Mr. Palmerton is the Founder of Baseline Analytics, and has 30 years of experience spanning corporate finance, asset management and financial markets research. He has held positions as CFO, Director of Finance, and Financial Management and Analysis roles for Fortune 500 and multi-national firms (ADP, Honeywell, Linde Group) as well as for early-stage and emerging growth ventures). Bob founded Baseline Analytics in 2005. With the objective to utilize technical analysis of the financial markets, coupled with macro-economic trends, Baseline Analytics strives to keep investors on the right side of the market at all times. Bob developed the TrendFlex indicator, comprised of a blend of financial indicators that assess the risk of a change in market trend. Baseline Analytics’ TrendFlex models are utilized as the basis for asset allocation strategies of The Absolute Return Market Trend Portfolio. Mr. Palmerton’s articles and blogs can be found on Seeking Alpha, Finding Technicals and Baseline Analytics.

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 7/29/2016

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance CR both remain on Buy signals.  The bullishness of both Classic and Allegiance declined this week, as can be seen in the charts below. 

Performance is through market close on 7/29/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend 6/29/16 +6.4% +6.4%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +7.6% +7.6%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.41 to 1.45 and remains even with its three-week moving average. As can be seen from the chart below, TrendFlex Score readings at this low level have preceded setback in equity markets in the past.

TFS07292016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance trend-following systems remain on Buy signals.  TrendFlex Classic TF has reached its most bullish score to-date (can't get any lower - or more bullish - than a 1.0).  Market breadth remains strongly positive.  Sentiment remains at a bullish extreme and warrants some protection of capital at these levels.       

Performance is through market close on 7/22/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend    7/8/16 +3.2% +3.2& 1.000
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +3.5% +3.5% 1.250
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains a bit defensive, refraining from adding long positions at this time.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

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Index Trend Risk Updates - 7/29/16

Following the market close of 7/28/16, several Index and Sector ETF's have signaled shifts to a potential trend change, based on Baseline Analytics trend-following criteria.  Those ETF's include DIA, XLE, TLT, GLD, XLI and XLP. Click here to see the trend signal changes on our Index and ETF Signals page.

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 7/22/2016

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

TrendFlex Classic CR and Allegiance CR both remain on Buy signals.        

Performance is through market close on 7/22/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Uptrend 6/29/16 +6.5% +6.5%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Uptrend  4/13/16 +7.7% +7.7%
Historic Performance        

 

TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.48 to 1.41 and remain even with its three-week moving average. As can be seen from the chart below, TrendFlex Score readings at this low level have preceded setback in equity markets in the past.

TFS07232016 

TrendFlex Trend-Following Signals (TF)

TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance trend-following systems remain on Buy signals.  TrendFlex Classic TF has reached its most bullish score to-date (can't get any lower - or more bullish - than a 1.0).  Market breadth remains strongly positive.  Sentiment remains at a bullish extreme and warrants some protection of capital at these levels.       

Performance is through market close on 7/22/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF  Uptrend    7/8/16 +3.2% +3.2& 1.000
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend  5/31/16 +3.6% +3.6% 1.250
Historic Performance          

 The Portfolio Strategies chart remains a bit defensive, refraining from adding long positions at this time.    

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

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VIX Extreme Update - 7/22/16

One of Baseline Analytics' key sentiment indicators in the behavior of VIX versus several of its moving average measures.  When VIX gaps well below its moving average, as seen in the chart below (note the blue circles), equity market conditions are ripe for a short-term setback. 

It should be no surprise as equities stretch to new highs, growing participation on the long side has sent VIX to sharply-lower levels.  We are maintaining our hedges to long positions based on this (and other) technical indicators that comprise our TrendFlex products.

VIX07222016

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Dow Theory Divergence - 7/20/16 Market Close

DOW Theory looks for consistent trend performance between the DOW Industrials and the DOW Transports.

In a strongly-bullish environment, both move consistently with positive trendlines.  When one diverges from the other, a caution signal is flashed.  As you can see by the chart below, the DOW recently hit a new high, while the Transports are stuggling to form a base and have not yet achieved a high.

We consider this behavior as indicative of the risk level in today's equity markets.

 

DowTheory07202016

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 7/15/2016

All TrendFlex signals are long.  Updates have been posted on the TrendFlex Results (link below) for trades between 6/17 and 7/15, based on backtested results.  The TrendFlex Classic II signal experienced a fair amount of whip-saw action following the Brexit news.  Since settling down at the end of June, however, signals have been firmly bullish.  The risk now is a short-term overbought condition as noted in the TrendFlex Score below.      

Performance is through market close on 7/15/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Uptrend    7/8/16 +2.6% +2.6& 1.200
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend  5/31/16 +2.9% +2.9% 1.250
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend 6/29/16 +5.8% +5.8%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  4/13/16 +4.2% +4.2%  

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.35 to 1.48 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development indicating short-term risk to equities.

TFS07152016 

 The Portfolio Strategies chart is a bit more defensive.        

