Market Insight

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/23/2018

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal remains short.. The longer term Allegiance signal shifted to a short position also, that date is marked at the market close of 3/14.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/20/2018 +4.90% -4.70%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Short 3/14/2018 +6.10% -5.70%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score increased  from 1.67 to 1.91 and closed above its three-week moving average, a bearish development.    

TFS03232018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

+2.30%

-2.30% 2.400
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 23.20% 23.20% 1.625
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme (especially the Put/Call ratio). The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities. 

vix03232018  

 

lqd03232018

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/30/2018
TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/16/2018

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