TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 11/25/2016

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains  Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +3.4% +3.4%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +9.6% +9.6%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score declined from 1.64 to 1.48, and settled below its three-week moving average.  New highs in the major equity indices helped drive the score lower this week.

TFS11252016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.  Both have settled on 1.0 scores, as bullish as you can get.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 3.4% 3.4% 1.0
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 5.4% 5.4% 1.0
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.

LQDGap112516

A large gap in the LQD/SPX ratio vs. its moving average suggests that the recent rally may need a breather. Likewise, the CBOE VIX reading has fallen well below its moving average (see top portion of chart below), although Put/Call is neutral.  The VIX extreme is worth watching, however it can meander at this low level for several days. 

VIX112516

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, especially with regards to recent market strength and positive seasonality.  Partial hedges to long positions may be in order though as we observe the two Extremes indicators noted above.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
667 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 11/25/16 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. The "Trend Risk" column characterizes the risk of a change in the trend. "Prior Signal" column is reset following each week's close.

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Med Strong breakout to highs
 SPY  Bullish Med Breakout to highs 
 QQQ Bullish Low Flat trading range; attempting to breakout
 IWM Bullish Low Strong breakout to highs; bullish for equities overall
 DBA Neutral Low Long base forming; potential double bottom bears watching
 GLD Bearish Med Nearing oversold levels but technically weak
 VGK Neutral Med Meandering near 44-45 support 
 UUP Bullish Low Clear uptrend but overbought
 TLT Bearish Hi Near major weekly support; positive divergence forming
EEM Bearish Low  Sharp selloff; avoid for now; nearing oversold

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Low  Attractive entry point
XLU Neutral Hi Oversold; look for recovery
XLI  Bullish Med New high
XLB Bullish Low Bullish breakout 
XLV  Bullish Low Attractive entry point 
XLE Bullish Low Attractive entry point 
XLP  Neutral Hi Oversold; look for recovery 
XLY Bullish Low  
XLF  Bullish Med Overbought 

 

 

ETF Wrapper Reports

Baseline Analytics searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software to identify technical patterns that suggest timely trading opportunities. Click on the wrapper   icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find ideal setups.  Date represents data from that day's market close.  Visit frequently, as this table is updated throughout the week.

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Bullish ETF's ETF's with a new buy signal and trading in an uptrend. Not overbought, actively-traded, price>$10. Excludes leveraged ETF's wrapper 11/7/16

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table of stock symbols represents ETF's that are either in bullish or bearish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points. Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Click on the stock symbol for the chart.  

ETF Technical Leaders 

Prime Technical Leaders represent companies with impressive fundamental financial criteria and a technically-attractive entry point.  Leaders are added as opportunities arise from our nightly screening.  Please note that this list is time-sensitive due to market volatility.

None at this time

Symbol Rationale Date Close Date Added
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day) 11/11/16  70.49 11/11/16 
          

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 11/18/2016   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities          
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps         ♦    

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials      ♦     
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1173 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 11/18/2016

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance signals remains  Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +2.0% +2.0%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +8.1% +8.1%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score remained unchanged at 1.64 and closed equal to its three-week moving average.  

TFS11182016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 2.0% 2.0% 1.300
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 3.9% 3.9% 1.125
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.

LQDGap111816

A large gap in the LQD/SPX ratio vs. its moving average suggests that the recent rally may need a breather. Likewise, the CBOE VIX reading has fallen well below its moving average (see top portion of chart below), although Put/Call is neutral.  The VIX extreme is worth watching, however it can meander at this low level for several days. 

VIX111816

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, especially with regards to recent market strength and positive seasonality.  Partial hedges to long positions may be in order though as we observe the two Extremes indicators noted above.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
647 Hits

Dow Theory Buy Signals Looking Promising

Check out the confirming uptrends in both the Dow Industrials and Transports.  Another sign of support for the uptrend.

 

DT1116

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991 Hits

Junk Bond Divergence - Implications for Equities?

In April 2015 we saw a break in the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF as it fell to its early 2016 lows.  As that happened, the S&P 500 see-sawed, mildly correcting and then failing to resume an uptrend until the JNK ETF resumed its uptrend.

We have seen confirmation (both in uptrends) since early 2016.  Recently, however, divergence has appeared as the JNK ETF recently pulled back from its highs.  The S&P 500 has been fighting toward new highs but is beginning to feel the resistance.  

