Market Insight

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/23/2018

 

TrendFlex Credit Risk Premium Signals (CR)

The short term TrendFlex Classic signal shifted to short at the 2/20 market close.  The longer term Allegiance signal remains long.  Click here for a primer on the TrendFlex Score and TrendFlex Signals.

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

S&P 500 timing signals based on credit risk (CR) premiums (corporate vs.Treasury debt). 
TrendFlex Classic CR Short 2/20/2018 -1.10% +1.10%
TrendFlex Allegiance CR Long 4/13/16 +36.10% +36.10%
Historic Performance        

 TrendFlex Score

The TrendFlex Score decreased from 1.74 to 1.71 and closed below its three-week moving average.    

TFS02232018

 

   TrendFlex Trend Following Signals (TF)

The TrendFlex Classic TF remains bearish, while Allegiance remains in uptrend.    

TrendFlex Signal Trend  Date  Return

S&P 500  Return

Score

S&P 500 timing signals based on a weighted score of US Market technical indicators. Classic (short-term) and Allegiance (intermediate to long term).  Score:  Bullish = 1.0-1.75; Neutral = 1.75-2.25; Bearish = 2.25-3.0

TrendFlex Classic TF Bearish 2/5/18

-3.60%

+3.70% 2.500
TrendFlex Allegiance TF Uptrend 5/31/16 30.80% 30.80% 1.375
Historic Performance          

 Baseline Analytics Extremes Indicators

Baseline Analytics Extremes highlights four key TrendFlex Indicators and their level of extreme readings.  The key indicators include the following:

  1. CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratio
  2. Moving Average Cross Momentum Signals
  3. LQD vs. S&P 500 GAP reading

When one or more of these indicators has reached an extreme reading, chart and commentary will follow. The VIX indicator remains at an extreme. The LQD indicator is also at an extreme that in the past has marked short-term bottoms in equities.  There are no extreme readings following thie week's market close. 

 

 

 

 Portfolio Strategy Table

The Portfolio Strategies chart remains bullish, with an edge toward risk-aversion.   

Portfolio Strategies*
Reduce Longs
 Sell Calls
 Hedge Longs
Set Stops on Longs
Short Overbought Equities
 Add to Longs
Sell Puts
Hedge or Reduce Shorts
 Long Futures and Options

 *Red highlighted items are recommended strategies

 

TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 3/2/2018
TrendFlex Score & TrendFlex Signals for 2/16/2018

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