Mr. Palmerton is the Founder of Baseline Analytics, and has 30 years of experience spanning corporate finance, asset management and financial markets research. He has held positions as CFO, Director of Finance, and Financial Management and Analysis roles for Fortune 500 and multi-national firms (ADP, Honeywell, Linde Group) as well as for early-stage and emerging growth ventures). Bob founded Baseline Analytics in 2005. With the objective to utilize technical analysis of the financial markets, coupled with macro-economic trends, Baseline Analytics strives to keep investors on the right side of the market at all times. Bob developed the TrendFlex indicator, comprised of a blend of financial indicators that assess the risk of a change in market trend. Baseline Analytics’ TrendFlex models are utilized as the basis for asset allocation strategies of The Absolute Return Market Trend Portfolio. Mr. Palmerton’s articles and blogs can be found on Seeking Alpha, Finding Technicals and Baseline Analytics.

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 11/20/2015

All Trendflex signals remain unchanged for the week.   

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Uptrend  10/12/15 +3.6%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend  10/26/15 +0.7%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  10/19/15 +2.8%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 -1.2%

The TrendFlex Score remained unchanged at 1.64 and remains below its three-week moving average. 

TFS11202015

There is a modest bullish shift to the Portfolio Options Table this week.  

Portfolio Strategies
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

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What's Up with MFLX?

Multi Fineline Electronix has emerged repeatedly in the Baseline Analytics Wrapper Value Stock Report. 

The provider of engineering, design, and manufacture of flexible printed circuit boards and related component assemblies for the electronics industry sports several value-based fundamental criteria that earned it a "value" classification in the value stock list that Baseline Analytics uses to run its daily screeners.  After combing through our value stock list, Baseline Analytics' screeners search for technical criteria to pinpoint those value opportunities that may represent an attractive entry point.

Here are some of the key value-based criteria that look interesting about MFLX:

  • PEG Ratio of .76
  • Trailing PE of 3; Forward PE of 12
  • Increasing earnings estimates and a record of beating EPS estimates over the last 4 quarters.

In recent news,  MFLX reported Net Income of $13.7 million, or $0.54 per diluted share, an increase of 131 percent from $5.9 million, or $0.24 per diluted share, in the same period last year.  As reported by Yahoo Finance, Reza Meshgin, Chief Executive Officer of MFLEX, commented, "With outstanding operational execution during the third quarter, we achieved our fifth consecutive quarter of strong profitability with earnings per share more than doubling year-over-year.  We saw a sequential increase in net sales driven by new programs that ramped during the third quarter.  Gross margin also increased sequentially and exceeded our guidance range as we effectively managed the launch and ramp of these new programs.  Additionally, we generated strong cash flows during the quarter, growing our cash position to $168.5 million, an all-time high for MFLEX."

As for screener results, we look for stocks that have liquid trading volume and are priced in a "Bullish" zone.  Our next step is to deliver this screened list in our "volume surge" format, which highlights volume and price activity over recent, multiple timeframes.  In addition, technical criteria such as RSI and ADX are identified to help hone the list to those with more attractive technical features. Here is a current chart of MFLX and some technical highlights:

mflx111715

MFLX rose to the top of our value wrapper list recently, and we highlighted MFLX in our "call-out" list from November 9th. 

Gems such as MFLX pop up all the time.  Subscribers to BLA can download the Excel list wrapper report and review at their leisure (links to further research are provided).  Bottom line, our service streamlines your investment analysis by delivering targeted opportunities to your desktop on a regular basis.

Click here to review our Premium services and see how we compare to the competition!  We trust that you will be surprised at the breadth of services, and the price! 

 

 

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 11/13/2015

Ths week's 3.63% decline in the S&P 500 was characterized by a sharp decline in the S&P 500 High-Low percentage, one of the TrendFlex signal  indicators and enough to shift the composite scores of the signals to a neutral stance (see charts in their links below).  

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Uptrend  10/12/15 +0.4%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend  10/26/15 -2.5%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  10/19/15 -0.4%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +2.1%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.66 to 1.64 and remains just barely below its three-week moving average.  A close above its moving average would signal a bearish event.

TFS11132015

The Portfolio Options Table is more cautious following this week's activity.  Suggested strategies are highlighted in red.  Click on the strategy to see more detailed options.