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

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Short-Term Overbought Indicators in the S&P 500 - 7/15/16

Two key technical indicators utilized by Baseline Analytics suggest that it may be time to hedge long positions.

VIX has drawn well below its moving average, and the CBOE Put/Call Ratio has likewise fallen to an extreme low.  Both of these technical indicators are considered contrarian and typically flash at least a short-term pullback in equities.

 

VIX071516

As for the longer-term picture, indicators remain positive based on our TrendFlex Allegiance Score of 1.25 (1.0 bullish extreme; 3.0 bearish extreme).  Any short-term setback may settle the S&P 500 near the 2100 area.

TFA071516

Likewise, our TrendFlex Allegiance credit risk spread indicator is also bullish, and has gone sharply higher following the settling down of the Brexit news.

TFA071516 2

Strategy?  Hedge long positions in the short-term, but don't underestimate the strength of this market.  Valuations need consideration and with earnings looking so-so, the market may be edging toward an overvalued stance.  However, keep in mind the historically low interest rates when gauging equity valuations.

 

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 6/17/2016

TrendFlex Classic II shifted to a sell signal effective (backdated) at the 6/13 market close.  TrendFlex Classic I shifts from long to neutral at the 6/17 market close.     

Performance is through market close on 6/17/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Cash    6/17/16 0.0% 0.0% 1.900
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend  5/31/16 -1.4% -1.4% 1.375
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Downtrend 6/13/16 +0.4% -0.4%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +2.6% +2.6%  

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.60 to 1.66 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.

TFS06172016 

 The Portfolio Strategies chart is a bit more defensive.        

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

The next update to the TrendFlex Score and Signals will be following the market close of 7/15/16.

 

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TrendFlex Classic "Sell" Signal Alert - 6/16/16

Despite the S&P 500's robust recovery from this morning's lows, TrendFlex Classic II (our bond risk premium measure) has flashed a SELL signal. This underscores a higher risk profile in equities.  Preserving capital is key.

 

TFC Sell

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 6/10/2016

There are no changes to the signals this week.    

Performance is through market close on 6/10/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Cash; Uptrend 5/31    5/31/16 -0.2% -0.2% 1.100
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash; Uptrend 5/31  5/31/16 -0.2% -0.2% 1.375
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +8.2% +8.2%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +3.8% +3.8%  

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.62 to 1.60 and is even with its three-week moving average. 

 

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains supportive of the bullish trend.        

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 6/3/2016

The TrendFlex Classic I and Allegiance I signals moved to Uptrend on Monday.  There are no other changes to the signals this week.    

Performance is through market close on 6/03/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Cash; Uptrend 5/31    5/2/16 +0.0% +0.0% 1.100
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash; Uptrend 5/31  5/2/16 +0.0% +0.0% 1.375
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +8.4% +8.4%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +4.0% +4.0%  

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.59 to 1.62 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

 TFS06032016

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains supportive of the bullish trend.        

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

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New Month, New Dividends: Welcome June!

dvdsBaseline Analytics has refined a series of stock and ETF-screening algorithms that pinpoint timely, high-probability trades and investment opportunities.

The results of Baseline Analytics' stock and ETF screens are delivered in a downloadable Excel file.  This file can be sorted to identify various performance and technical criteria to help provide a further edge to your trading and investments. Instructions are provided to guide you through your review. Our goal is to deliver such opportunities at your fingertips, with minimal research and analysis needed on your end.  We do provide a link to Yahoo Finance for each of our timely picks should you want to delve further into particular equities or ETF's.

Baseline Analytics has published its list of the stocks going Ex-Dividend in March that exhibit favorable technical trends. Perhaps a dividend-payer or two will emerge as a timely, attractive investment. This list was developed following the 5/27/16 market close. 

This list is offered free of charge.  Please check out our Premium Services , currently offered as OPEN ACCESS!

Click here for the list.

Subscribers to Baseline Analytics receive our proprietary screens regularly, and this screen in particular will be honed even further for more targeted opportunities, including noteworthy fundamental and technical criteria.  Receive these updates as well as our TrendFlex family of market trend signals and risk assessment tools as a subscriber to Baseline Analytics.

Profitable investing!

Baseline Analytics

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 5/27/2016

The TrendFlex Classic I and Allegiance I signals improved markedly this week.  Both will shift from cash to Uptrend at Tuesday's opening.   

Performance is through market close on 5/27/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Cash; Uptrend 5/31    5/2/16 +0.0% +1.5% 1.100
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash; Uptrend 5/31  5/2/16 +0.0% +1.5% 1.375
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +8.4% +8.4%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +4.0% +4.0%  

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.67 to 1.59 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

 TFS05272016

The Portfolio Strategies chart recommends adding to long positions at this time.       

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 5/20/2016

There is no change to the TrendFlex signals this week.   

