Baseline Analytics was founded in 2005 by Bob Palmerton. With the objective to utilize technical analysis of the financial markets, coupled with macro-economic trends, Baseline Analytics strives to keep investors on the right side of the market at all times. Mr. Palmerton utilizes almost thirty years of trading and investment experience, backed by a Chartered Market Technician designation from the Market Technician's Association.  Mr. Palmerton is a Registered Investment Advisor  with a Series 65 license, and has degrees in Finance and Economics from Fordham University and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business in Ann Arbor, MI.

Mr. Palmerton manages the Market Trend Portfolio for The Absolute Return.

 

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 7/27/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term Classic signal remains long. The long term Allegiance signal shifts to long at the market open on 7/30. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 7/6/2018 +1.80% +1.80%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Short 5/212018 -3.00% +3.10%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.50 to 1.51 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

TFS07272018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The Trend-Following systems rely on key technical indicators expressing the health of the current trend.  They tend to be longer-term indicators.The indicators include the TrendFlex Allegiance Trend-Following Signal and the S&P 500 Monthly System.

The TrendFlex Allegiance trend-following signal remains in uptrend mode.  The short-term TrendFlex Classic trend-following signal has been discontinued.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +34.20% +34.20% 1.375
Historic Performance          

S&P 500 Monthly System

spxmonthly 07272018 

The S&P 500 Monthly System is based on a 20 period simple moving average. Buy and sell signals are triggered based on price vs. 20 period moving average. A short trade is established only after 2 years of the S&P 500 remaining above its 20 period moving average, then closes below its 20 period moving average. The short position is covered with a close of the index above its 10 period exponential moving average. 

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading
  4. The TED Spread (Peaks & Troughs)

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The momentum signal indicator confirmed a short-term sell signal (see red arrow in chart below).  This signal tends to be lagging but nonetheless worthy of helping to characterize market risk.

   nymo07272018

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 7/27/2018 Update

TrendFlex signals for select index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. ETF's represent US and foreign equities, commodities, bonds and the US Dollar.

Major Index ETF's 

Symbol 

     Trend

Trend Change Risk 

Observations and Rationale
 SPY

 Bullish 

Hi

Increased risk of pullback at resistance near record high

 DBA Bearish  Med Holding its higher low following a deadcat bounce 
 GLD Bearish Med Downtrend continues; rising US dollar a factor. Support at 115
 VGK Bullish   Low Consolidating in an uptrend; possible breakout at 58
 UUP Bullish Med Rising rates positive
 TLT Bullish   Med Trading range as rates fluctuate
EEM Bullish   Low Closed above 50-day average. Oversold

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
DEM Emerging markets dividend ETF consolidating recent gains; near 50-day MOV; 3.85% yield; gained 2.2% week ending 7/27. 43.66 7/20/18
XBI SPDR Biotech ETF bounces at support after modest correction 82.28 12/7/17
PFF Long basing pattern; closed above 50-day moving avg; 5.97% yield 38.13 11/18/17
RSX Basing at 50-day moving average; attractive entry 20.49 8/24/17
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 7/20/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term Classic signal remains long. The long term Allegiance signal remains short but near a buy point (looking for confirmation). 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 7/6/2018 +1.20% +1.20%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Short 5/212018 -2.50% +2.50%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.64 to 1.50 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

TFS07202018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The Trend-Following systems rely on key technical indicators expressing the health of the current trend.  They tend to be longer-term indicators.The indicators include the TrendFlex Allegiance Trend-Following Signal and the S&P 500 Monthly System.

The TrendFlex Allegiance trend-following signal remains in uptrend mode.  The short-term TrendFlex Classic trend-following signal has been discontinued.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +33.40% +33.40% 1.125
Historic Performance          

S&P 500 Monthly System

spxmonthly 

The S&P 500 Monthly System is based on a 20 period simple moving average. Buy and sell signals are triggered based on price vs. 20 period moving average. A short trade is established only after 2 years of the S&P 500 remaining above its 20 period moving average, then closes below its 20 period moving average. The short position is covered with a close of the index above its 10 period exponential moving average. 

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading
  4. The TED Spread (Peaks & Troughs)

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The momentum signal indicator is near a sell signal (see red arrow in chart below).

   nymo2

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 7/20/2018 Update

TrendFlex signals for select index and sector SPDR ETF's below are based on a trend-following system filtered to identify the "risk" to a change in the trend. ETF's represent US and foreign equities, commodities, bonds and the US Dollar.