This relationship bears watching should JNK continue to pull back. 

 

junk diverges

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1163 Hits

Spotting Extremes as Clues to a Market Rally (or Sell-Off)

Baseline Analytics was founded in 2005 with a vision to assemble a variety of indicators that could identify extremes in the stock market, and to profit from the shifts in market trend following the occurence of an extreme indicator reading.

Our TrendFlex subscribers now receive timely indicator extreme alerts.  We have categorized our key indicator extremes as follows:

  1. CBOE VIX Reading and CBOE Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.  Here are examples of charts depicting these extreme indicators and what they suggest will happen to the market trend.

CBOE VIX and CBOE 

Look for extreme readings in VIX and Put/Call versus a moving average of each indicator. Peaks and troughs in VIX and Put/Call offer strong indications of a short-term shift in the trend of the S&P 500.

CBOE11132016

TED Spread

Shifts in the TED Spread also help to spot extremes.  As can be seen in the chart below, an oscillator indicator at the bottom of the chart spots potential buy and sell opportunities in the S&P 500.

TED11132016 

LQD:S&P 500 Ratio GAP vs. Moving Average

Here is our basic Bond vs. Stock Market Indicator.  A large GAP in the ratio (see bottom portion of chart below) provides the extreme reading and opportunity to go long or short equities.

LQD Gap

Baseline Analytics subscribers receive updates on these indicators when they have reached extreme readings. These indicators also play a role in the TrendFlex Score, which represents a weighting of 12 key market trend indicators. Subscribers include Registered Investment Advisors, individual investors, and portfolio managers.

Subscribers most often use our indicators to hedge portfolios (one popular strategy is to short S&P 500 e-Mini futures when the CBOE VIX reading is at a trough compared to its moving average).

Visit our Premium Services page for information on our services.  Baseline Analytics is currently OPEN ACCESS, however our modest $79 annual fee will be re-introduced in the coming days (A 4-week Free Trial will be available).

 

Continue reading
1510 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 11/11/2016

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR signal shifted to Long at the market close of 11/8, as noted in our intra-week update. The longer-term Allegiance signal remains  Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/08/16 +1.2% +1.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +7.2% +7.2%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.83 to 1.64 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. This week we saw some market improvement in indicators that have lagged for a while: our Copper/US Bond ratio leaped above its 200-day moving average, and the SPX/US Bond ratio pushed to a new high. 

TFS11112016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF signal shifted from Cash to Long this week. The longer-term Allegiance signal remained in Uptrend. Both are strongly bullish with scores of 1.30 and 1.125, respectively.   

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 1.2% 1.2% 1.300
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 3.1% 3.1% 1.125
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX Reading
  2. CBOE Put/Call Ratio
  3. TED Spread
  4. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.

LQD Gap

A large gap in the LQD/SPX ratio vs. its moving average suggests that the recent rally may need a breather. 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish. Given recent market strength and positive seasonality, hedging long positions is less encouraging at this time.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
793 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 11/11/16 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. The "Trend Risk" column characterizes the risk of a change in the trend. "Prior Signal" column is reset following each week's close.

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Low Strong breakout to highs
 SPY  Bullish Low  
 QQQ Bullish Low Flat trading range; look for breakout
 IWM Bullish Low Strong breakout to highs
 DBA Bearish Low  
 GLD Bearish Med Nearing oversold levels
 VGK Neutral Med  
 UUP Bullish Low  
 TLT Bearish Hi Near major weekly support
EEM Bearish Low  Sharp selloff; avoid for now

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Low  Attractive entry point
XLU Neutral Hi Oversold 
XLI  Bullish Low  
XLB Bearish Low  
XLV  Bullish Low Attractive entry point 
XLE Bullish Low Attractive entry point 
XLP  Neutral Hi Oversold 
XLY Bullish Low  
XLF  Bullish Low Sharp jump; overbought 

 

 

ETF Wrapper Reports

Baseline Analytics searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software to identify technical patterns that suggest timely trading opportunities. Click on the wrapper   icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find ideal setups.  Date represents data from that day's market close.  Visit frequently, as this table is updated throughout the week.

