Market Insight

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 7/20/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term Classic signal remains long. The long term Allegiance signal remains short but near a buy point (looking for confirmation). 

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Long 7/6/2018 +1.20% +1.20%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Short 5/212018 -2.50% +2.50%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.64 to 1.50 and closed below its three-week moving average, a bullish development. 

TFS07202018

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The Trend-Following systems rely on key technical indicators expressing the health of the current trend.  They tend to be longer-term indicators.The indicators include the TrendFlex Allegiance Trend-Following Signal and the S&P 500 Monthly System.

The TrendFlex Allegiance trend-following signal remains in uptrend mode.  The short-term TrendFlex Classic trend-following signal has been discontinued.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 +33.40% +33.40% 1.125
Historic Performance          

S&P 500 Monthly System

spxmonthly 

The S&P 500 Monthly System is based on a 20 period simple moving average. Buy and sell signals are triggered based on price vs. 20 period moving average. A short trade is established only after 2 years of the S&P 500 remaining above its 20 period moving average, then closes below its 20 period moving average. The short position is covered with a close of the index above its 10 period exponential moving average. 

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading
  4. The TED Spread (Peaks & Troughs)

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The momentum signal indicator is near a sell signal (see red arrow in chart below).

   nymo2

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

Index & Sector ETF Signals - 7/27/2018 Update
Index & Sector ETF Signals - 7/20/2018 Update

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