Mr. Palmerton is the Founder of Baseline Analytics, and has 30 years of experience spanning corporate finance, asset management and financial markets research. He has held positions as CFO, Director of Finance, and Financial Management and Analysis roles for Fortune 500 and multi-national firms (ADP, Honeywell, Linde Group) as well as for early-stage and emerging growth ventures). Bob founded Baseline Analytics in 2005. With the objective to utilize technical analysis of the financial markets, coupled with macro-economic trends, Baseline Analytics strives to keep investors on the right side of the market at all times. Bob developed the TrendFlex indicator, comprised of a blend of financial indicators that assess the risk of a change in market trend. Baseline Analytics’ TrendFlex models are utilized as the basis for asset allocation strategies of The Absolute Return Market Trend Portfolio. Mr. Palmerton’s articles and blogs can be found on Seeking Alpha, Finding Technicals and Baseline Analytics.

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/12/2016

The TrendFlex Classic I and TrendFlex Allegiance I signals shifted to Downtrend at the opening on Monday, February 8.  All other signals remain unchanged for the wee,   

Performance is through market close on 2/12/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1  Downtrend   2/8/16 0.5% -0.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1  Downtrend  2/8/16 0.5% -0.5%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +9.8% -8.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +10.7% -9.7%

The TrendFlex Score increased from 2.52 to 2.67, and remains above its three-week moving average. The score is at an extreme that in the past has preceded rallies in the S&P 500.   

TFS02122016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital, however we suggest selectively adding to long positions given the extreme reading in the TrendFlex Score.     

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

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A High Yield Debt (and Stock Market) Signal?

A ratio of high yield debt to investment grade corporate debt, using the ETFs HYG vs. LQD, peaked in October 2014 as the S&P 500 continued to move toward new highs.  

As seen in the chart below, at the highs of the S&P 500 this past summer, the debt ratio reached a lower high, then proceeded to decline to new lows.  During this timeframe, the S&P 500 attempted a new high in late 2015, only to struggle to its recent lows.  The debt ratio's "leading indicator" of stock market activity turned out to be rather prescient.

What's noteworthy in this relationship is that the debt ratio has reached the 50% retracement level from its uptrend that started in March, 2009. Should these levels hold in the debt ratio, a firming of equities can also be expected. A resumption in the uptrend for the ratio (as well as the S&P 500) would help to support the scenario that today we are seeing a correction in a bull market, rather than an emerging bear market structure.

 

junk

Baseline Analytics published weekly market trend "risk assessment" indicators to help identify a change in trend.  Click here for a FREE TRIAL.

Leran more about our Premium Services and our TrendFlex family of market trend risk assessment tools.

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/5/2016

Technical indicators took a turn for the worse, following this week's 3.10% decline in the S&P 500.  The TrendFlex Classic I and TrendFlex Allegiance I signals shift to Downtrend at the opening on Monday, February 8.       

Performance is through market close on 2/05/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Neutral (Cash); Downtrend 2/8  1/4/2016 0.0% -7.8%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash); Downtrend 2/8 12/10/15 0.0% -8.2%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +8.9% -8.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +9.8% -9.0%

The TrendFlex Score increased from 2.39 to 2.52, and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.   

TFS02052016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.  We have removed our suggestion to add selectively to oversold longs as we anticipate another leg down in the market.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

End.

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New Month, New Dividends: Hello February!

dvdsBaseline Analytics has refined a series of stock and ETF-screening algorithms that pinpoint timely, high-probability trades and investment opportunities.

The results of Baseline Analytics' stock and ETF screens are delivered in a downloadable Excel file.  This file can be sorted to identify various performance and technical criteria to help provide a further edge to your trading and investments. Instructions are provided to guide you through your review. Our goal is to deliver such opportunities at your fingertips, with minimal research and analysis needed on your end.  We do provide a link to Yahoo Finance for each of our timely picks should you want to delve further into particular equities or ETF's.

Baseline Analytics has published its list of the stocks going Ex-Dividend in January that exhibit favorable technical trends. Perhaps a dividend-payer or two will emerge as a timely, attractive investment. This list was developed following the 2/3/16 market close. 

Subscribers to Baseline Analytics receive our proprietary screens regularly, and this screen in particular will be honed even further for more targeted opportunities, including noteworthy fundamental and technical criteria.  Receive these updates as well as our TrendFlex family of market trend signals and risk assessment tools as a subscriber to Baseline Analytics.

Profitable investing!

