TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 12/8/2017

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change in the TrendFlex signals this week.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +2.10% +2.10%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +31.3% +31.3%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.38 to 1.39 and closed slightly above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.

TFS12082017

 

  TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

6.20%

6.20% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 26.3% 26.3% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator shows a sizeable gap versus its moving average: 

LQD12082017 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
5 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 12/1/2017

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short-term TrendFlex Classic CR signal shifted to BUY mode at the market close on 11/22, as the 11/9 SELL signal was rather short-lived  There was no change in the TrendFlex signals thsi week.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +1.70% +1.70%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +30.9% +30.9%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.43  to 1.38 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.

TFS12012017

  TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

5.90%

5.90% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 25.8% 25.8% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator shows a sizeable gap versus its moving average: 

LQD12012017  

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
21 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 12/1/2017 Update

Note: Next update following the market close of 12/15/2017.

TrendFlex signals for select index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. ETF's represent US and foreign equities, commodities, bonds and the US Dollar.

Major Index ETF's 

Symbol 

     Trend

Trend Change Risk 

Observations and Rationale
 SPY

 Bullish 

Hi

Increased risk of continued pullback

 DBA Bearish  Low Attempted bottoming action appears unconvincing
 GLD Bullish Low Trending up; attractive contrarian position and hedge
 VGK Bullish   Hi Attractive US alternative' holding to 50-day 
 UUP Bearish High Correcting from recent rally; 50 day moving avg. resistance. Breakout above 24.80 sets bullish trend
 TLT Bullish   Med Attractive entry point; resistance near 128
EEM Bullish   Med Basing pattern; attractive entry near 45

Select Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Volatile; attractive entry near 61.
XLU Bullish Low Potential topping; resistance near 57.
XLI  Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback; support near 71
XLB Bullish Low Possible double top; resistance naer 60
XLV  Bullish Med Correcting; Attractive entry near 80
XLE Bullish Low Firming uptrend, support at 67
XLP  Bullish Hi Resistance near 67; topping pattern
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Strong breakout; macro trend favor financials; nearing poverbought

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
XBI SPDR Biotech ETF bounces at support after modest correction 82.28 12/7/17
PFF Long basing pattern; closed above 50-day moving avg; 5.97% yield 38.13 11/18/17
RSX Basing at 50-day moving average; attractive entry 20.49 8/24/17
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
Continue reading
38 Hits

Unwinding of Tech (and Re-winding of Financials)

Today there was quite a reversal in financial stocks at the "expense" of technology.  The chart below plots a ratio of the XLF Finance SPDR vs. the XLK Technology SPDR.  Note today's surge:

xlfxlk

What is interesting is the "fits and starts" seen over the plotted timeframe since April.  This leads us to assess that what we saw today was merely a reversion to the mean for tech, and a resumption of the uptrend (along with the broader market) for financials.

Note the smaller charts below: XLK (Tech) is settling near its 50-day moving average (not there yet so some more potential downside in store). Financials (XLF), with their strong surge moves their index back to the "up" trendline.

So in our view, just a bit of sector rotation unwiding the excesses we have seen in tech, with laggard financials catching up.  

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32 Hits

Thinking About the Yield Curve

Baseline Analytics checks in on a monthly basis the status of the yield curve as displayed on StockCharts.com.  StockCharts does a great job showing the yield curve dynamically, correlating it with the price of the S&P 500 since the late 1990's.  

Here's a snapshot.  You can run the dynamic activity by visiting this link.

dyc

Marc chandler wrote this interesting blog as we think about the components of the yield curve and what it's up to. Click here to see Marc's blog.

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36 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 11/24/2017

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short-term TrendFlex Classic CR signal shifted to BUY mode at the market close on 11/22, as the 11/9 SELL signal was rather short-lived  There was no change to the longer-term TrendFlex Allegiance signal this week, which remains on a long-term buy.  Given the improved bullish reading of the TrendFlex Score (below), bias firmly continues to the upside. Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 11/22/17 +0.20% +0.20%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +28.9% +28.9%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.54 to 1.43 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.

TFS11242017

  TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

4.30%

4.30% 1.00
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 23.9% 23.9% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator had shown a sizeable gap versus its moving average, which anticipated the recent decline in the S&P 500.  The gap has narrowed and no longer represents an extreme reading.  

