The short term Classic signal remains long. The long term Allegiance signal shifts to long at the market open on 7/30.
S&P 500 Return
|S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt).|
|TrendFlex Classic CR||Long||7/6/2018||+1.80%||+1.80%|
|TrendFlex Allegiance CR||Short||5/212018||-3.00%||+3.10%|
The TrendFlex Score increased from 1.50 to 1.51 and remains below its three-week moving average, a bullish development.
TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)
The Trend-Following systems rely on key technical indicators expressing the health of the current trend. They tend to be longer-term indicators.The indicators include the TrendFlex Allegiance Trend-Following Signal and the S&P 500 Monthly System.
The TrendFlex Allegiance trend-following signal remains in uptrend mode. The short-term TrendFlex Classic trend-following signal has been discontinued.
S&P 500 Return
S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term). Score: Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0
|TrendFlex Allegiance TF||Uptrend||5/31/16||+34.20%||+34.20%||1.375|
S&P 500 Monthly System
The S&P 500 Monthly System is based on a 20 period simple moving average. Buy and sell signals are triggered based on price vs. 20 period moving average. A short trade is established only after 2 years of the S&P 500 remaining above its 20 period moving average, then closes below its 20 period moving average. The short position is covered with a close of the index above its 10 period exponential moving average.
Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators
Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings. The key indicators include the following:
- CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
- Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
- LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading
- The TED Spread (Peaks & Troughs)
When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The momentum signal indicator confirmed a short-term sell signal (see red arrow in chart below). This signal tends to be lagging but nonetheless worthy of helping to characterize market risk.
Portfolio Strategy Table
The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.
|Set Stops on Longs|
|Short Overbought Equities|
|Add to Longs|
|Hedge or Reduce Shorts|
|Long Futures and Options|
*Red highlighted items are recommended strategies