Major Index ETF's 

Symbol 

     Trend

Trend Change Risk 

Observations and Rationale
 SPY

 Bullish 

Hi

Increased risk of pullback at resistance near record high

 DBA Bearish  Med Forming a higher low; deadcat bounce on Friday 
 GLD Bearish Med Downtrend continues; rising US dollar a factor
 VGK Bullish   Low Consolidating in an uptrend; possible breakout near
 UUP Bullish Med Rising rates positive
 TLT Bullish   Med Trading range as rates fluctuate
EEM Bullish   Med Consolidating gains; watch for potential shift to downtrend if breaks 40

ETF Technical Leaders

The following table represents ETF's that are in bullish trends and represent technically attractive reward-to-risk entry points (for example, we will shy away from adding an overbought ETF). Although these ETF selections have been pre-screened, investors are advised to pursue their own research to determine whether they are appropriate for their portfolios. Selections are time-sensitive and represent short-term swing trading opportunities that may or may not follow-through on a longer-term basis. In addition, selections may be voided once a market trend change has occurred based on the TrendFlex signals. Visit our FAQ's  for more suggestions regarding ETF Zone. Check back frequently as additional ETF's may be added to the week's list. 

Symbol Rationale Close Date Added
DEM Emerging markets dividend ETF consolidating recent gains; near 50-day MOV; 3.85% yield 43.66 7/20/18
XBI SPDR Biotech ETF bounces at support after modest correction 82.28 12/7/17
PFF Long basing pattern; closed above 50-day moving avg; 5.97% yield 38.13 11/18/17
RSX Basing at 50-day moving average; attractive entry 20.49 8/24/17
EWI iShares Italy ETF inexpensive and possible long-term bottom formed 22.13 12/02/16
XLY Retracement from recent gains; attractive entry point 81.44 12/02/16 
XLV  Post-election catch-up;  nearing positive moving avg. cross (50 over 200 day)  70.49 11/11/16 
Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 7/13/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term Classic signal shifted to long at the market open on Monday. The long term Allegiance signal remains short but near a buy point (looking for confirmation). 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 7/6/2018 +1.20% +1.20%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Short 5/212018 -2.40% +2.50%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.63 to 1.64 and is barely above its three-week moving average. 

TFS07132018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic shifted to uptrend this week, while Allegiance remains in uptrend mode.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 7/10/18

+1.00%

+1.20% 1.300
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +33.40% +33.40% 1.125
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extreme readings this week. 

 

 

  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 7/6/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term Classic signal will shift to long at Monday's market open. The long term TrendFlex Classic signal is short. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 5/22/2018 -1.30% +1.30%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Short 5/212018 -1.00% +1.00%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.61 to 1.63 and is even with its three-week moving average. 

TFS07062018a

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic remains in Cash while Allegiance remains in uptrend mode.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 5/4/18

+0.00%

+2.20% 1.900
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +31.40% +31.40% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extreme readings this week. 

 

 

  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 6/29/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term and long term TrendFlex Classic signals are short. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 5/22/2018 +0.20% -0.20%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Short 5/212018 +0.50% -0.50%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.65 to 1.61 and is even with its three-week moving average. 

TFS06292018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic shifted to Cash while Allegiance remains in uptrend mode.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 5/4/18

+0.00%

+0.70% 1.900
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +29.40% +29.40% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The Put/Call ratio reached an extreme reading this week. 

VIX06292018

 

  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 6/22/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term and long term TrendFlex Classic signals are short. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 5/22/2018 -1.10% +1.10%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Short 5/212018 -0.80% +0.80%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.58 to 1.65, and is above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. 

TFS06222018a

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance are in uptrend mode.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 5/4/18

+3.40%

+3.40% 1.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +31.20% +31.20% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extreme readings this week. 

  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 6/8/2018

 Next Update: Week ending 6/22.

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term and long term TrendFlex Classic signals are short. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 5/22/2018 -0.40% +0.40%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Short 5/212018 -0.10% +0.10%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score is at 1.58 and is slightly above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. 

TFS06082018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance are in uptrend mode.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 5/4/18

+2.70%

+2.70% 1.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +30.20% +30.20% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extreme readings this week. 