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Bullish ETF's ETF's with a new buy signal and trading in an uptrend. Not overbought, actively-traded, price>$10. Excludes leveraged ETF's wrapper 11/7/16

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table of stock symbols represents ETF's that are either in bullish or bearish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points. Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Click on the stock symbol for the chart.  

ETF Technical Leaders 

Prime Technical Leaders represent companies with impressive fundamental financial criteria and a technically-attractive entry point.  Leaders are added as opportunities arise from our nightly screening.  Please note that this list is time-sensitive due to market volatility.

None at this time

Symbol Rationale Entry Date Added
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
        

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 11/5/2016   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities          
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps           

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials      ♦     
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1242 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 11/18/16 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. The "Trend Risk" column characterizes the risk of a change in the trend. "Prior Signal" column is reset following each week's close.

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
 DIA Bullish Low Strong breakout to highs
 SPY  Bullish Low  
 QQQ Bullish Low Flat trading range; look for breakout
 IWM Bullish Low Strong breakout to highs; bullish for equities overall
 DBA Neutral Low Long base forming; potential double bottom bears watching
 GLD Bearish Med Nearing oversold levels
 VGK Neutral Med  
 UUP Bullish Low Major breakout 
 TLT Bearish Hi Near major weekly support
EEM Bearish Low  Sharp selloff; avoid for now; nearing oversold

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Low  Attractive entry point
XLU Neutral Hi Oversold 
XLI  Bullish Low  
XLB Bullish Low Potential bullish breakout 
XLV  Bullish Low Attractive entry point 
XLE Bullish Low Attractive entry point 
XLP  Neutral Hi Oversold 
XLY Bullish Low  
XLF  Bullish Med Overbought 

 

 

ETF Wrapper Reports

Baseline Analytics searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software to identify technical patterns that suggest timely trading opportunities. Click on the wrapper   icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find ideal setups.  Date represents data from that day's market close.  Visit frequently, as this table is updated throughout the week.

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Bullish ETF's ETF's with a new buy signal and trading in an uptrend. Not overbought, actively-traded, price>$10. Excludes leveraged ETF's wrapper 11/7/16

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table of stock symbols represents ETF's that are either in bullish or bearish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points. Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Click on the stock symbol for the chart.  

ETF Technical Leaders 

Prime Technical Leaders represent companies with impressive fundamental financial criteria and a technically-attractive entry point.  Leaders are added as opportunities arise from our nightly screening.  Please note that this list is time-sensitive due to market volatility.

None at this time

Symbol Rationale Entry Date Added
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
        

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 11/18/2016   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities          
Fixed Income            ♦       
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps           

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials      ♦     
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
Continue reading
1166 Hits

A Bullish TED Spread Signal

We've shown this chart before, highlighting the Buy and Sell signals for the S&P 500.  Just when I thought the post-election rally was getting a bit extended, the TED Spread signal flashed a convincing Buy.

 

TED1110

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977 Hits

Monday 11/7 Market Rally Recap

A powerful 2.2% rally in the S&P 500 propelled the index off its 200-day moving average.  Volume was on the lighter side.  VIX settled back from its extreme fear reading and the Put/Call ratio remains at a high 1.22,

We hedged longs a bit in the mid-afternoon, considering the possibility that equities moved a bit too fast for our liking going into Election Day.  Let's see what transpires tomorrow.  Trading enthusiasts might want to daytrade S&P 500 e-Mini futures while election results are posted in the evening. 

BLA11072016

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1003 Hits

Encouraging Support and Contrarian Extremes

An update to yesterday's report:

The S&P 500 bounced perfectly off its 200-day moving average support, an encouraging sign for resumption of the uptrend.  VIX extreme hints at potential rebound in equities.  Stochastics are now oversold.

tf1104

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863 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 11/4/2016

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

11/10/2016 Intra-Week Update:

Markets sure can move fast!  TrendFlex Classic CR shifted to a Buy signal at the market close of 11/8/16.  We will belatedly note the opening price of 11/9 as the new signal timing.

TFCCR11102016

 

TrendFlex Classic CR signal shifted to Short at the market open on 10/31. The longer-term Allegiance signal remains  Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 10/31/16 +2.1% -2.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +3.3% +3.3%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.81 to 1.83 and remains above its three-week moving average. Despite the weakness in several momentum indicators, the TrendFlex Score has not shot upward much as two contrarian indicators, namely VIX and Put/Call, remain at elevated extremes (their score components are bullish). 