Portfolio Strategies
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

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New Stock Scan Wrapper Report Posted - Growth Leaders

excelBaseline Analytics has posted a new stock scan wrapper report.  Each evening, Baseline Analytics scans over 6,000 equities and ETF's to identify timely entry conditions based on a variety of technical criteria.  The resulting list is filtered to present investment ideas focused on the themes of Growth, Value or Dividends.

The stocks are liquid (no thinly-traded instuments here) and are presented in our Volume Surge report format as a downloadable Excel report, instructions as to how to profit from the screen are included.

Click here to subscribe!  Learn more about Baseline Analytics TrendFlex Signals and Premium Services!

Best Regards,

Baseline Analytics

 

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 11/06/2015

There are no changes to the TrendFlex signals at this week's close of the S&P 500.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic 1 Uptrend  10/12/15 +4.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend  10/26/15 +1.2%
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  10/19/15 +3.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 -1.6%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.68 to 1.66 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  

TFS11062015

The Portfolio Options Table is unchanged for the week.    

POT10302015 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

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New Stock Scan Wrapper Report Posted - Growth Leaders

excelBaseline Analytics has posted a new stock scan wrapper report.  Each evening, Baseline Analytics scans over 6,000 equities and ETF's to identify timely entry conditions based on a variety of technical criteria.  The resulting list is filtered to present investment ideas focused on the themes of Growth, Value or Dividends.

The stocks are liquid (no thinly-traded instuments here) and are presented in our Volume Surge report format as a downloadable Excel report, instructions as to how to profit from the screen are included.

Click here to subscribe!  Learn more about Baseline Analytics TrendFlex Signals and Premium Services!

Best Regards,

Baseline Analytics

 

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What's All The Buzz About The Baseline Analytics TrendFlex Score?

One of the key indicators developed and tracked by Baseline Analytics is the TrendFlex Score.  This indicator has influenced the trading and investment strategies of our subscribers since its founding in 2011.

The TrendFlex Score was developed following an extensive analysis of select technical, fundamental and economic indicators correlated with performance to the S&P 500.

The following key components calculate the TrendFlex Score: 

  • Technical Index Reviews (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq)
  • Internal Market Strength (i.e. Price and Earnings Momentum)
  • Market Psychology
  • Economic Sector Relative Earnings Strength
  • Credit spreads (Government vs. Corporate)
  • Intermarket Relationships (bonds, commodities, stocks) and relative risk premiums
  • Style (small cap, large cap, value and growth)

These indicators have been weighted based on back-tested results.  The resulting TrendFlex Score tends to range between 1.30 and 2.60. High scores coincide with bearish market trends. Low scores, conversely, associate themselves with bullish trends.

The signal for a trend change is denoted by the TrendFlex Score crossing above or below its three-week moving average.  In the chart below, the TrendFlex Score is plotted as an oscillator around the "0" line, denoting when the score crosses above or below its three-week moving average.   

TFS Historic

Note in the chart above how the TrendFlex Score bars fall below the "0" line in uptrends, and the converse in downtrends.  Baseline Analytics utilizes these signals to establish short-term bullish or bearish positions in equities.  As a simple hedging strategy, a long portfolio can be hedged with a short position in the S&P 500 e-mini futures, when the TrendFlex Score (bar) falls below its three-week moving average ("0" signal line).

The weekly updates provided by Baseline Analytics depict the TrendFlex Score in the following chart, which shows the absolute value of the TrendFlex Score plotted with the S&P 500::

TFS10302015

Note that in the October 2015 rally, the TrendFlex Score crossed below its three-week moving average (the "signal" line). 

As you can see, TrendFlex Scores in the 1.30 area tend to precede selloffs in the S&P 500, while scores generally higher than 2.0 tend to precede rallies in the S&P 500.

Note the recent peaks in the TrendFlex Scores settling over 2.0 in August, and the rally that followed.  The TrendFlex Score is calculated on a weekly basis, following Friday's market close, and reported in the weekly Baseline Analytics update prior to the market open the following Monday (most updates are completed on Sundays). The TrendFlex Score may be updated more frequently as market conditions warrant.