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
22 Hits

TrendFlex Classic CR Signal

True to recent whipsaw activity (modest market setbacks followed by continuation of the uptrend), the TrendFlex Classic CR signal crossed above its moving average (rather decisively) on 11/21.  See the chart below.

TFC11222017

A number of other indicators are flashing warnings (i.e. RSI for the S&P 500 is showing negative divergence). Caution still rules, however the TrendFlex Classic CR signal may reset following this week's market activity.

Diverge

 

Continue reading
34 Hits

Small Cap Relative Strength Picks Up

Small Cap stocks have lagged in relative strength versus their larger-cap brethren. Recently, however, improved market breadth has brought along a resurgence in small caps.

Note the improved relative strength in Small Cap Value (IJS) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) ETF's as a ration of the indices with the S&P 500.  Broader market participation of the small cap sector invites us to seek growth and value-oriented small cap opportunties.

 

IWM Snippet

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31 Hits

High Yield Bond Risk - Time for Defensive Strategies?

Investors have poured billions of dollars into Exchange-Traded Funds focused on high-yoeld securities. In this article, David Fabian of FMD Capital Management addresses the recent volatility in high yield bond ETF's and defensive strategies to protect capital.  Click here for David's article.

 

Continue reading
39 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 11/17/2017

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short-term TrendFlex Classic CR signal remains in SELL mode. There was no change to the longer-term TrendFlex Allegiance signal this week, which remains on a long-term buy.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Sell 11/9/17 +0.20% -0.20%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +27.7% +27.7%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.46 to 1.54 and remains above its three-week moving average, underscoring the risk to long positions at this level of the S&P 500.

TFS11172017

  TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

3.350%

3.30% 1.30
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 22.8% 22.8% 1.00
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The LQD indicator had shown a sizeable gap versus its moving average, which anticipated the recent decline in the S&P 500.  The gap has narrowed a bit, and no longer represents an extreme reading.  

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
27 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 11/17/2017 Update

Note: Next update following the market close of 12/1/2107.

TrendFlex signals for select index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. ETF's represent US and foreign equities, commodities, bonds and the US Dollar.

Major Index ETF's 

Symbol 

     Trend

Trend Change Risk 

Observations and Rationale
 SPY

 Bullish 

Hi

Increased risk of continued pullback

 DBA Bearish  Low Correction disrupts modest rally
 GLD Bullish Low Holding its 50-day moving avg; attractive contrarian position
 VGK Bullish   Hi Correcting from overbought state
 UUP Bearish High Correcting from recent rally; 50 day moving avg. resistance. Breakout above 24.80 sets bullish trend
 TLT Bullish   Med Attractive entry point; resistance near 128
EEM Bullish   Med Overbought; attractive entry near 45

Select Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Overbought; attractive entry 61-62 
XLU Bullish Low Attractive entry
XLI  Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback; suuport near 69
XLB Bullish Low Bounce off 50-day; attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Med Correcting; Attractive entry near 80
XLE Bullish Low Support at 67
XLP  Bullish Hi Overbought; attractive entrynear 54
XLY Bullish Hi Overbought
XLF  Bullish Med Attractive entry 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
PFF Long basing pattern; closed above 50-day moving avg; 5.97% yield 38.13 11/18/17
RSX Basing at 50-day moving average; attractive entry 20.49 8/24/17
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
Continue reading
35 Hits

TrendFlex CR Sell Signal Remains in Effect

Opportunity to hedge long positions continues.  The SELL signal for the S&P 500 established at the market close of November 9th has a positive return of +0.8%.  See the updated chart below:

TFCCR11152017

Continue reading
35 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 11/10/2017

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The TrendFlex Classic CR signal shifted to a SELL on 11/9/17. There was no change to the longer-term TrendFlex Allegiance signal this week.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Sell 11/9/17 +0.10% -0.10%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +28.0% +28.0%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.42 to 1.46 and remains above its three-week moving average, underscoring the risk to long positions at this level of the S&P 500.

TFS11102017

 TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 9/14/17

3.50%

3.50% 1.25
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 23.0% 23.0% 1.50
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals (new addition to our list; we removed the TED Spread indicator as it's effectiveness has diminished.
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. 

The LQD indicator still shows a sizeable gap versus its moving average.

