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Topsy-turvy trading activity continues as volatility shakes up the recent highs established in November and December.

The S&P 500 sits at major support near 2050; as seen in the chart below, that level has held declines in March, April and July, with next support levels at 2020 and 2000.

Martin Pring's "Known Sure Thing," or KST, clearly supported the recent rallies but has now settle back near the bull-bear dividing line near 0.

 

MTU 12112015

 

VIX has seen a recent jump (above its 50-day moving average) but remains at a modestly elevated level, not an extreme high that would precede a resumption of a firm uptrend (we have written often here at Baseline Analytics that extreme readings in VIX versus its 50-day moving average tend to precede trend shifts).

But it is interesting to note that the Put/Call ratio is displaying an extreme with its close at 1.25.  Note the green line in the $CPC portion of the chart: although less reliable that the VIX indicator, the Put/Call reading speaks of a potential move up in stocks.

Finally, stochastics (which come in handy during trading range markets like this) are moving toward oversold levels but have not quite yet arrived at that point.

The market is nervous and volatility as seen in rallies and sell-offs is the character of the day.  As David Fabian has written recently (see our Asset Allocation blog), it may be better to sit on our hands during December.

 

The Williams Analytics LLC Blog has just posted a new article on the state of the US credit markets and what could be in store for the S&P 500 E-mini and 10-Year US Treasury Note.

As a brief preview, US labor market indicators are still showing positive gains throughout the year ahead but with slowing momentum. This view is consistent across most measures of labor market health and provides evidence that the lion's share of labor market gains are behind us.

With respect to asset prices, the S&P 500 E-mini is expected to continue to become increasingly underpriced, relative to other equity indexes. Conversely, the 10-Year's historical underpricing (relative to other US Treasuries) is expected to revert significantly in the coming year ahead.

Gain more detailed insights today by visiting the Williams Analytics Blog and by downloading Williams Analytics' many FREE Indicator Reports!

The Williams Analytics LLC Blog has just posted a new article on the state of the US single-family housing markets and what could be in store for the S&P 500 E-mini and 10-Year US Treasury Note.

As a brief preview, we are anticipating a slowing in the housing market recovery with momentum declining across most housing measures. To be sure, housing measures such as new units under construction, units for sale, and so on are anticipated to increase in the coming year. It's just that the pace of said increases is expected to be slower than in the past.

With respect to asset prices, the S&P 500 E-mini and 10-Year US Treasury note front month futures contracts are expected to be positively biased by future housing market evolutions over the next year with minor exceptions.

Gain more detailed insights today by visiting the Williams Analytics Blog and by downloading Williams Analytics' many FREE Indicator Reports!

The Williams Analytics LLC Blog has just posted a new article on the state of the US credit markets and what could be in store for the S&P 500 E-mini and 10-Year US Treasury Note.

As a brief preview, we are anticipating a slight increase in intermediate term yield spreads. This implies that credit markets may be pricing in credit market and macroeconomic dysfunction in the intermediate term. At the same time, there are quite a few warning bells being rung in the credit markets with the resurgence of corporate paper spreads, the decline of Treasury and Swap yield slopes, and the inversion of Swap-Treasury Spreads.

With respect to asset prices, the S&P 500 E-mini is showing a strong and increasing disconnect with credit market fundamentals. The 10-Year, on the other hand, is anticipated to re-couple with measures of credit and macroeconomic health. Of course, the changing relationships predicted by our models should be a warning that change is afoot.

Gain more detailed insights today by visiting the Williams Analytics Blog and by downloading Williams Analytics' many FREE Indicator Reports!

The S&P 500 is at a very crucial juncture having corrected from a high of 2116 to 2023 in a span of 8 trading sessions. This also coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the previous major move (from 1872 to 2116). On 11/16 the market showed a strong recovery following expectations of more stimuli from the ECB – the market rallied 1.53% to close at 2053 causing a bullish engulfing pattern on the price chart. This also coincided with a bounce on the RSI 40-levels.

b2ap3_thumbnail_SP-500-index-11-17.JPG

Using momentum-based indicators, a short-term bounce could be expected, however the longer-term charts suggest that a corrective move may be in play. Based on the monthly chart, a significant RSI divergence to price, but the strength on the quarterly is likely to hold the market from deep corrections. The MACD on daily and monthly are in a sell suggesting that this recovery will be short-lived.

In the interim, the market could rally to 2060-levels, breaking which 2078 (61.8% retracement) and 2094 (76.4% retracement) is possible. It could be expected that the market continues the short-term recovery before making a lower top and continuing a correction in this secular Bull Run. 

Multi Fineline Electronix has emerged repeatedly in the Baseline Analytics Wrapper Value Stock Report. 