Investors utilize the TrendFlex Score as a gauge to assess a risk to a change in the short-term market trend, and as a condition to initiate a hedge to a long (or short) market portfolio.  For example, many of our subscribers retain a long-term horizon, with occasional speculative positions, including long and short options and futures. 

Visit our Premium Services overview page for more information and performance results on the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex Score and signals. 

Our Halloween Special offers a 50% discount on all Baseline Analytics Premium Services.   Act fast, as it expires soon!

 

 

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Scary 50% Off on ALL Baseline Analytics Subscriptions - Ending Soon!

50% OFF All Premium Service Subscriptions through 11:59:59pm 11/2/15!!

Baseline Analytics updates its TrendFlex family of market trend risk-assessment indicators prior to the market open of each new week, or more frequently as market conditions warrant. 

Be sure to check out our expanding Premium Services, including SignalSelect, StockStash, and ETF Zone selections, and our new Asset Allocation model. Our low risk subscriptions provide access to all of the Baseline Analytics Premium Services.

Click here to subscribe!

Thank you for subscribing to Baseline Analytics TrendFlex!

Best Regards, and Welcome to this week’s New Subscribers!

Baseline Analytics

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 10/30/2015

There are no changes to the TrendFlex signals at this week's close of the S&P 500 (TrendFlex Allegiance shifted to uptrend at Monday's open).  TrendFlex Allegiance II remains on downtrend, as potential resistance surfaces with the S&P 500's attempt to match its summer highs.  

 

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic 1 Uptrend  10/12/15 +3.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend  10/26/15 -0.2%
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  10/19/15 +2.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 -0.7%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.74 to 1.68 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  

TFS10302015

The Portfolio Options Table is more bullish.  Caution is suggested however as the bounce from the August lows is appearing overbought and facing resistance.  An e-Mini S&P 500 short may be in order to hedge long positions.  

POT10302015 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

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Market Tour Update

Not much to complain about on this chart.  

Technical indicators are positive across the board (if not a bit over-played).  The S&P 500 finds decent support above its 200-day moving average, after breaking through two levels of noteworthy resistance (2000 and 2050).

"Known Sure Thing" (KST) closed above the Bull/Bear "0" mark decisively a couple of weeks ago.  Although VIX looks extended on the downside (a sign of complacency as the crowd follows the upswing in equities), stochastics show that overbought conditions can subsist for a while.

Next stop is to breach the summer highs.  

Wouldn't mind a little cautious diversification (more $$ to bonds?) at this juncture!

 

blog102815

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 10/23/2015

The bullish market profile continues to improve.  TrendFlex Allegiance shifts to uptrend at Monday's open.  TrendFlex Allegiance II remains on downtrend, underscoring the potential resistance we may see should the S&P 500 attempt to match its summer highs.  

 

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic 1 Uptrend  10/12/15 +3.0%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Downtrend; shift to Uptrend 10/26  8/24/15 -5.8%
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  10/19/15 +2.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 -0.5%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.90 to 1.74 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  

TFS10232015

There is no change to the Portfolio Options Table this week.  

POT10092015 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 10/16/2015

The TrendFlex Classic score shifted to Uptrend at Monday 10/12 open.  The TrendFlex Classic II Score (our bond-based risk premium model)  will shift to an Uptrend on Monday, 10/19.  The longer-term Allegiance signals remain at Downtrend.

The Classic scores, turning bullish within the last two weeks, demonstrate how short-term technical signals can convey a bullish position within an overall bearish-looking landscape (as indicated by the longer-term Allegiance scores).  On a short-term basis, the odds of further gains to the upside appear favorable, given the relatively high TrendFlex Score.  Although the score closed at 1.90 on Friday (see chart below), it remains below its three-week moving average (a bullish development).  In addition, the score has a ways to go before it becomes risky to add to long positions (1.60 or lower may suffice as a low score in this environment).  For longer-term investors, we anticipate further resistance pressure should the S&P 500 approach its summer highs. In conclusion, the recent upside in the markets appear to be a countertrend rally.  A firm and sustained close above the summer highs is needed to shift this characterization of the equity markets.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic 1 Uptrend  08/24/15 +0.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Downtrend  8/24/15 -3.9%
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend; shift to Uptrend 10/19 9/28/15 -5.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +1.6%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.98 to 1.90 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  

TFS10162015

There is no change to the Portfolio Options Table this week.  