LQD11102017 

 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
51 Hits

Sell Signal TrendFlex Classic CR

At the market close of 11/8/2017, the TrendFlex Classic CR signal avoided a SELL despite an intraday dip into SELL territory.  Today, the indicator has once again turned bearish, as can be seen in the chart below.  We require a close below its moving average, so at this time the SELL signal is not a done deal, but we suspect it will be and have noted today's market close as a new SELL signal.

TFCCR11092017b

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52 Hits

Pending Sell Signal TrendFlex Classic CR

The TrendFlex Classic CR indicator is heading toward a sell signal.  It has been on a buy signal since 9/14/17.  Confirmation will be based on a close below its moving average (see red circle to the right on the chart below).

 

TFCCR11072017

Continue reading
59 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 11/3/2017

 

  Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

NOTE: TrendFlex Classic CR Sell Signal to be confirmed following 11/9/2017 market close.  

TFCCR11092017b

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 9/14/17 +3.70% +3.70%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +28.2% +28.2%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.24  to 1.42 and closed above its three-week moving average, underscoring the risk to long positions at this level of the S&P 500.Given the strength of this rally, no more than a 5% correction would be a reasonable expectation.

TFS11032017

 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 9/14/17

3.70%

 

+3.70% 1.0
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +23.2% +23.2% 1.0
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals (new addition to our list; we removed the TED Spread indicator as it's effectiveness has diminished.
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. 

Notice that the NYMO and the NYSI momentum indicators shifted to red (see red dotted lines) with their respective moving average cross-overs. The LQD indicator still shows a sizeable gap versus its moving average, however that has narrowed a bit as the moving average has also been falling.

 

 NYMO11032017

 SUM11032017

 LQD11032017

 

 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.    

 

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
75 Hits

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 10/27/2017

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 9/14/17 +3.40% +3.40%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +27.8% +27.8%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.12  to 1.24 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.

TFS10272017

 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend 9/14/17

3.40%

 

+3.40% 1.0
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +22.9% +22.9% 1.0
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The  LQD extreme indicator is at an extreme.

LQD10272017

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.    

 

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
92 Hits

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 10/27/2017 Update

No Update week ending 11/17/17

TrendFlex signals for select index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. ETF's represent US and foreign equities, commodities, bonds and the US Dollar.

Major Index ETF's 

Symbol

Trend  

Trend Change Risk  

Observations and Rationale
 SPY  Bullish       Hi

 Increased risk of pullback

 DBA Bearish  Low Modest rally may be aging
 GLD Bullish Med Contrarian position, but range-bound with resistance at 130
 VGK Bullish   Low Increased risk of pullback
 UUP Bearish High Rallying; looking for trend breakout; resistance at 25-26
 TLT Bullish   Med Attractive entry point; resistance near 28
EEM Bullish   Med Overbought; attractive entry near 43


 Sector SPDR ETF's

 Symbol  Trend

Trend Change Risk

Notes
XLK Bullish Hi Overbought
XLU Bullish Low Attractive entry
XLI  Bullish Hi Increased risk of pullback
XLB Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLV  Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLE Bullish Low New uptrend; may see trading range
XLP  Bullish Hi Threatening support
XLY Bullish Med Attractive entry
XLF  Bullish Hi Overbought


 

 

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
RSX Basing at 50-day moving average; attractive entry  20.49  8/24/17 
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 10/20/2017

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 9/14/17 +3.20% +3.20%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +27.5% +27.5%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.29 to 1.12 and closed below its three-week moving average. 

TFS10202017

 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend  9/14/17

3.20%

 

+3.20% 1.0
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +22.6% +22.6% 1.0
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The  LQD extreme indicator is at an extreme.

 LQD10202017

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.    

 

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 10/13/2017

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

There was no change to the TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance signals this week.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 9/14/17 +2.30% +2.30%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +26.4% +26.4%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.13 to 1.29 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish sign. 

TFS10132017

 

TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF and Allegiance signals remain in Uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend  9/14/17

2.30%

 

+2.30% 1.0
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +21.6% +21.6% 1.0
Historic Performance          

 

Baseline Analytics Extremes

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. TED Spread
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The  LQD extreme indicator is at an extreme.

LQD10132017

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.    

 

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading
98 Hits