Baseline Analytics Blog

TrendFlex CR Sell Signal Remains in Effect


Opportunity to hedge long positions continues.  The SELL signal for the S&P 500 established at the market close of November 9th has a positive return of +0.8%.  See the updated chart below:

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Sell Signal TrendFlex Classic CR


At the market close of 11/8/2017, the TrendFlex Classic CR signal avoided a SELL despite an intraday dip into SELL territory.  Today, the indicator has once again turned bearish, as can be seen in the chart below.  We require a close below its moving average, so at this time the SELL signal is not a done deal, but we suspect it will be and have noted today's market close as a new SELL signal.

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Pending Sell Signal TrendFlex Classic CR


The TrendFlex Classic CR indicator is heading toward a sell signal.  It has been on a buy signal since 9/14/17.  Confirmation will be based on a close below its moving average (see red circle to the right on the chart below).

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Low Volatility ETF's

There is a growing batch of US and global low-volatility ETF's - many of which sport decent dividend yields.  See this article by David Fabian of FMD Capital Management about the "Ins and Outs of Low Volatility ETF's."

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NYSE High/Low Ratio: Time for SPX to Take a Breather


In the chart below, see the section labeled "$NYHL."  The New York Stock Exchange High/Low Ratio shows peaks and troughs which correspond to peaks and troughs in the S&P 500.  The green lines are bullish equity signals, while the red are bearish.

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LQD Gap Extreme Is Growing


One of our extreme indicators is the gap in our LQD/IEF ratio vs. its moving average.  The chart below suggests that this gap, which has preceded past declines in the S&P500, may be forewarning a setback in equities.

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TrendFlex Signal Update - 8/17/17


The TrendFlex Classic CR remains in sell mode.  Next support for the S&P500 is 2425 with 2400 as major support.

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Short-term Negative Momentum Signals


At Baseline Analyitcs, we review about 30 key charts per day.  Two charts recently have flashed negative (bearish) indicators.

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TRIN Extreme Suggests Selling is Over-Done


Looking at the intra-day TRIN reading, note the sharp drop into extreme territory. Extreme dips in the past have led to short-term recoveries in the S&P 500.  

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327 Hits

Short Term Buy Opportunity Soon?


While the TrendFlex signals remain bullish, the VIX extreme has reached a level that suggests a bounce is in order. See the blue circle on the right. Based on support levels, we would look for another dip in the S&P 500 of 15-20 points to encourage long positions.

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337 Hits

Short Term Buy Opportunity Soon?

While the TrendFlex signals remain bullish, the VIX extreme has reached a level that suggests a bounce is in order.  Based on support levels, we would look for another dip in the S&P 500 of 15-20 points to encourage wading back into long positions.

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Dow Theory Divergence - Short Term Risk to Equities?


Note the divergence between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, reaching to new highs, and the lagging Transports. Another signal to hedge longs at this time.

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Extremes Suggesting a Hedge is in Order


Two measures we follow to spot extremes in equities are flashing red, suggesting time to put on a hedge.

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Short-term Potential Buy Setup


Market close update: The TrendFlex Classic CR signal has shifted to a BUY.

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TrendFlex CR Sell Signal


The TrendFlex Credit Rick (CR) timing signal shifted to sell today.  Normally we wait for one day's confirmation so the jury is still out until the markets close.  Should the signal remain below its moving average at today's close, it will represent the first short-term sell signal on the S&P 500 since the November 8th buy signal.  TrendFlex Allegiance CR, the longer-term signal, remains a buy.

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Green Shoots and Market Bottoms – A contrarian and rational perspective

Written by Puneet Gupta, Chief Investment Officer of The Absolute Return, LLC.    

The Global Financial Markets are a real-time barometer by which the health of the economy can be assessed and even predicted.  Just as high volatility tells you that something is very wrong, in the same way low volatility and rising or stable equity prices with broad market participation tell you that things are robust no matter what the gloom-and-doomers may be saying, or that seemingly stable prices but with narrow market participation tell you that the tide may be ripening for a turn.  Macroeconomic data of course is crucial even though it can be lagging, to inform and re-inforce the story derived from the markets.

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Checking in on the Trend Extremes - 2/26/17


As the equity indices continue to forge new highs, our TrendFlex extreme indicators, utilized to identify a potential change in the market trend, hover around neutral to extreme readings.

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Trend Change Risk Assessment: February 6, 2016


The TrendFlex Classic CR (“Credit Risk”) indicator is a short-term measure of the risk of a change in the trend of the S&P 500.  We follow this indicator versus a moving average line and note Buy and Sell signals as the indicator crossed up (Buy) or down (Sell) through its moving average. 

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A Neutral Reading in our "Extremes" Indicators


Taking a look at the CBOE VIX and Put/Call Ratios at today's close, it appears that one of our more consistent "Extremes" indicators has turned neutral.

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State of the Extremes as Equities Challenge their Highs


Two key indicators have reached extreme readings, which tend to precede shifts in the equity market trend.  

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