POT10092015 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

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Technical Status of the Rebound from the August Lows

The S&P 500 has gained 8% since its closing low on August 25th.  Since then, it has breached the psychologically important 2000 resistance level.  Here are a few technical considerations as we characterize the next move in equities.  See the chart below.  

Relative Strength Index (RSI).  RSI dipped to a "correction low" near 20 during the heat of the late August selloff (see the top portion of the chart).  RSI had not bridged that level at all for the previous 12 months, part of which comprised the October 2014 swoon during the Ebola virus outbreak, when its decline stopped near 30.  RSI at 60 is mildly overbought within a corrective phase.

blog101215b

 

Known Sure Thing (KST), developed by Martin Pring, closed below 0 at the August selloff, and has meandered higher since bottoming in September, to close at a recent -9 (still in bearish territory but with an encouraging comeback).  A negative reading in KST has generally accompanied equity downtrends.  

Both Vix and Put/Call (our proxies for sentiment measures) have settled back from extreme fear readings, and now suggest increased complacency.  Both indicators closed  below their respective 50-day moving averages at "quiet" levels. These contrary indicators are worth heeding as potential warning signs on the young age of this bounce.

Stochastics flash the more disturbing signal.  These are useful momentum indicators during sidways markets, as one can argue that the market has been flat (albeit volatile) in a wide-ranging 1870-2000 path.  Stochastics are currently overbought and ripe for likely trading range behavior, if not another downward leg.

As for the S&P 500 price action, an attractive milestone was its close back above the 2000 resistance level.  As the chart suggests, however, further resistance looms near 2040.

So the indicators lean on the neutral-to-bearish (short-term) side as equities struggle to gain a firm foothold.

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Stocks at Bearish Resistance Levels - Is the Rebound Ailing?

Baseline Analytics ran its bearish resistance scans and found over 60 equities and ETF's that have closed at resistance levels and may have extended their bounces from the August lows.

 

SMH is one such item. The ETF has settled back from its 200-day moving average while RSI settles back from a recent high.

 

smh 10092015

 

Subscribers can access the entire list as well as other recent scans and Baseline Analytics TrendFlex family of market timing signals.

For more information, visit Baseline Analytics.  And don't forget to sign up for our Free Trial!

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A Macro Economic and Technical Take on the Aging Bull Market - Re-post from March 2015 - 10/11/15

Barron's recently featured a talk with Doug Ramsey, Chief Investment Officer of Leuthold Group.  After six years of gains, Doug believes the the bull market is "tracing out a top."  "Valuations are high, yields are low, and areas like small caps, junk bonds and emerging markets have dipped in and out of bear territory - all worrisome signs for broad U.S. stock returns."  I admire Doug's work (Doug was one of my sponsors of my CMT designation at the Market Technician's Association). So this week I will take Doug's comments in mind while we view a longer-term perspective on the markets. Here are a few indicators of market bullishness and their current state of technical affairs: 

Small Cap vs. Large Cap Stocks

Small Cap strength and outperformance typically confirms the "risk-on" trade in equities. In the chart below, note how small caps underperformed the S&P 500 in 2014 (the brown line is a ratio of the Dow Jones Small Cap Index vs. the S&P 500). Small Caps recently bottomed out in October, and have since been recovering. Recently, however, small caps blazed against volatile general market indices, a potential sign of improvement in market internals.  

smallcapsoutperform03312015

 As seen in the chart below, small caps have continued to outperform the S&P 500:

iwmspx03312015

 

Dow Theory Confirmation (or lack thereof)

Dow Theory non-confirmation is another interesting, recent indication that a topping pattern in equities may be emerging. See this article in MarketWatch. Note that the Dow hit a new high in February, but the Transports lagged.  This is resolved either with the laggard index (in this case the Transports) catching up with the leader Dow, or the laggard pulling the leader down.  What's funky about this technical indicator is that it may be a 50/50 chance of either transports catching up or the Dow "catching down." For additional insight into the current view of Dow Theory, see this report by Matthew Kerkhoff.

dowtheory03312015

Growth vs. Value 

Growth has outperformed value as noted in the relationship between the Russell 2000 Growth Index and the Russell 2000 Value Index in the chart below (see the green boxes).  Those timeframes tend to be positive for the S&P 500. Recently, this relationship has looked a bit toppy with RSI again breaking above 70, a point at which past outperformance has reversed toward a more "risk-off" trade (denoted by the red boxes).

growthvalue03312015

 

Left unsaid in the above charts has been impressive market breadth in the major indices.  For more on this, visit "A Breadth of Fresh Highs" from the Baseline Analytics Market Tour Blog.