Baseline Analytics

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 1/29/2016

There are no changes to the TrendFlex signals this week.     

Performance is through market close on 1/29/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Neutral (Cash)  1/4/2016 0.0% -4.8%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 0.0% -5.3%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +5.6% -5.3%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +6.4% -6.0%

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 2.54 to 2.39, and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.   

TFS01292016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.  However, adding to longs opportunistically in anticipation of a continued bounce in equities may be in order.  Likewise, protecting short positions may be timely.  Although the short-term character of the market suggests that a counter-trend rally is possible, the intermediate to long-term environment is flat to bearish. 

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 1/22/2016

There are no changes to the TrendFlex signals this week.   Extremes in short-term readings noted here earlier this week manifested themselves in a bounce as expected; signals are mixed as to whether a trend shift will be sustained.   

Performance is through market close on 1/22/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Neutral (Cash)  1/4/2016 0.0% -6.4%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 0.0% -6.9%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +7.4% -6.9%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +8.3% -7.7%

The TrendFlex Score increased from 2.46 to 2.54, remaining above its three-week moving average.  It settled down from an extreme of 2.65 earlier in the week, supporting the potential for a bounce.   

TFS01222016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.  However, adding to longs opportunistically in anticipation of a bounce in equities may be in order.  Likewise, protecting short positions may be timely.  Although the short-term character of the market suggests that a counter-trend rally is possible, the intermediate to long-term environment is flat to bearish. 

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Continue reading

Fibonacci Retracement Achieved: Time for that Bounce?

Weekly chart shows (at today's bottom) a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2012 lows.

 

spxfib

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Gap Trade and Shifts in the Market Trend - Bounce Opportunity Update

Charts can speak a thousand words, so I will let the lines and arrows tell the story below.

Looking for extremes (vs. moving averages or peaks and troughs), compare the points of the blue arrows to the sames points on the green S&P 500 line.

The relationship here is the iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Bond Fund vs. its moving average as well as compared to a ratio of the ETF to the S&P 500.

Interesting comparisons that point toward additional evidence of the oversold equity markets. 

Here is the updated chart as of 12:10 pm 1/15/16: 

GAP2

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 1/15/2016

TrendFlex Classic I and TrendFlex Allegiance I signals moved further toward extreme readings following this week's 2.17% decline in the S&P 500.  Given our continued belief of an impending bounce in equities (note this week's extreme TrendFlex Score), we will keep these signals in cash. 

There is no change to the TrendFlex Classic II and TrendFlex Allegiance II signals.    

Performance is through market close on 1/15/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Neutral (Cash)  1/4/2016 0.0% -7.7%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 0.0% -8.2%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +8.9% -8.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +9.8% -8.9%

The TrendFlex Score soared from 2.30 to 2.46 on the week, remaining above its three-week moving average.  The extreme reading of the TrendFlex Score is at a level that in the past would suggest a shift in the short-term trend. For this reason we are watching for a bounce in the equity markets.  

On the other hand, you will notice that at the lows in August, the TrendFlex Score climbed to 2.56 (week ending August 21)  yet the S&P 500 continued to fall before settling down near 1882 at the end of September, with a couple of bounces in between.  There is much techical talk about the S&P 500 finding major support at 1600.  The likelihood of that occurring will be surmized should the S&P 500 fall below current support in the 1850-1900 range (where it is today).

TFS01152016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.  However, adding to longs opportunistically in anticipation of a bounce in equities may be in order.  Likewise, protecting short positions may be timely.  Although the short-term character of the market suggests that a counter-trend rally is possible, the intermediate to long-term environment is flat to bearish. 

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Continue reading

"Gap Trade" and Shifts in the Market Trend - Bounce Opportunity?

Charts can speak a thousand words, so I will let the lines and arrows tell the story below.

Looking for extremes (vs. moving averages or peaks and troughs), 

 

 

 

GAP

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"Gap Trade" and Shifts in the Market Trend - Bounce Opportunity?

Charts can speak a thousand words, so I will let the lines and arrows tell the story below.

Looking for extremes (vs. moving averages or peaks and troughs), compare the points of the blue arrows to the sames points on the green S&P 500 line.

The relationship here is the iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Bond Fund vs. its moving average as well as compared to a ratio of the ETF to the S&P 500.

Interesting comparisons that point toward additional evidence of the oversold equity markets. 

 

GAP

Continue reading

Baseline Analytics Market Tour Update - 1/8/16

The technical overview is bearish and approaching an extreme at which a bounce is likely.  