  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 6/1/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term and long term TrendFlex Classic signals are short. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 5/22/2018 -0.40% +0.40%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Short 5/212018 -0.10% +0.10%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score is at 1.59 and is slightly above its three-week moving average, a bearish development. 

 TFS06012018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic and Allegiance are in uptrend mode.  

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 5/4/18

+2.70%

+2.70% 1.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +30.20% +30.20% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extreme readings this week. 

  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 5/18/2018

 Next Update: Week ending 6/1.

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term and long term TrendFlex Classic signals are long. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 5/10/2018 -0.40% -0.40%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 5/4/2018 +1.90% +1.90%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score is at 1.52 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

 TFS05182018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 2/5/18

+1.90%

+1.90% 1.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +29.20% +29.20% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extreme readings this week. 

  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 5/11/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term and long term TrendFlex Classic signals are long. 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 5/10/2018 +0.20% +0.20%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 5/4/2018 +2.40% +2.40%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score is at 1.65 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

 TFS05112018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Uptrend 2/5/18

+2.40%

+2.40% 1.700
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +29.90% +29.90% 1.125
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. VIX is showing an extreme (complacency) but may have a while at these levels befire a trend shift occurs.

VIX05112018  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 4/27/2018

 Next Update: Market close week ending 5/11/18.

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal shifted to short on 4/18. The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 4/18/2018 +1.50% -1.40%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 3/26/2018 +0.40% +040%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score is unchanged at 1.69 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

 TFS04272018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-.80%

+.80% 2.400
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 27.10% 27.10% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extremes this week.  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 4/13/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal shifted to long on 4/5. The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 4/05/2018 -0.20% -0.20%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 3/26/2018 -0.10% -0.10%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score is at 1.87 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

 TFS04132018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-.30%

+.30% 2.600
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 26.50% 26.50% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extremes this week.  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/30/2018

Next Update 4/13 market close

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal remains short.. The longer term Allegiance signal shifted back to a long position on 3/26.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/20/2018 +2.90% -2.80%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 3/26/2018 -0.70% -0.70%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score remained flat at 1.97 and remains above its three-week moving average, a bearish development but nearing an extreme where a bullish bounce may occur.

 TFS03302018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

+.30%

-.30% 2.800
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 25.70% 25.70% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. There are no extremes this week.  

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/23/2018

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal remains short.. The longer term Allegiance signal shifted to a short position also, that date is marked at the market close of 3/14.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/20/2018 +4.90% -4.70%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Short 3/14/2018 +6.10% -5.70%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased  from 1.67 to 1.91 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.    

TFS03232018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

+2.30%

-2.30% 2.400
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 23.20% 23.20% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme (especially the Put/Call ratio). The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities. 

vix03232018  

 

lqd03232018

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/16/2018

 Next update will be week ending 3/16.

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal remains short..  The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/20/2018 -1.30% +1.30%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +36.30% +36.30%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased  from 1.87 to 1.69 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.    

TFS03162018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-3.70%

+3.90% 2.300
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 31.0% 31.0% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme. The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities.  There are no extreme readings following thie week's market close.   

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/2/2018

 Next update will be week ending 3/16.

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal shifted to short at the 2/20 market close.  The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/20/2018 +0.90% -0.90%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +33.30% +33.30%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased to 1.87 from 1.71 and closed above its three-week moving average.    

TFS03022018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-1.60%

+1.60% 2.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 28.10% 28.10% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme. The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities.  There are no extreme readings following thie week's market close. 

 

 

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/23/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal shifted to short at the 2/20 market close.  The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/20/2018 -1.10% +1.10%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +36.10% +36.10%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.74 to 1.71 and closed below its three-week moving average.    

TFS02232018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-3.60%

+3.70% 2.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 30.80% 30.80% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme. The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities.  There are no extreme readings following thie week's market close. 

 

 

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/16/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal shifted to long at the 2/15 market close.  The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 2/15/18 0.00% +0.00%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +35.30% +35.30%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.87 to 1.74 and remains above its three-week moving average.    

TFS02162018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF shifted to bearish at the 2/5 market close, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-3.00%

+3.10% 2.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 30.10% 30.10% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme. The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities.  There are no extreme readings following thie week's market close. 

 

 

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Continue reading