The provider of engineering, design, and manufacture of flexible printed circuit boards and related component assemblies for the electronics industry sports several value-based fundamental criteria that earned it a "value" classification in the value stock list that Baseline Analytics uses to run its daily screeners.  After combing through our value stock list, Baseline Analytics' screeners search for technical criteria to pinpoint those value opportunities that may represent an attractive entry point.

Here are some of the key value-based criteria that look interesting about MFLX:

  • PEG Ratio of .76
  • Trailing PE of 3; Forward PE of 12
  • Increasing earnings estimates and a record of beating EPS estimates over the last 4 quarters.

In recent news,  MFLX reported Net Income of $13.7 million, or $0.54 per diluted share, an increase of 131 percent from $5.9 million, or $0.24 per diluted share, in the same period last year.  As reported by Yahoo Finance, Reza Meshgin, Chief Executive Officer of MFLEX, commented, "With outstanding operational execution during the third quarter, we achieved our fifth consecutive quarter of strong profitability with earnings per share more than doubling year-over-year.  We saw a sequential increase in net sales driven by new programs that ramped during the third quarter.  Gross margin also increased sequentially and exceeded our guidance range as we effectively managed the launch and ramp of these new programs.  Additionally, we generated strong cash flows during the quarter, growing our cash position to $168.5 million, an all-time high for MFLEX."

As for screener results, we look for stocks that have liquid trading volume and are priced in a "Bullish" zone.  Our next step is to deliver this screened list in our "volume surge" format, which highlights volume and price activity over recent, multiple timeframes.  In addition, technical criteria such as RSI and ADX are identified to help hone the list to those with more attractive technical features. Here is a current chart of MFLX and some technical highlights:

mflx111715

MFLX rose to the top of our value wrapper list recently, and we highlighted MFLX in our "call-out" list from November 9th. 

Gems such as MFLX pop up all the time.  Subscribers to BLA can download the Excel list wrapper report and review at their leisure (links to further research are provided).  Bottom line, our service streamlines your investment analysis by delivering targeted opportunities to your desktop on a regular basis.

Click here to review our Premium services and see how we compare to the competition!  We trust that you will be surprised at the breadth of services, and the price! 

 

 

The Williams Analytics LLC Blog has just posted a new article on the state of the US macroeconomy and what could be in store for the S&P 500 E-mini and 10-Year US Treasury Note.

As a brief preview, Real Personal Income and Real Retail sales are anticipated to increase in the coming year. Yet, while Real Personal Income is showing a clear decline in its momentum, Real Retail Sales are currently expected to experience a brief, year-over-year resurgence during the Holiday shopping season.

With respect to asset prices, the S&P 500 E-mini is showing a MASSIVE amount of overpricing, relative to the Williams Analytics Broad Asset Index. This overpricing is not seen in the 10-Year, despite the 10-Year's generally-positive price trend, making the S&P's dislocation all the more apparent. No other single word better describes the S&P 500 E-mini's price relationship better than "bubble".

Gain more detailed insights today by visiting the Williams Analytics Blog and by downloading Williams Analytics' many FREE Indicator Reports!

excelBaseline Analytics has posted a new stock scan wrapper report.  Each evening, Baseline Analytics scans over 6,000 equities and ETF's to identify timely entry conditions based on a variety of technical criteria.  The resulting list is filtered to present investment ideas focused on the themes of Growth, Value or Dividends.

The stocks are liquid (no thinly-traded instuments here) and are presented in our Volume Surge report format as a downloadable Excel report, instructions as to how to profit from the screen are included.

Click here to subscribe!  Learn more about Baseline Analytics TrendFlex Signals and Premium Services!

Best Regards,

Baseline Analytics

 

excelBaseline Analytics has posted a new stock scan wrapper report.  Each evening, Baseline Analytics scans over 6,000 equities and ETF's to identify timely entry conditions based on a variety of technical criteria.  The resulting list is filtered to present investment ideas focused on the themes of Growth, Value or Dividends.

The stocks are liquid (no thinly-traded instuments here) and are presented in our Volume Surge report format as a downloadable Excel report, instructions as to how to profit from the screen are included.

Click here to subscribe!  Learn more about Baseline Analytics TrendFlex Signals and Premium Services!

Best Regards,

Baseline Analytics

 

The Williams Analytics LLC Blog has just posted a new article on the state of the US labor market and what could be in store for the S&P 500 E-mini and 10-Year US Treasury Note.

As a brief preview, US labor market indicators are still showing positive gains throughout the year ahead but with slowing momentum. This view is consistent across most measures of labor market health and provides evidence that the lion's share of labor market gains are behind us.

With respect to asset prices, Williams Analytics is currently predicting a November drop and subsequent recovery in the S&P 500 E-mini. We are still anticipating a "V"-shaped price pattern for the 10-Year US Treasury Note over the coming year.

Gain more detailed insights today by visiting the Williams Analytics Blog and by downloading Williams Analytics' many FREE Indicator Reports!

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