To respect the longer-term view, I visited Doug short at Advisor Perspectives. Doug's current assessment and outlook, as published in his March 16, 2015 analysis of economic indicators (click here for Doug's detailed report) is that

"The overall picture of the US economy had been one of slow recovery from the Great Recession with a clearly documented contraction during the winter of2013-2014, as reflected in last year's GDP for Q1 of last year. In April we'll get our first peak at Q1 2015 GDP. Preliminary data suggests that we'll see renewed finger pointing at the weather. The Big Four average in recent months suggests that the economy remains near stall speed."

In my opinion, to harken back to Doug Ramsey's perspective, a stalled stock market is consistent with a "stalled speed" economy, economic fundamentals catch up to valuations (and the financial juice injected by the Fed through last fall).

 

Marco-Economic Perspective

A few economic indicators point to a potential inflection in the markets, based on past performance.  Below is a chart of Initial Claims for Unemployment and the Wilshire 5000 Index. Note that initial claims have tended to find a bottom in the 250,000 to 300,000 level consistently since the mid-1970's.   Also note that there is a fairly consistent penchant for troughs in initial claims to precede tops in the Wilshire 5000.  The noteworthy exception can be seen in the "roaring 1990's" in the stock market, as the trough in initial claims in 1988 was not followed by any meaningful market setback. Even if economic growth opportunities today mirror in part the growth of the 1990's, visually the sharp ascent of the Wilshire 5000 is pronounced (as can be seen at the right of the chart in the orange line) and worthy of a bit of vertigo.

unemp clains wilshire 03272015

On a high level valuation perspective, the market has been tracking the growth in corporate profits rather steadily.  As expected, corporate profit growth tends to do a fair job of leading the market, as can be seen by the peak in profits in 2007 leading the topping action in the S&P 500, and similarly in 2011.  Note the timeframe of 2013 and later; there is a rather steady wide gap between the percentage change (from the prior year) in corporate profits vs. the percentage change in the S&P 500, the latter of which has settled toward the 15% level while the former is closer to single digits. Could this be suggestive of a slowing in the S&P 500 growth rate to a level more consistent with the slowing growth in profits?

spxprofitsfred

Our next view is a monthly chart of the S&P 500.  Although forecasting a market peak is a mix of technical analysis and black magic, it is interesting to note that a cyclical overlay, showing peaks and troughs over the last 20 years, reinforces the age of this bull market:

SPXcycle03092015

So should this be the peak year, where might the bottom be?  One approach is to apply Fibonacci Retracement levels to the current bull market, starting with the lows of March, 2009. A "modest" 38.2% retracement in a secular bull market would put the S&P 500 at the 1600 area. Using our two year spread between peak and trough would suggest 2017 as a bottom.  See below the monthly chart of the S&P 500 with a fibonacci retracement overlay:

SPXfib03092015 

In periods of rising economic growth, falling bond prices (rising rates) does not mean stocks need to decline too.  In the chart below, I have circled (see red ovals) the periods in which bonds have dropped (the 30-year Treasury) but equities (S&P 500 shown by the green line) have climbed. Despite a variety of technical relationships we can identify to support (or deny) the direction of the stock market, the main factor to keep in mind, in my opinion, is the age of this bull as referenced above by Doug Ramsey.

 bondsstocks03112015

So what's the strategy?  Yes the bull is aging, but even flat to single-digit returns over the course of an upcoming two-year period, marred by a correction (perhaps when rates finally do climb) may not be all that bad. Beware that at some point the inevitable recession will surface, and the aforementioned correction may be the leading indicator to such an event. As a tactical approach to this market environment, long term investors should maintain a responsible blend of equities, bonds, cash and alternatives, commensurate with their risk profile.

