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TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)
TrendFlex Classic CR signal shifted to Long at the market close of 11/8, as noted in our intra-week update. The longer-term Allegiance signal remains Long.
S&P 500 Return
|S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt).|
|TrendFlex Classic CR||Long||11/08/16||+1.2%||+1.2%|
|TrendFlex Allegiance CR||Long||4/13/16||+7.2%||+7.2%|
The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.83 to 1.64 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. This week we saw some market improvement in indicators that have lagged for a while: our Copper/US Bond ratio leaped above its 200-day moving average, and the SPX/US Bond ratio pushed to a new high.
TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)
The TrendFlex Classic TF signal shifted from Cash to Long this week. The longer-term Allegiance signal remained in Uptrend. Both are strongly bullish with scores of 1.30 and 1.125, respectively.
S&P 500 Return
S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term). Score: Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0
|TrendFlex Classic TF||Cash||9/26/16||1.2%||1.2%||1.300|
|TrendFlex Allegiance TF||Uptrend||5/31/16||3.1%||3.1%||1.125|
Baseline Analytics Extremes
Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings. The key indicators include the following:
- CBOE VIX Reading
- CBOE Put/Call Ratio
- TED Spread
- LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading
When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow.
A large gap in the LQD/SPX ratio vs. its moving average suggests that the recent rally may need a breather.
The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish. Given recent market strength and positive seasonality, hedging long positions is less encouraging at this time.
|Set Stops on Longs|
|Short Overbought Equities|
|Add to Longs|
|Hedge or Reduce Shorts|
|Long Futures and Options|
*Red highlighted items are recommended strategies