Per the chart below, the S&P 500 breached major support from the December/January lows on higher volume. Rally attempts (i.e. last night's futures) are met with selling as the market looks to establish a new foundation.

Extremes in bearish readings, denoted by a high VIX reading as well as the Put/Call Ratio, suggest an impending bounce. In addition, stochastics (bottom of the first chart) are reaching oversold levels and reinforce the potential for a rally.

BLAMT1

Market breadth as seen by the NYSE Advance-Decline line held up reasonably well, but is not a convincing positive.  Note today (chart at 10:58 am) that the high/low ratio is trying to bounce, but early positives appear to be taking a backseat to the risk-off trade. 

BLAMT2

Our technical indicators below underscore the defensive nature of the markets, as bonds and defensive equities (staples vs. discretionaries) outperform.

 BLAMT3

So from a purely technical perspective, the edge has to be given to the bears.  Tradeable rallies will ensue, and we will be on the lookout for an impending recovery. Stability in China and a cessation of oil's price decline are potential positives that can sustain a resumption of the uptrend as we move further into the new year.  The economy is holding up reasonably well, as a bear market-induced recession is not a likely event.  Bear markets happen due to recession, an inverted yield curve, or a liquidity crisis, none of which are on the immediate horizon.

We view this as a correction in a "consolidating" to slightly bullish market.  Given the age of this bull market, modest annual gains (if not flat performance) may be in store.

 

 

 

 

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 1/8/2016

1/15/16 Intra-Day Update:

The TrendFlex Score reached 2.60 this morning, reflecting an extreme that has in the past preceded a shift in the short-term trend to Uptrend. Stay tuned for further updates this weekend.

 

1/8/2016 Update: 

As the S&P 500 declined 6% on the week, the TrendFlex Classic I and TrendFlex Allegiance I signals scored toward the extreme end of bearishness (2.50 and 2.60 on a scale of 3.0, respectively). These signals are based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. As such, we believe that this market extreme suggests that such signal bearishness is a potential (contrarian) short-term indicator for a counter-trend rally. These signals will remain in cash.

There is no change to the TrendFlex Classic II and TrendFlex Allegiance II signals.    

Performance is through market close on 1/8/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Neutral (Cash)  1/4/2016 0.00% -5.7%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 +0.0% -6.1%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +6.6% -6.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +7.4% -6.9%

The TrendFlex Score soared from 1.82 to 2.30 on the week, closing above its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  The extreme reading of the TrendFlex Score is at a level that in the past would suggest a shift in the short-term trend.  For this reason we are watching for a bounce in the equity markets.

TFS1082016 

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.  However, adding to longs opportunistically in anticipation of a bounce in equities may be in order.  Likewise, protecting short positions may be timely.  Although the short-term character of the market suggests that a counter-trend rally is possible, the intermediate to long-term environment is flat to bearish. 

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 12/31/2015

The TrendFlex Classic I signal will shift to neutral (cash) at Monday's open, as market internal indicators improved a bit on the week.  All other signals remain unchanged.   

Performance is through market close on 12/24/15.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Downtrend (Neutral 1/4/16)  12/21/15 -1.6% +1.7%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 +0.0% -1.2%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +0.2% +0.2%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +1.0% +1.0%

The TrendFlex Score declined from 1.87 to 1.82 on the week, and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  

 TFS12312015

Given the bullish shift in the short-term TrendFlex Score and the TrendFlex Classic 1 signal, cautiously adding to long positions may be in order.   

Portfolio Strategies
Reduce ongs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 12/24/2015

The TrendFlex Classic I signal shifted to Downtrend at Monday's open.  All other signals remain unchanged.   

Performance is through market close on 12/24/15.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Downtrend  12/21/15 -2.5% +2.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 +0.0% +0.6%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 -0.6% +0.6%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +0.2% -0.2%

The TrendFlex Score declined from 2.18 to 1.87on the week, and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.  

 TFS12242015

Given the bullish shift in the short-term TrendFlex Score, cautiously adding to long positions may be in order.   

Portfolio Strategies
Reduce ongs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 12/18/2015

The TrendFlex Classic I signal shifted to Downtrend following this week's activity. All other signals remain unchanged.   

Performance is through market close on 12/18/15.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Neutral (Cash); shift to Downtrend 12/21. 12/10/15 +0.0% -2.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 +0.0% -2.1%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +2.1% -2.1%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +3.0% -2.9%

The TrendFlex Score climbed from 1.89 to 2.18 on the week, remaining above its three-week moving average.  

