017

 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend;  11/8/16 +13.3% +13.3% 1.70
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +15.5% +15.5% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extreme readings this week. 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
1246 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 6/30/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 +2.8% +2.8%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +20.0% +20.0
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.39 to 1.42 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. 

TFS06302017

 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend;  11/8/16 +13.3% +13.3% 1.70
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +15.4% +15.4% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extreme readings this week. 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
1160 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 6/30/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 New high, overbought

 QQQ Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 IWM Bullish Med Pushing toward resistance
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Med Working toward new high
 UUP Bullish Low Consolidating
 TLT Bullish Med Working on new uptrend; trading range more likely
EEM Bullish Med Pushing toward new high


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; overbought
XLU Bullish Hi Overbought
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Med Pushing toward high
XLV  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLE Bearish Med Looking for support
XLP  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry at support


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 6/2/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1876 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 7/7/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi Trading range; increased risk of pullback
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 Trading range; increased risk of pullback

 QQQ Bullish Hi Nice pullback; attractive entry
 IWM Bullish Med Pushing toward resistance
 DBA Bearish Low Recent surge as USD weakens, overhead resistance
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Low Working toward new high
 UUP Bullish Low Looking for support
 TLT Bullish Med Continued trading range
EEM Bullish Low Pushing toward new high; recent trading range


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med Atttractive entry
XLU Bullish Hi Threatening major support
XLI  Bullish Hi Trading range; increased risk of pullback
XLB Bullish Low Pushing toward high
XLV  Bullish Low Attractive entry
XLE Bearish Med Looking for support; possibly formed a higher low
XLP  Bullish Hi Threatening support
XLY Bullish Hi Trading range; increased risk of pullback
XLF  Bullish Hi New high; beware double top


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 7/9/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income                     
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1940 Hits

TRIN Extreme Suggests Selling is Over-Done

Looking at the intra-day TRIN reading, note the sharp drop into extreme territory. Extreme dips in the past have led to short-term recoveries in the S&P 500.  

 

TRIN062917

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866 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 6/23/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 +3.5% +3.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +20.8% +20.8
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.35 to 1.39 and closed slightly above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. 

 TFS06232017 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend;  11/8/16 +14.0% +14.0% 1.40
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +16.1% +16.1% 1.25
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extreme readings this week. 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
1151 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 6/23/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 New high, overbought

 QQQ Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 IWM Bullish Med Pushing toward resistance
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Med Working toward new high
 UUP Bullish Low Consolidating
 TLT Bullish Med Working on new uptrend; trading range more likely
EEM Bullish Med Pushing toward new high


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; overbought
XLU Bullish Hi Overbought
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Med Pushing toward high
XLV  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLE Bearish Med Looking for support
XLP  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry at support


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 6/2/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1829 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 6/16/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 +3.3% +3.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +20.5% +20.5
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.37 to 1.35 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

TFS06162017

 

 

 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend;  11/8/16 +13.8% +13.8% 1.20
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +15.9% +15.9% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extreme readings this week. 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
1100 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 6/162017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 New high, overbought

 QQQ Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 IWM Bullish Med Pusing toward resistance
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Med Working toward new high
 UUP Bullish Low Consolidating
 TLT Bullish Med Working on new uptrend; trading range more likely
EEM Bullish Med Pushing toward new high


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; overbought
XLU Bullish Hi Overbought
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Med Pushing toward high
XLV  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLE Bearish Med Looking for support
XLP  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry at support


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 6/2/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1809 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 6/9/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 +3.2% +3.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +20.4% +20.4
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.34 to 1.37 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

 TFS06092017

 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend;  11/8/16 +13.7% +13.7% 1.20
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +15.8% +15.8% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extreme readings this week. 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
1087 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 6/2/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 +3.5% +3.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +20.8% +20.8
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.42 to 1.34 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  The most recent low of 1.22 preceded a 50-point decline in the S&P500, suggesting the potential for a short-term setback from recent highs..  

TFS06022017

 

 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend;  11/8/16 +14.0% +14.0% 1.20
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +16.1% +16.1% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX reading is nearing an extreme reading (see chart below).  Put/Call remains neutral but is also nearing an extreme reading.  