TFS11042016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

There are no changes to the TrendFlex trend-following signals this week.  TrendFlex Classic TF is slightly bearish at 2.30, however, we will keep that one in cash based on the TrendFlex Score holding its own.   

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 0.0% -3.4% 2.300
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 -0.7% -0.7% 1.625
Historic Performance          

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish albeit with some hedging suggested.  Given recent market volatility, hedging a long portfolio with e-Mini S&P 500 futures shorts may be a prudent short-term strategy.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

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Index & Sector ETF Signals - 11/4/16 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. The "Trend Risk" column characterizes the risk of a change in the trend. "Prior Signal" column is reset following each week's close.

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend  Date

Trend Change Risk

 DIA BULLISH  11/7/16 HI
 SPY  BULLISH 6/29/16 HI
 QQQ BULLISH 7/8/16 MED
 IWM  BULLISH  3/1/16 MED
 DBA BEARISH 7/8/16 MED
 GLD BEARISH 9/20/16 LOW
 VGK BEARISH 9/23/16 LOW
 UUP BULLISH 9/16/16 LOW
 TLT BULLISH  9/23/16 HI
EEM BULLISH 5/6/16 MED

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend  Date

Trend Change Risk

XLK BULLISH 6/29/16 LOW
XLU BULLISH 9/23/16  HI
XLI  BEARISH 11/4/16 LOW
XLB BEARISH 9/12/16 LOW
XLV  BEARISH 11/4/16 LOW
XLE  BULLISH 3/2/16 MED
XLP  BULLISH 9/30/16 HI
XLY BEARISH 11/4/16 LOW
XLF  BULLISH 7/13/16 LOW

 

 

ETF Wrapper Reports

Baseline Analytics searchable Excel files representing the results of proprietary screeners applied to MetaStock software to identify technical patterns that suggest timely trading opportunities. Click on the wrapper   icon in the table below to download the Excel report, which includes instructions to find ideal setups.  Date represents data from that day's market close.  Visit frequently, as this table is updated throughout the week.

Wrapper Name Description Wrapper Link Date
Bullish ETF's ETF's with a new buy signal and trading in an uptrend. Not overbought, actively-traded, price>$10. Excludes leveraged ETF's wrapper 11/7/16

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table of stock symbols represents ETF's that are either in bullish or bearish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points. Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Click on the stock symbol for the chart.  

ETF Technical Leaders 

Prime Technical Leaders represent companies with impressive fundamental financial criteria and a technically-attractive entry point.  Leaders are added as opportunities arise from our nightly screening.  Please note that this list is time-sensitive due to market volatility.

None at this time

Symbol Symbol & Chart Rationale Sector Ranking Entry Initial Target Stop Date Added
             
               
                

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website, and our ETF Signals analysis.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 11/5/2016   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities      ♦     
Fixed Income                 
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps        

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials      ♦     
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
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Trend Change Watch - Extremes Singing Their Tune

A quick update on several technical indicators suggests that a rally may be near.  See chart and commentary below.

tf1103

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Fear and Loathing in the VIX Camp

Watching two "fear" indicators, VIX and the Put/Call Ratio have reached extremes that in the past have preceded short-term rallies.  Note the peaks and troughs of the VIX and Put/Call readings and their correlation with shifts in the S&P 500.  Note VIX especially as it gaps higher or lower than its moving average.

BLAVix113

 

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873 Hits

A Jolt of Fear - Market Trend Change Soon?

The S&P 500 closed off its lows on Tuesday, November 1.  The index settled at major support levels which, if they continue to hold, could pressage another shift toward new highs.

During the tumultous session, our fear gauges hit extremes.  See the VIX and Put/Call (CPC) sections of the chart below.

SPX1122016

We like to see both of these "fear" indicators hit relative extreme levels in order to help confirm whether the market trend is about to shift.  Both closed at extremes on Tuesday.  Although stochastics are not quite oversold, we consider this extreme reading in VIX/PutCall and the ability of the S&P 500 to settle at support, as positive indicators for equities.

The U.S. election certainly throws a wrench in the assessment of market conditions, and hedging bets prior to Election Day has likely been driving recent volatility.