 

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 10/09/2015

The TrendFlex Classic score improved to Uptrend on the week (entry price will be Monday's opening price of the S&P 500).  All other TrendFlex signals remain in downtrends, despite the 3.26% gain in the S&P 500 this week, as technical resistance points loom further ahead on the upside.  

Most major indices have entered overbought levels following the August selloff.  Many market technicians are viewing this current bounce as a counter-trend rally.  

 

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic 1 Downtrend; Shift to Uptrend 10/12 08/24/15 -2.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Downtrend  8/24/15 -3.0%
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend 9/28/15 -4.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +2.5%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 2.32 to 1.98 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  

TFS10092015

There is a more bullish shift to the Portfolio Options Table this week.  

POT10092015 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 10/02/2015

The Trendflex Allegiance signal shifts from Cash to Downtrend at Monday's open.   TrendFlex Classic shifted to a Downtrend effective with Monday's market open.  Other signals remain unchanged.  

Despite an impressive bounce from near the August lows, technical damage supports continued range-trading.  Surpassing the 2000 level on the S&P 500 will be key as to whether a sustained uptrend can be established.  We have been selling covered calls and identifying some opportunistic shorts to help hedge long positions.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic 1 Downtrend 08/24/15 -0.7%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash, shift to Downtrend 10/5/15 8/24/15 +0.0%
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend 9/28/15 -1.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +5.8%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 2.36 to 2.32 (from Monday's intra-week update), while closing above its three-week moving average.  

TFS10022015

There is no change to the Portfolio Options Table this week.  

POT09182015 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

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Surging ETF's - 9/30/15 Market Close

ETF InvestingBaseline Analytics has refined a series of stock and ETF-screening algorithms that pinpoint timely, high-probability trades and investment opportunities.

The results of Baseline Analytics' stock and ETF screens are delivered in a downloadable Excel file.  This file can be sorted to identify various performance and technical criteria to help provide a further edge to your trading and investments.  Instructions are provided to guide you through your review. Our goal is to deliver such opportunities at your fingertips, with minimal research and analysis needed on your end.  We do provide a link to Yahoo Finance for each of our timely picks should you want to delve further into particular equities or ETF's.

As a special offer, Baseline Analytics is providing a list of ETF's that settled at support levels and traded 50% higher than their 50-day moving average volume on 9/30/15.  

Subscribers to Baseline Analytics receive our proprietary screens regularly, as well as our TrendFlex family of market trend signals and risk assessment tools.

Click here for the report.

Sign up for a Free Trial and check out our reports and TrendFlex signals for the next 30-days.

 

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 9/25/2015

Classic Traditional will shift to a downtrend at Monday's open, following a brief uptrend signal.  There are no signal changes othewise for this week.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic 1 Downtrend 08/24/15 +1.8%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash 8/24/15 +0.0%
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend; shift to Downtrend on 9/28 9/9/15 -0.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +6.9%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 2.23 to 2.17, while closing even with its three-week moving average.  

 TFS09252015  

There is no change to the Portfolio Options Table this week.  

POT09182015 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

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TrendFlex Score Intra-Week Update

Monday's TrendFlex Score closed at 2.36, nearing heights previously associated with short-term bottoms in the equity markets.  Despite the technical carnage (which is clearly self-reinforcing as chart-followers and technical trading algorithms all follow the same tune - have we heard enough about that death cross yet?), stocks with compelling valuations are beginning to surface.  We prefer to see a reading in the 2.50 range to add to longs, but we may dabble a bit at this juncture.

See the chart below, where peaks in the TrendFlex Score coincide with trend shifts to the upside.

TFS09282015

 

 

 

9/25/15 Update:

Classic Traditional will shift to a downtrend at Monday's open, following a brief uptrend signal.  There are no signal changes othewise for this week.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
TrendFlex Classic 1 Downtrend 08/24/15 +1.8%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash 8/24/15 +0.0%
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend; shift to Downtrend on 9/28 9/9/15 -0.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +6.9%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 2.23 to 2.17, while closing even with its three-week moving average.  

 TFS09252015  

There is no change to the Portfolio Options Table this week.  

POT09182015 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

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