TFS12182015

Capital preservation is suggested at this juncture in the market.  We will again be looking for a potential bounce this week and perhaps a smoother ride into year-end.   

Portfolio Strategies
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Continue reading

TrendFlex Signal Returns Updated through 12/11/15 - Up To 3X Outperformance vs. the S&P 500

The returns are in!  Baseline Analytics is pleased to announce the continued outperformance of its TrendFlex signals vs. the S&P 500 benchmark!      Learn more about Baseline Analytics, its Premium Services and very reasonable annual subscription offering.   

 

                           TrendFlex Returns vs. the S&P 500 

TFR12112015

        TFR12112015Trad

            ClassicDesc2      TradDesc

                                            Cumulative returns are through 12/11/2015.

TrendFlex Allegiance performance tracking began in May, 2006. Cumulative performance is compared to a "buy and hold" strategy for the S&P500 (excluding dividends and transaction costs). Trades do not use leverage.  TrendFlex Allegiance is the longer-term signal and has averaged 2 signal changes per year.  

TFAline12112015        TFALineTrad12112015

 TrendFlex Classic performance tracking began in May, 2011. Cumulative performance is compared to a "buy and hold" strategy for the S&P 500 (excluding dividends and transaction costs). Trades do not use leverage.  TrendFlex Classic is the shorter-term signal andhas averaged 8 signal changes per year.    

TFCLine12112015         TFCTradline12112015

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 12/11/2015

As noted in our Wednesday night update, the TrendFlex Classic I signals shifted to Neutral (Cash), while TrendFlex Classic II signal shifted to Downtrend, all at the market open on Thursday, 12/10. . TrendFlex Allegiance II remains in a Downtrend. Performance results of the closed signals can be found in the link below.   

Performance is through market close on 12/11/15.

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Signal  % Return

S&P 500   % Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 +0.0% -1.7%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Neutral (Cash) 12/10/15 +0.0% -1.7%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend  12/10/15 +1.8% -1.7%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 +2.6% -2.5%

The TrendFlex Score climbed to 1.89 on the week, closing above its three-week moving average.  

TFS12112015

Capital preservation is suggested at this juncture in the market.  We will be looking for a potential bounce this week and perhaps a smoother ride into year-end.   

Portfolio Strategies
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

Continue reading

Market Tour Update from Baseline Analytics

Topsy-turvy trading activity continues as volatility shakes up the recent highs established in November and December.

The S&P 500 sits at major support near 2050; as seen in the chart below, that level has held declines in March, April and July, with next support levels at 2020 and 2000.

Martin Pring's "Known Sure Thing," or KST, clearly supported the recent rallies but has now settle back near the bull-bear dividing line near 0.

 

MTU 12112015

 

VIX has seen a recent jump (above its 50-day moving average) but remains at a modestly elevated level, not an extreme high that would precede a resumption of a firm uptrend (we have written often here at Baseline Analytics that extreme readings in VIX versus its 50-day moving average tend to precede trend shifts).

But it is interesting to note that the Put/Call ratio is displaying an extreme with its close at 1.25.  Note the green line in the $CPC portion of the chart: although less reliable that the VIX indicator, the Put/Call reading speaks of a potential move up in stocks.

Finally, stochastics (which come in handy during trading range markets like this) are moving toward oversold levels but have not quite yet arrived at that point.

The market is nervous and volatility as seen in rallies and sell-offs is the character of the day.  As David Fabian has written recently (see our Asset Allocation blog), it may be better to sit on our hands during December.

 

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals: Intra-Week Update 12/09/2015

Following the market close of 12/9/2015, the TrendFlex Classic Traditional (credit risk premium-based signal) shifted to Downtrend. TrendFlex Classic and TrendFlex Allegiance shifted to Neutral (Cash). TrendFlex Allegiance Traditional remains in a Downtrend. The closing price of the current signals (and opening price of new signals) will be based on the opening price of the S&P 500 on Thursday, 12/10.  

Updates to the TrendFlex Score and Portfolio Strategies will be provided following the market close on 12/11/2015.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend Signal Date Performance
S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term)
TrendFlex Classic 1 Uptrend;shift to  Neutral 12/10  10/12/15 +1.6%
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend; shift to Neutral 12/10 10/26/15 -1.3%
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs. Treasury debt) correlated with performance of the S&P 500
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend; shift to Downtrend 12/10 10/19/15 +0.8%
TrendFlex Allegiance II Downtrend 4/6/15 -0.8%

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