 

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 10/28/2016

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR signal closed below its moving average on Friday, 10/28.  The signal shifts to Short at the opening price of the S&P 500 on 10/31. The longer-term Allegiance signal remains  Long.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long (Short at 10/31 open) 9/23/16 -2.2% -2.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +5.3% +5.3%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.73 to 1.81 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. 

TFS10282016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

There are no changes to the TrendFlex trend-following signals this week.     

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Cash 9/26/16 0.0% -1.5% 2.100
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +1.3% +1.3% 1.625
Historic Performance          

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish albeit with some hedging suggested.  Given recent market volatility, hedging a long portfolio with e-Mini S&P 500 futures shorts may be a prudent short-term strategy.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

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760 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 10/28 Update

TrendFlex signals for the major index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. The "Trend Risk" column characterizes the risk of a change in the trend. "Prior Signal" column is reset following each week's close.

Major Index ETF's 

 Symbol  Trend  Date

Trend Change Risk

 DIA BULLISH  9/30/16 MED
 SPY  BULLISH 6/29/16 MED
 QQQ BULLISH 7/8/16 LOW
 IWM  BULLISH  3/1/16 MED
 DBA BEARISH 7/8/16 LOW
 GLD BEARISH 9/20/16 LOW
 VGK BEARISH 9/23/16 LOW
 UUP BULLISH 9/16/16 LOW
 TLT BULLISH  9/23/16 HI
EEM BULLISH 5/6/16 LOW

 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend  Date

Trend Change Risk

XLK BULLISH 6/29/16 LOW
XLU BULLISH 9/23/16  HI
XLI  BULLISH 9/30/16 MED
XLB BEARISH 9/12/16 LOW
XLV  BULLISH 9/25/16 HI
XLE  BULLISH 3/2/16 LOW
XLP  BULLISH 9/30/16 HI
XLY BULLISH 9/30/16 HI
XLF  BULLISH 7/13/16 LOW

 

 

Allocation Strategy is updated on a bi-weekly basis, and takes a longer-term view consistent with the TrendFlex Allegiance system. Allocations are based on a blend of macro-economic trends and technical analysis, and incorporate the insight of our Thought Leaders as expressed on the Baseline Analytics website.  Portfolio allocation corresponds to an investor profile of moderate risk and a 20-year investment horizon.  Updates to Asset Allocation may be issued more frequently depending on market conditions.

Asset Allocation Strategy - 11/4/2016   

Instrument 

Underweight

Neutral

Overweight

Equities      ♦     
Fixed Income                 
Alternatives      ♦      
Cash          

Equities

Style

Large Caps      
   
Mid Caps          
Small Caps        

Sector

Staples           
Discretionary           
Technology          
Utilities    
     
Industrials          
Healthcare      
   
Materials      ♦     
Financials          
Energy      
   
Regions     
US          
Eurozone          
China    
     
India          
Japan          
Emerging Asia          
EMEA          
Latin America          

Fixed Income

Investment Grade          
High Yield          
Developed Market          
Emerging Market          
Treasuries          
TIPS          
Municipal          

Alternatives

Commodities          
Absolute Return        
REITS      
Convertible Bonds      
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1241 Hits

New Month, New Dividends: Welcome November!

dvdsBaseline Analytics has refined a series of stock and ETF-screening algorithms that pinpoint timely, high-probability trades and investment opportunities.

The results of Baseline Analytics' stock and ETF screens are delivered in a downloadable Excel file.  This file can be sorted to identify various performance and technical criteria to help provide a further edge to your trading and investments. Instructions are provided to guide you through your review. Our goal is to deliver such opportunities at your fingertips, with minimal research and analysis needed on your end.  We do provide a link to Yahoo Finance for each of our timely picks should you want to delve further into particular equities or ETF's.

Baseline Analytics has published its list of the stocks going Ex-Dividend in September that exhibit favorable technical trends. Perhaps a dividend-payer or two will emerge as a timely, attractive investment. 

This list is offered free of charge.  Please check out our Premium Services , currently offered as OPEN ACCESS!

Click here for the list.

Subscribers to Baseline Analytics receive our proprietary screens regularly, and this screen in particular will be honed even further for more targeted opportunities, including noteworthy fundamental and technical criteria.  Receive these updates as well as our TrendFlex family of market trend signals and risk assessment tools as a subscriber to Baseline Analytics.

Profitable investing!

Baseline Analytics

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