Baseline Analytics Blog

Market risk assessment tools and tactical investment opportunities driven by curated financial insight

Dow Theory technicals are improving.  We look for confirmation in both the Dow and the Dow Transports.  A bullish environment for stocks is expressed when both hit new highs within a close timeframe of eachother.

Note the chart below.  We had a divergence when the Dow hit a new high July while Transports were bottoming yet firming.

Since then, the Dow has consolidated its gains from that high, while Transports have begun to show a firming uptrend. They have a ways to go to reach a new high, but the trend is constructive for bullish support for equities.

 

DT10252016

We've noted here before that the TED Spread tends to be rather effective in pointing out potential shifts in the market trend.  Note the peak that the TED Spread hit in mid-September.  Although the peak was not a perfect timing mechanism for a setback in the S&P 500, it did seem to foreshadow the decline we have seen in the past several trading days.

Lesson learned: Watch TED for a potential trend shift at TED extremes.

Today? Perhaps TED is telling us that the recent selloff is overdone.  We will keep an eye on TED.

 

TED10112016

We've noted here before that the TED Spread tends to be rather effective in pointing out potential shifts in the market trend.  Note the peak that the TED Spread hit in mid-September.  Although the peak was not a perfect timing mechanism for a setback in the S&P 500, it did seem to foreshadow the decline we have seen in the past several trading days.

Lesson learned: Watch TED for a potential trend shift at TED extremes.

Today? Perhaps TED is telling us that the recent selloff is overdone.  We will keep an eye on TED.

 

TED10112016

dvdsBaseline Analytics has refined a series of stock and ETF-screening algorithms that pinpoint timely, high-probability trades and investment opportunities.

The results of Baseline Analytics' stock and ETF screens are delivered in a downloadable Excel file.  This file can be sorted to identify various performance and technical criteria to help provide a further edge to your trading and investments. Instructions are provided to guide you through your review. Our goal is to deliver such opportunities at your fingertips, with minimal research and analysis needed on your end.  We do provide a link to Yahoo Finance for each of our timely picks should you want to delve further into particular equities or ETF's.

Baseline Analytics has published its list of the stocks going Ex-Dividend in September that exhibit favorable technical trends. Perhaps a dividend-payer or two will emerge as a timely, attractive investment. This list was developed following the 8/26/16 market close. 

This list is offered free of charge.  Please check out our Premium Services , currently offered as OPEN ACCESS!

Click here for the list.

Subscribers to Baseline Analytics receive our proprietary screens regularly, and this screen in particular will be honed even further for more targeted opportunities, including noteworthy fundamental and technical criteria.  Receive these updates as well as our TrendFlex family of market trend signals and risk assessment tools as a subscriber to Baseline Analytics.

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At the Thursday 9/22/16 market close, the TrendFlex Classic CR (Credit Risk Premium) signal shifted to a BUY.  See the updated chart below:

TFCCR09222016

At the same time, our TED Spread indicator pushed to a high also.  We take this as an indication of traders and investors chasing the uptrend.  We will not fight the tape however, preferring though to sit on the sidelines and watch this transpire.

Here's TED.  Another jolt upward (and notice how positively-correlated with the S&P 500 over the last two weeks, varying from its typical pattern):

TED09222016

 

At the Thursday 9/22/16 market close, the TrendFlex Classic CR (Credit Risk Premium) signal shifted to a BUY.  See the updated chart below:

TFCCR09222016

At the same time, our TED Spread indicator pushed to a high also.  We take this as an indication of traders and investors chasing the uptrend.  We will not fight the tape however, preferring though to sit on the sidelines and watch this transpire.

Here's TED.  Another jolt upward (and notice how positively-correlated with the S&P 500 over the last two weeks, varying from its typical pattern):

TED09222016

 

Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts! 

The TED Spread has taken another leap to a new recent high at mid-day today.  Extremes such as this have preceded a decline in the S&P 500. Today's activity bears watching.  

ted09162016

 

Follow for TrendFlex Signal and Blog Update Alerts!

 

The TrendFlex Score settled today at 1.71.  This is neither an extremely high reading, or an extremely low reading.  The "neutral" measure of the score suggests that this recent setback may be rather orderly and not indicative of significant further selling. We are impressed with the sharp increase in VIX, as a close 25% above its 50-day moving average (today it was 31% above) is a contrarian positive. 

TFS09142016

We look for a TRIN reading extreme as it surpasses its the 3.0 level.  Note that similar extremes preceded a turnaround in equities.  This behavior today convinced us to cover our e-Mini S&P 500 short hedge.  This may be just a short-term buy signal and we will review our other TrendFlex indicators to assess the health of the markets after this week's activity.

 

AATRIN09132016

Although the trading day is not over, the TrendFlex Classic Credit Risk signal has shifted to a SELL.  Will provide another update following today's market close.

 

TFCCR09092016a

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