VIX06022017

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
1083 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 6/2/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 New high, overbought

 QQQ Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 IWM Bullish Med Pusing toward resistance
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Med Working toward new high
 UUP Bullish Low Consolidating
 TLT Bullish Med Working on new uptrend; trading range more likely
EEM Bullish Med Pushing toward new high


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; overbought
XLU Bullish Hi Overbought
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Med Pushing toward high
XLV  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLE Bearish Med Looking for support
XLP  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry at support


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 6/2/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1680 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 6/9/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 SPY  Bullish Hi

 New high, overbought

 QQQ Bullish Hi New high; overbought
 IWM Bullish Med Pusing toward resistance
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Med Working toward new high
 UUP Bullish Low Consolidating
 TLT Bullish Med Working on new uptrend; trading range more likely
EEM Bullish Med Pushing toward new high


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Strong trend; overbought
XLU Bullish Hi Overbought
XLI  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLB Bullish Med Pushing toward high
XLV  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLE Bearish Med Looking for support
XLP  Bullish Hi Overbought
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry at support


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 6/2/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1800 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 5/26/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 +2.5% +2.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +19.6% +19.6%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.57 to 1.42 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.

TFS05262017

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend;  11/8/16 +12.9% +12.9% 1.20
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +15.0% +15.0% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX reading is nearing an extreme reading (see chart below).  It might not be a bad time to put on a short hedge.

VIX05262017 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
1099 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 5/19/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 +1.1% +1.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +18.0% +18.0%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.55 to 1.57 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.

TFS05192017

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    Classic is moving to cash at the market open on 5/22. Allegiance remains bullish.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend; Cash 5/22 11/8/16 +11.3% +11.3% 1.900
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +13.4% +13.4% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX reading achieved an extreme reading earlier this week, but has since turned neutral. There are no extremes this week. Importantly, VIX and the Put/Call ratio do not show a bullish extreme (which would trigger aggressive hedging of long positions).  

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
1066 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 5/19/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med Consolidating gains; overhead resistance
 SPY  Bullish Med

 Consolidating gains; resistance

 QQQ Bullish Med Consolidating gains, overhead resistance
 IWM Bullish Med At support; attractive entry
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Low Firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Attractive entry following consolidation
 TLT Bearish Hi Broke resistance near 122.
EEM Bullish Low Overbought


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med Strong trend; overbought
XLU Bullish Med Trading range
XLI  Bullish Med Overhead resistance
XLB Bullish Med Consolidating gains; at resistance
XLV  Bullish Low Attactive entry following pullback 
XLE Bullish Low Consolidated gains; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Strong uptrend
XLY Bullish Hi At resistance
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry at support


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 5/5/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1747 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 5/26/2017 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. 

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med New high; nearing overbought
 SPY  Bullish Med

 New high, nearing overbought

 QQQ Bullish Med New high; overbought
 IWM Bullish Med At support; attractive entry
 DBA Bearish Low Continues working on long term bottom
 GLD Bullish Low Attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish Low Firm uptrend; nice value
 UUP Bullish Low Attractive entry following consolidation
 TLT Bearish Hi Broke resistance near 122.
EEM Bullish Low Overbought


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Med Strong trend; overbought
XLU Bullish Med Trading range
XLI  Bullish Med Overbought
XLB Bullish Med Consolidating gains; at resistance
XLV  Bullish Low Attactive entry following pullback 
XLE Bullish Low Consolidated gains; attractive entry
XLP  Bullish Med Strong uptrend
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry at support


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 5/5/2017   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities            
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives         
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials        
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1652 Hits

Short Term Buy Opportunity Soon?

While the TrendFlex signals remain bullish, the VIX extreme has reached a level that suggests a bounce is in order. See the blue circle on the right. Based on support levels, we would look for another dip in the S&P 500 of 15-20 points to encourage long positions.

VIC0517

 

Continue reading
863 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 5/12/2017

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 3/28/17 +1.5% +1.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +18.4% +18.4%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.50 to 1.55 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.

TFS05122017 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    Both Classic and Allegiance are strongly bullish.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 11/8/16 +11.7% +11.7% 1.30
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +13.8% +13.8% 1.25
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX reading achieved an extreme reading earlier this week, but has since turned neutral. There are no extremes this week. Importantly, VIX and the Put/Call ratio do not show a bullish extreme (which would trigger aggressive hedging of long positions).  

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
1109 Hits