Performance is through market close on 5/20/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Cash    5/2/16 +0.0% -0.7% 1.900
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash  5/2/16 +0.0% -0.7% 1.875
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +5.9% +5.9%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +1.6% +1.6%  

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.63 to 1.67 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. Further weakness in momentum signals have caused the score to increase.

 TFS05202016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 5/13/2016

TrendFlex Classic I and Allegiance I signals remain in cash as of Monday, 5/2. The TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance II signals remain unchanged for the week, although both have continued to weaken (the shorter-term Classic signal is approaching a sell signal for the S&P 500.  

Performance is through market close on 5/13/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Cash    5/2/16 +0.0% -1.0% 2.100
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash  5/2/16 +0.0% -1.0% 1.875
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +5.7% +5.7%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +1.4% +1.4%  

The TrendFlex Score remained unchanged at 1.63 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. As pointed out over the last three weeks and evident in the chart below, this level suggested a shift in equities to a downtrend. 

TFS05132016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

Continue reading

"Risk-Off" Trade Coming Soon?

TrendFlex Classic II is a short/immediate term signal, and is based on a credit risk-premium indicator utilizing a ratio of the iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate bond Fund (LQD) and the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), compared to a moving average of the same ratio.  A cross above (bullish) or below (bearish) the moving average establishes the signal for the S&P 500.

Note in the chart below, the signal is nearing a "Sell" trigger for the S&P 500.  We will watch this indicator carefully over the next few days.

Trendflex 051116 

When stocks are risky, bonds tend to outperform.  Within that outperformance, “risk-free” U.S. Government debt tends to outperform corporate debt.  TrendFlex assesses this relative performance of government and corporate bond markets and has arrived at Classic II and Allegiance II (longer-term) timing indicators. 

Baseline Analytics and its TrendFlex Signals is currently OPEN ACCESS.  Visit our Premium Services (for FREE) on a regular basis!

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 5/06/2016

TrendFlex Classic I and Allegiance I signals moved to cash at the Monday, 5/2. The TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance II signals remain unchanged for the week, although both have weakened through Friday's market activity. 

Performance is through market close on 5/06/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Cash    5/2/16 +0.0% -0.5% 2.100
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Cash  5/2/16 +0.0% -0.5% 1.875
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +6.2% +6.2%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +1.9% +1.9%  

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.50 to 1.63 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. As pointed out over the last two weeks and evident in the chart below, this level may indicate a shift in equities to a downtrend. We would not be buyers in this market at present, and have added short positions in e-Mini S&P 500 futures to hedge a long portfolio.

TFS05062016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

Continue reading

Index and Sector ETF Signal Changes - 5/3/16 Market Close

Markets can change fast.  Just as the major indices attempted to meet their recent highs, earnings and growth jitters led to a setback.

Baseline Analytics updates its Index and Sector ETF signal page daily as shifts in the technical character of the market emerge.  Click here to see the trend changes from the May 3, 2016 market close.

Baseline Analytics is currently OPEN ACCESS.  Visit our TrendFlex Score and Signals as well as our Index and Sector ETF page regularly!

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Gold's Glittering Technicals

Gold is getting interesting.  Perhaps it is due to a smidgen of inflationary signals and a firming commodities market, as well as a contrary play amidst the prospect of an overbought market ripe for a correction.

Tehnicals are in gold's favor.  Note on the monthly chart below, gold has retraced 50% of its gain from the 2001 low to its 2011 high.

 GLD04292016

On a weekly basis, the breakout looks reasonably firm, albeit a modest retracement of recent gains may be in order.  

GLD04292016b

Gold's price behavior suggests that a little bit of the yellow metal may not be such a bad addition to one's portfolio.  Yesterday, on our Index and ETF Signals page, we cited the "low" risk of a trend change from gold's bullish character.  Our TrendFlex Signals as well as our Index and ETF signals are currently OPEN ACCESS, so please visit frequently.

Best to your investing!

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TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 4/29/2016

Signifying short-term market weakness, the TrendFlex Classic I and Allegiance I signals move to cash at the Monday, 5/2 opening price of the S&P 500. The TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance II signals remain unchanged for the week; these signals tend to have a longer-term perspective based on developments in the credit markets.

Performance is through market close on 4/29/16.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic 1  Uptrend; to Cash 5/2   3/2/16 +4.5% +4.5% 1.900
TrendFlex Allegiance 1 Uptrend; to Cash 5/2 3/31/16 +0.1% +0.1% 1.875
S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic II Uptrend  3/1/16 +6.6% +6.6%  
TrendFlex Allegiance II Uptrend  3/14/16 +2.3% +2.3%  

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.52 to 1.50 and remains below its three-week moving average. As still evident in the chart below, this level may indicate a shift in equities to a downtrend. We would not be buyers in this market at present, and have added short positions in e-Mini S&P 500 futures to hedge a long portfolio.

 TFS04292016

The Portfolio Strategies chart continues to recommend protecting capital.      

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

Click here  for the cumulative returns and trade history for the Baseline Analytics TrendFlex systems since their initial trades

 

Continue reading